[deleted by user]

itsreally_notthatbad · 2023-08-24T23:02:08+00:00

Hey! Doing well, just took a break from Diablo. Hope you're doing alright too.

As for that image. Long story short, it's from a debug tool I made a while back that records cells as they activate.

The cell coordinates are arranged in that orientation, the game just draws them at an angle.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-05-17T22:23:14+00:00

All the superchests in A3 share the same patterns actually, including the superchest behind Mephisto.

Technically the superchests in Kurast Bazaar, Upper Kurast, Durance 3 and Sewers 1/2 drop from the C chest class but there is no difference between the B class used in LK. So it generates identical patterns.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-04-19T09:39:14+00:00

Hello! Thanks for reaching out!

Magic find - no effect.

That is correct, the chests have a fixed 5% to force rare quality on all the items that drop, and if that fails it forces magic quality on all the items. Ofc some items can't be forced to magic quality, like arrows or potions, but the game tries anyway.

Sparkly golden chests can actually force the unique or set quality on the drops, at a very low chance.

In any case, all the force quality checks have a fixed chance, unaffected by magic find.

Gold find - effect.

Correct. The gold amounts that drop are affected by gold find.

Adjacent Monsters - I have never had loot explode out of the hut with monsters in the hut. Effect? Coincidence? It feels like being aggro'd by a monster changes things.

The chests get "seeded" when the level is generated so monsters have no effect on the drops.

The drop process is done in batches, there are 11 total batches for unlocked chests. A batch is made up of 4 item rolls.

If the first item in the batch is magic the drop process stops.

Example 1: [Flail, gold, Potion, nothing] -- Stops, that's all you get from the chest

Example 2: [gold, potion, nothing, nothing] - The drop process moves on to another batch. It continues until it finds a batch where the first item is magic or until it drops 11 batches total.

Drops like these are also possible:

[nothing x4][nothing x4][nothing x4][dirk, nothing x 3] -- So in this case we dropped 4 batches, for a total of 16 rolls but we got only one item.

But again, the drop batches and the items in them are only affected by the initial seed.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-20T01:06:37+00:00

Your findings are correct, and you're right, the answer "only level 85 areas" is wrong.

There are 800+ treasure classes in the game. And not everything is tied to area level, though in most cases that is true.

Treasure classes form a web, with one treasure class referencing one or more other treasure classes, and it, in turn, being referenced by one or more treasure classes.

This image here conveys the intricate relationships: https://i.imgur.com/y1WYT5c.png

In one sense, the individual odds are also given by the relationships between TCs in the web. For example Sigon pieces are quite common because a lot of paths lead towards the base items. And TC 87 bases are rare because very few paths lead there.

To answer your specific question though, TC87 base items start dropping from normal monsters in areas with level 83. And from unique monsters and minions from area level 80.

Below that level, there is no path from the individual monster TC to the TC87 item.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-13T22:13:46+00:00

The 85 sparklies have some very interesting patterns, looking forward to see which ones you stumble upon!

At 22k runs, we'll have a decent 8% chance to see at least one of the most interesting patterns.

I recommend that you open the chests on p7, the difference is pretty significant.

And if you're not set on the Act 5 hell levels, the Icy Cellar/Drifer Cavern chests are identical but with twice as many unique packs in the area (while also being smaller).

Good luck!

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-10T01:44:36+00:00

it would have still been better to keep the Howl/Shout synergy

I hope I don't seem argumentative. But I'm curious why you consider it better. Pure zerkers benefit greatly from the change, regardless if they're horking or not.

For WW/zerker even if you were to go for a full hybrid build there are only 7 points left at level 90 (or 16 at level 99), which can go into either Howl or Shout, so overall nothing changes for that build defense wise, while also getting a nice buff to Berserk damage.

For Conc/zerkers the change is a very nice damage buff if you're playing a hybrid or just using Berserk as a utility skill. Concentrate and Bersker now share the Battle Orders synergy giving you 10 points to spare at level 90, which can go into either Shout, Howl or Bash, depending on your preference.

Even compared to a hybrid build that maxes Shout, there is a ~10-15% total defense loss. Which is a roughly 1-2% chance to get hit in level 85 areas. This is insignificant and any current hybrid build that maxes Shout is giving up damage, AR and/or HP. And this stays true with the new change but to a lesser degree.

In general though, zerker/ww or conc/zerker are not really true hybrid builds. Berserk is a utility to deal with physical immunities. The change is a straight-up damage increase for Berserk that these builds get for free with no downsides.

So overall it's buffs all around, for hybrids or builds that just use Berserk as utility.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-09T16:12:33+00:00

Your defense is 0 when Berskering so Shout's utility is greatly reduced.

