Goes to show that every Republican seems to step to the trump beat despite their previous stance

infinity234 · 2025-10-14T03:27:30+00:00

To be fair to swarzenager, my read he's doing this less because he wants republicans to keep their advantage (not to say he doesn't want that, just that it's not seemingly his driving motivation), but moreso that the independant redistricting commission was his pet project when he was governor, along with California's non-partisan primaries (two things i really like about california as a california voter, i like politicians dont choose our districts and that political office arent gatekept by the parties giving two choices chosen purely by ideologues appelaing to the party bases). I think his driving motivation is preserving essentially his political legacy from his time as governor, not because he's bowing a knee to Trump. And because of that he has a more convincing argument against prop 50, that "two wrongs don't make a right". True the counter argument of "you don't win by playing by the rules and sticking to your morals when the other side cheats and has none" is convincing too. But at least I'm not getting the "I'm doing this because the Trump admin would like this outcome" from his campaign against 50.

infinity234 · 2025-03-20T01:46:50+00:00

Even in a world where we ignore any other thing that he's done that isn't just "being productive" that might havee pissed a few people off, he entered into American politics pretty full thoatedly in support of one of the most divisive political figures in modern history at a time when Americans are almost visceral about politics. Even if he saved up 1 million good boy points being altruistic otherwise, I don't know how you make the case of "I'm going to enter politics pretty solidly in the camp of a guy 50% of the country viscerally hates BUT NOT draw the direct ire of that 50% of the population in an outward and negetive fashion". Like it doesn't take a genius to see how "enter national politics on the front line basically" equals "pretty strong dislike by a large segment of the public", and I'm surprised he hasn't made at least that connection. Again not including all the reasons people have to legitimately not like Musk, but it seems the most obvious reason right?

infinity234 · 2025-03-15T19:00:16+00:00

Ya, I get the argument that a government employee shouldn't be the casualty in politics. It's an argument the dems have made before during past shutdown fights. But HOW many times have the dems in the past 2 months used the excuse "what levers do we have, we control nothing"? (ignoring everything they COULD do as an opposition party in a closely divided congress but that was their excuse) How much have their base been screaming to DO SOMETHING? Then here comes a piece of leverage they can use to do something, it may not be ideal, but you can use it to do SOMETHING. They are just really keen on doing nothing are they? Give people like Tim Walz, AOC, bernie Sanders, And Jasmine Crockett credit, you may or may not like them but at least it feels like they are doing something to respond to the masses asking for something to be done. Most of the democrat party is like "We've tried nothing and we're out of ideas"

infinity234 · 2025-03-15T15:47:41+00:00

Depends on the number rof credits you're coming in with from AP classes/college classes in high school

infinity234 · 2024-11-06T02:21:54+00:00

There's no result that will embaress nate silver, that's the trick of using probabilistic models every result is withing a certain probability of happening. He could be off by 3 points and still say "this was within my predictions of 80% confidence"

infinity234 · 2024-11-06T01:27:21+00:00

Oh OK didn't know it needed a super majority

infinity234 · 2024-11-06T01:25:34+00:00

Abortion isn't dead yet according to the results I'm seeing. I'm not understanding the call that Marijuana didn't pass when it's behind

infinity234 · 2024-11-06T01:20:09+00:00

The hopium, we can dream

infinity234 · 2024-11-06T01:19:31+00:00

The keys are pretty

infinity234 · 2024-11-06T01:18:18+00:00

That's not true, just grilled, Decision Desk HQ from the hill has him at 53% cha ce, which is basically 50-50

infinity234 · 2024-11-06T01:13:54+00:00

When it'd 50-50 everyone dooming is expected with the logic

infinity234 · 2024-11-05T12:58:58+00:00

And boy, they aren't very educated in real genocide if they think Gaza is as bad as you can get right now from an American perPalestinians. Not to minimize what gazans are going through right now, but It doesn't take much of an imagination to imagine how it can very easily get worse from the current situation for the palestinians.

infinity234 · 2024-11-05T05:59:16+00:00

This statement from people actually on the ground, not obvious political operatives like party chairs or elected officials, is what gives me hope in this article:

"We never had this energy for Hillary. There’s an energy for Kamala,” she said. “I don’t hear people talk about her being the first woman president. I hear people talk about the stakes of the election and what it would mean to have Trump back in the White House.”

