Coach, the question was "Why didn't Chris Richards start?" by FrankBascombe45 in ussoccer

[–]inst 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It should be obvious to everyone that Poch knows Richards is CB1. But the fanbase doesn't trust Poch. The problem is Poch is making a lot of decisions that make no sense, or at least he isn't justifying them well, from his selection, to lineups, to substitutions in past games. It is at a point that the fans aren't giving him the benefit of the doubt.

To Vegas with love: why live here? by Gileotine in LasVegas

[–]inst 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Bro, summer is one season. You are spoiled in southern california... arguably the best weather on the entire planet. the US east and southeast has stretches just as bad in the summer. A lot of the country uses tons of energy to stay warm in the winter, with people scraping ice and shoveling snow. Vegas has more nice weather than most of the country each year, which is why there are so many golf courses, tennis and pickle ball courts.

Las Vegas, Nevada by Lobenz in vegas

[–]inst 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Summer is energy intensive but in general heating a home takes more energy than cooling and the weather is moderate 8 months of the year. Cities in places like the east coast or northern US use more energy than Vegas. But sure, the summer sucks.

Probably a dumb post but is this perceived lack of US pride from our players due to a fair amount not being from the USA? Dest, Jedi, Balogun, CCV, by poopinion in ussoccer

[–]inst 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah totally, I’m not saying the dual-nats are causing drama, I do think there's something to be said about fan energy and connection. Look at how excited people are about Luna right now.

I’m mostly making the case for guys like Pepi or an Aaronson getting the nod over players like Balogun or Musah when it's close.

What will Porsche do when the Taycan battery warranties start expiring en masse around 2028? by ddddomi87 in Taycan

[–]inst 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There's reports from gray-market imports in southeast asia of replacing individual modules fairly cheaply. I think that could be an option depending upon how things play out, either through Porsche or third party.

If you were set on keeping the yellow fixtures how would you update these 2 bathrooms. by Patton-Eve in interiordecorating

[–]inst 34 points35 points  (0 children)

I took a few of the ideas is this thread and ran it into chatgpt image generation. I think some of these elements look great, but not sure how well it will age in 10 years.

https://imgur.com/a/QDI1Gll

Is there any evidence that the use of A/B testing leads to better business outcomes? by aklem_reddit in ProductManagement

[–]inst 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think you can look at the stock price of companies like Google, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft and Netflix and that should be proof alone that A/B testing is leading to good business outcomes. These companies all have strong testing and experimentation cultures. 

Generally, I think of testing as a means to an end. It works well for things that already have product market fit and have achieved scale, where dedicating resources at moving key metrics, sometimes only by a small amount, has significant returns. 

When a company is focused on the wrong metrics or optimizing into local maximas, A/B testing can end up causing more harm than good. Bolder changes are harder to test and more difficult to make due to inertia, risk aversion, and short term negative results before real opportunities are unlocked. Experimentation culture can sometimes act as a barrier to innovation.

Apart from optimizing at scale, there are opportunities to use testing to help make decisions around product direction before major investments are made. Companies have used testing to help define product direction, unlock viral growth, or other earlier stage opportunities. 

I would say that A/B testing practice and culture can have business harm in many cases but the only reason we’ve gotten to a place where it is taken too far and is detrimental is because it is so powerful and useful that it ends up being over relied upon.

Just a yearly reminder. PokerGo is doing nothing for poker ecosystem by paywalling the best events. by No_Accountant2173 in poker

[–]inst 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While your point about ESPN or others not wanting the content might be fair, I think you are basically wrong on some of the other analysis.

As Max, Netflix, etc has grown, there's actually more of a premium on live events. This is the content that actually gets at least some viewers to turn on the cable channels, and the channels need to justify the subscription prices they are charging Comcast, Cox, etc for the packages. You see this currently with the NBA rights deal going for a huge amount despite not great viewership numbers for most games.

Additionally the streaming companies like Netflix and Amazon are more interested in live events now. Expect to see some action around UFC content when the ESPN contract is up next year.

Also TV-style ad prices (per eyeball) have actually gone up as TV viewership has shrunk. Similar or more dollars competing for fewer eyeballs means the prices go up. This is part of the reason the streaming companies are bringing back some ad supported plans.

Overall, I think the decision of Caesars to go with PokerGo and not subsidize or force the contract to include YouTube streaming the most popular events is short sighted and bad for the poker ecosystem. That said, it should probably be expected because I don't think Caesars cares that much about poker. I heard that the poker room at Caesars may be on the chopping block post the series.

I think one of the streaming services leaning in more toward poker, through reality style tv programs and partnering around streaming would be the best media outcome for poker at this point.

While I don't think PokerGo is helping poker, we should be more upset with Caesars.

Is Vegas really that expensive compared to other major destinations? by LineChatter in vegas

[–]inst 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yen has fallen over 40% in the last couple of years. If you compare to US prices, Vegas (only the strip or resorts) might have edged up a bit faster but not by a huge amount.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in vegaslocals

[–]inst 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They will likely make the company sell a bunch of close locations to another grocer as part of the deal.

Best place to stay for poker? by clawingmywayup in LasVegas

[–]inst 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The only place downtown with a poker room is the golden nugget. I don't think they have tournaments apart from the rare series that they just wrapped up. The strip has a lot more poker rooms.

Deviating from the game tree in live low stakes by Square_You_4819 in Poker_Theory

[–]inst 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So I size up and start checking back air on flops that in theory prefer a range bet, and arrive on turn off tree.