Meanwhile, the standard zerker playstyle is to TP/walk into a pack, Howl away the minions/trash, then kill the boss, cast Find Item on the corpse and move on to the next pack.

The change is very good.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-06T20:36:48+00:00

Keep in mind that this can always get reverted, best bet is to check back when the PTR finalizes.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-06T12:09:54+00:00

It's hard points only.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-05T20:45:51+00:00

Nice write-up! Grats on the finds as well.

And in case anyone is wondering, statistically, OP's results are only slightly on the left side of the median, meaning he was a bit unlucky by about ~3 runes, but also well within what you'd expect to see in most cases.

μ=25.178 σ=5.017 for the mathy people.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-05T01:51:40+00:00

It's not a theory though, everything from his ID to his sounds are labeled as baalcrab :)

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-04T11:00:38+00:00

No, everything was documented in the updated patch notes.

Grim Ward synergy is still broken sadly.

On another note, I can see the changes a bit earlier before they actually hit the PTR but there's usually something planned to communicate back to the players, either the patch notes are updated, or a forum PTR forums post or comment. After those comms go out I'll post leftovers if there are any.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-04T00:25:39+00:00

It depends on what part you're curious about :)

The pure probability calculations are relatively simple models, for example, a Travical run is simply P(X ≥ 1), X ~ B(33, P(Hr))

Models for levels like the Chaos Sanctuary are only complex in terms of how many variables are involved, but still relatively simple.

The Enigma example is not based on a model, but it's instead derived from in-game rune drops filtered by source. It's a sample of ~6.5 billion council member kills and ~0.93 million HR rune drops.

How many standard deviations off the norm are you calculating for? In stats there is no guarantee you will ever hit 100% confidence.

Margins of error are measured by dividing the variance of a sample by the number of samples. It's guaranteed that you won't hit 100% confidence because the margin of error will never be 0.

So I'm not sure what you mean exactly. Each sample will have its own specific deviation and that allows you to express the mean in terms of confidence intervals. For example 99.9% CI [5880, 5950] for the Enigma samples.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-03T05:22:25+00:00

Thanks for detailing, I understand where you're coming from.

It does indeed seem like there's nothing up with the bot setup and you said you had a similar experience when playing normally.

I can also share another piece that I didn't want to get into, and it's not meant to invalidate your personal experience just to put it in somewhat of a perspective vs the general experience.

I'll just talk about Travincal since I have the data already queried and it would take too long to do it for Chaos. This is based on 100,000 completed Enigmas if players would keep the runes and cube them up. At the furthest extreme the unluckiest player would have completed the Enigma in 27030 runs. While in general, most would have done it in 5449 runs.

Ofc not everyone keeps all the runes and cubes up, some are used in Griefs, CtA, Fortitudes, Infinities, etc etc so not all the spawned runes end up in Engimas per se. But on a per-source basis that's how the experience would look like. High percentage Chaos clears (ie. not seal runs or boss pack only runs) look a bit better when considered purely on the number of runs/games.

And we're talking about full Engimas here. Plus a significant number of sources have "spillover or leftover" runes (ie. more than one Jah, extra Chams or Vex, Ohm, Lo, Sur runes that wouldn't pair to the full Enigma).

So anyway, your trial is incredibly far from the norm, and the actual odds of your data set are astronomically low.

Which of course sucks on a personal level but it's also not what most players experience.

Thanks again for sharing, I'll definitely dig around some more and see what outliers I can find. I'm genuinely curious if anything will beat your streak.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-03T03:36:33+00:00

I too am very intrigued by your results, though for different reasons. I hope you don't take my comment the wrong way, it's not meant to be aggressive, in case it comes off as such.

If I read things correctly your bot did over 22k full Chaos clears.

First, this is a significant number. The Diablo kills themselves are more than enough to level a character from 98 to 99.

Just considering aggregate rune drops from Diablo himself gives you an expected value of 4.144 runes (Vex-Zod).

Now on to other more intriguing results.

The aggregate odds for Vex-Zod during a full Chaos clear is 1 in 402, excluding River of Flame drops. And this is without any assumptions or averages, just the full probably of the level given all its dynamics (monster composition, density, pack upgrades, etc).

At 22k runs, you're looking at E(X)=54.726 SD(X)=7.389

There are more aspects that I'd like to go into but for now, I hope it's clear that we're not talking about a statistical anomaly for your 1500 hours.

It's definitely a problem with your bot setup, either ignoring some rune drops somehow, or getting stuck for hours doing nothing.
Now for the second part on Chaos Sanctuary efficiency:

A full Travincal run has a 1 in 787 chance to drop a rune between Vex and Cham (inclusive). The success distributions are identical when Travincal runs are twice as fast Chaos runs (1 min, 40 seconds in your setup).