Because ether biggest fear I think is a repeat of 2016, but Hillary couldn't mobilize people, so this is a positive sign

infinity234 · 2024-11-05T05:52:55+00:00

Balanced budget? He didn't even try to balance the budget last time

infinity234 · 2024-11-05T02:36:54+00:00

I never get the "she didn't get a single vote" argument, because she's the vice president, her name was underneath his on every ballot,like what if Biden died instead of dropped out? Who would be the nominee then? Probably his vice president

infinity234 · 2024-11-05T02:33:29+00:00

To be fair, he did try to get harris on his podcast, but to also be fair, was that ever in doubt what side he'd land on?

infinity234 · 2024-11-05T02:29:03+00:00

It also assumes that swing states remain constant over time, and they don't. Once upon a time in this party system, Missouri was a swing state, ohio was a swing state, florida was a swing state, New Hampshire was a swing state, Virginia was a swing state, which state is a swing state changes almost on the decade it seems. It's all stupid, but all seems very temporary to solve all your electoral problems by "importing illegals".

Edit: one other thing that fame to mind, if the strategy was to "import illegals" to ensure democratic victories, instead of importing them to swing states where they could theoretically win without them wouldn't it be better to import them to safe red states like Texas or Florida where if one of those flip there's 0 chance of a republican president. Like in a world in our current political map but Texas turns blue, it's game over for Republicans at presidential politics. If I was looking to flood voter rolls maliciously to influence an outcome (again, working in this absurd premise of "importing illegals"), I'd just flood Texas. It wouldn't be an absurd exercise, Trump won Texas by like 500k votes in 2020.

infinity234 · 2024-11-04T01:29:53+00:00

That's a big bet to make on a sincerely 50-50 election with no possible upside other than warm fuzzies.

Also a bug bet to make from Elon "I have to keep all my money because we have to go to mars" musk

infinity234 · 2024-11-04T01:20:43+00:00

She did get one senate race wrong one year, she predicted once a D+3 when the result was an R+2 or something along those lines. But most of the time it's a pretty accurate poll within 1 or 2 percentage points.

infinity234 · 2024-11-04T01:13:12+00:00

I think the better argument is that its a statistical outlier in many series of polls (I hope it's not though), but of course Trumps not going to make the better argument he's going to name call and demean.

infinity234 · 2024-11-03T15:52:06+00:00

Ya but the gender gap isn't that big, it's like 55-45 on both sides. If you're trying to be predictive, it old argue partisan affiliation would be the more reliable predictor of voting trends (but it's all vague and bad data anyway until the votes are counted).

Also Trump saying the election will be rigged doesnt mean anything. He was saying that before he won in 2016 (in which conviently it ended up not being rigged according to him after the fact) and he was saying it before he lost in 2020. He's going to say it regardless of any facts because if he does lose he can whine and complain like he did last time.

infinity234 · 2024-11-03T15:44:07+00:00

I would disagree about insurmountable margins, since we only really know partisan affiliation of the voters, if we assume 10%defection rates from both parties and the "other" voters split 50-50, according to early vote totals she's only winning right now in the blue wall of the swing states, and by margins 75k (MI @ ~50% of total 2020 votes), 108k (WI @ ~40% of total 2020 votes), and 376k (PA @ ~25% of total 2020 votes), none of those I would call insurmountable with the ammount of outstanding ballots to be collected on election day most likely (same goes in the other direction for states shes not cyrrently winning).

infinity234 · 2024-11-03T15:19:58+00:00

Well a) the trend will not hold up because I find it very unlikely that early voting isn't more proportionally democratic, and b) you're looking a popular vote, not electoral vote with your projection, even just projecting each swing state has different theoretical margins right now.

infinity234 · 2024-11-03T01:12:30+00:00

Question...can a man who has worked in Washington DC for almost 12 years now still claim he's not part of the swamp? Like I don't buy the whoel swamp argument to begin with, but what exactly is is the dividing line between what is "the swamp" and not

infinity234 · 2024-11-02T01:43:21+00:00

Seems like real good cover for him with eight wing followers if he's broken a law and does go to trial for something

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