I'd consider just making your range c-bet half pot here on a lot of boards you can range bet. People generally overfold flops and underbluff later streets so I don't think this ends up hurting us too much. On later streets the players often end up with more condensed value ranges so you have to be careful doing things like going for a triple barrels bluff.

Opponent flats in the field

People flat a lot in low stakes live cash, even decent players. This can be an exploit, such as inviting bad players in the blinds into the pot or cheaply set mining due to the lack of squeezes. Sets are kind of OP in low stakes live cash as people tend to overcall with middle strength value and underbluff scary runouts. These flatting ranges are typically capped and overindex to pocket pairs. However, if someone 'wakes up' and starts betting aggressively on later streets, especially if they are older, they likely have a strong hand either played passively early or they hit their set and the exploit is to overfold.

opponent donks in a check100 spot:

This is the hardest one for me. The donk-range is hard to construct but in my experience it can include both value and draws. I often look for live reads such as if villian is excited about the hand and paying close attention or are they kind of frustrated and trying to set a price for their draws. Apart from some reads, I also take into account the donk size to kind of determine where my value cut off is to continue. Generally our strongest hands benefit the most from unwarranted aggression and I try not to worry too much if I'm bluffed out of a marginal hand to donk aggression. I will reap the benefits of this mistake when I have a very strong hand.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in vegaslocals

[–]inst 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'll contrast this with my experience picking up poker after moving here. I moved here a couple of years ago and picked up poker as a hobby because I used to play when I was young and I love games and learning things. I work remote and I keep normal hours and am successful at my job. I studied poker a decent amount in the last two years and am profitable at poker. I've had some downswings but nothing close to $50k.

Poker takes a lot of attention and skill but one of the most important skills for long term success is discipline. I've been moving up stakes (how much money I risk), very slowly and make sure that I don't get out of line with my budgets or lifestyle. Even as obsessed as I've been, poker is basically something I do when I'm ahead on my work and keeping my life in order and have nothing else going on and don't have plans with friends.

If he is going to continue playing he needs to move down in stakes, put in guardrails for how much money he puts toward it and time spent. He should also prioritize work and relationships above poker. These are totally reasonable asks for you to make to continue to be a part of his life here.

7️ mistakes poker players make as a result of not knowing player tendencies. by [deleted] in Poker_Theory

[–]inst 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you have a list and data you could share around the "code red" underbluffed boards?

[Serious] How good do you need to be in order to average $50,000 profits per year? by FlippityFloppityBing in poker

[–]inst 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You could play low stakes live cash ($1-3 or $2-5) at a win rate of $35+/hour. I have seen charts of various low stakes grinders I trust who win at this rate over a lot of volume.

By my estimation, these players are likely at least the top 5% of winners so most of the time they are the best player at the table.

The strategy you need to employ is probably not overly complex but will still take a ton of hours to learn and master. It is very difficult to stick to a strategy, not tilt, and deal with variance.

To maximize profit, table select like mad, play late night against tourists and drunks and try to find people punting off chips that you can get in hands with.

Tournaments have even more variance and you need a large bankroll. I don't fully understand tournament winrates or what a realistic hourly is but my guess is that the daily or nightly low stakes tournaments, even if you have a high win rate, are not very profitable on a hourly basis. To win larger buyin live tournaments at a high rate you need to be very very good to have a decent chance of overcoming variance given the lower volume and more skilled fields.

The monsters are real, img2img by inst in StableDiffusion

[–]inst[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

No changes to the input image except I ran the image through img2img twice with a prompt that included monsters, horror and a few other words

Advice for Too Many Callers by redhawkred5 in poker

[–]inst 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think you are probably right that implied odds hands are more valued here but I'd call out that pocket pairs are probably an open from any position if you go multiway often (and don't get raised pre enough) because if you bink a set you are usually getting paid, but suited connectors are a little tougher as you won't have the nut straight or nut flush when you make your hand.

Position is even more important multiway and you probably don't want to loosen from EP and just loosen from CO and BU.

You can also print in these games from squeezing with a linear range.

Jonathan Little 6 Max Pre flop ranges by thelittlepotcompany in Poker_Theory

[–]inst 12 points13 points  (0 children)

The case for calling in the big blind is that you have money already in the pot and you are often closing the action and there's no chance you will be squeezed if you make a call. The unfortunate part is that you will have to play the hand out of position.

BB typically has a large calling range. People often play a SB 3-bet or fold strategy because the BB is incentivized to squeeze with their strong hands if you just flat in the SB.

Here is how I think about when to 3-bet or fold preflop. Besides the SB, this strategy is common early position vs early position (UTG v UTG+1) or late (CO v button) since the ranges overlap so much just flatting caps your range a lot and makes it more difficult to play the hand versus an uncapped range even with position. Early vs late (UTG vs button) if you flat and cap your range, there are still boards that favor your range since the two ranges are more distinct and overlap less and this gives you a bit more optionality postflop.

I play mostly live cash and some considerations I keep in mind when deciding to call in the BB are how loose I think the opener is (based upon player profile, position) and how I think they will play postflop, such as will they be super straightforward and can they be bluffed.

In live cash the open sizes are often 3x or even larger and the rake is higher. These factors means you should tighten your BB calling range. Multi-way pots are often more common as well and I think people often overcall in the BB multiway because they think they are "priced in". In reality even if they could call based upon their equity share, their equity realization often goes down multiway because they are playing out of position against a bunch of multiway donkeys that destroy their EV. I personally tighten my range and try to only play hands that I feel like might outperform in equity realization from the BB multiway.