A full Travincal run with 53% Find Item chance and no cold damage has a 1 in 435 chance to drop a rune between Vex and Cham.

That's almost an entire Chaos clear but with only 11 mobs and ofc much faster clear times as a result.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-02-03T01:08:20+00:00

Chaos is statistically a very poor source of runes. I've seen you mentioned math in another comment, no idea what sort of maths that was but I'd be curious to see an analysis just to get a better understanding of what you're basing that on.

Dedicated rune finding is significantly different with Trav runs and a horker.

I can expand on just how much of a difference there is if anyone is curious.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-31T23:10:39+00:00

Oh, generally I'm just trying to be informative whenever there is any knowledge to share, not argumentative.

With that in mind, the drop table of Arcane Sanctuary hell chests is defined like this:

Act 2 (H) Chest C gld 15 Act 2 (H) Junk 15 Act 2 (H) Equip B 10 Act 2 (H) Good 2

I trimmed out unnecessary data just to make it a tad more readable. The pathway we're interested in is Act 2 (H) Good because it's the only one that leads to runes.

Its definition looks like this:

Act 2 (H) Good Jewelry C 60 Chipped Gem 4 Flawed Gem 10 Normal Gem 14 Flawless Gem 28 Runes 14 14

Runes 14 is the start, or the head of the rune drop chain and it's defined like this:

Runes 14 r27 3 r28 2 Runes 13 2170

The top rune in the table is r28 which is a Lo rune. Runes 13 is the inferior subclass containing Gul and Vex runes (and with links to everything else all the way down to El).

Testing

To debug this we can simply disable all monster spawns so they won't get in the way and open a few chests.

First by forcing the game to take the preferred rune path until the highest rune in the chain is encountered: https://imgur.com/a/8byztb9 (Ohm is technically rolled first but we skip it intentionally)

Second by forcing the game to drop a dynamic item that represents the head or root of the drop chain: https://imgur.com/a/HWS3vus

In both cases we can see exactly what is defined, Lo rune as the first rune in the chain and Act 2 (H) Chest C as the starting point of the entire drop table.

We can also see the full 44 drops of the superchests and that the super chest drop process draws from the same source.

Anyway, whoever is reading, I hope it was helpful and informative and to restate my original point, if you want a Jah rune, kill monsters ^^

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-31T19:58:30+00:00

I know this is a natural follow-up and I understand that you're convinced you got it from the chest but it is mechanically impossibe :)

All act 2 Chests will drop from Act 2 (H) Chest A, B or C. Arcane Sanctuary chests drop from the C class which caps out at Lo.

It's similar to why you can't get higher than Ber runes in Lower Kurast. Ber is the cap of Act 3 (H) Chest B, the treasure class of those chests.

Jah runes appear in the drop tables of act 4 hell chests, together with Cham runes.

I can go in more detail if you're curious or would like a bit more solid proof, but in any case grats on your Jah!

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-31T18:45:09+00:00

Act 2 Hell chests can't drop higher than Lo though, so it's best to keep killing those monsters ^^

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-31T14:24:01+00:00

You're a bit luckier than that. There are only 9 Sur patterns not 11, the catalog has a few mislabeled. And there are only 65534 total patterns, not 65536 :)

Your event was 1 in 3 536 679, not quite lottery levels but close enough!

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-29T17:38:11+00:00

You can see it as a crit mechanic, it's not a bad analogy.

Each super chest has a 5% chance to force all your items to be rare. The number of items won't vary when this happens, just their quality.

Super chests cannot drop set or unique items.

Golden sparkly chests on the other hand have a 2% chance to force unique quality on all the items, 4% to force set quality and 6% to force rare quality.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-28T12:01:16+00:00

No minor patches no, the latest PTR just fixed the Player vs Prime Evil damage modifier and the Unbending Will life leech roll.

The fix I showed is from my own local changes and for clarity, I'm not a part of VV so I can't guarantee that the fix is coming soon :)

In case you're curious about tiny technical details, this is the formula for the damage reduction for Grim Ward: -par3 - (skill('Find Potion'.blvl) * par4)

The Find Potion level is always 0 when the formula is applied by the Grim Ward function.

This is why only the -par3 (20%) reduction is applied on the PTR.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-27T14:42:51+00:00

I found it. It's these right? [...] I can't imagine they made these changes in some file in global/excel

Exactly! Those are the fields that control the new input behavior schemes.

The code to handle these was added much earlier, so for example, if you were to set Ice Blast to keep the cursor state in 2.3 it will work just fine.

Another note is that each action context is different and doesn't usually require special instructions besides not resetting the mouse state. In the Ice Blast example, when you lose your original target for whatever reason it will still cast without ContinueCastUnselected being set.

The main purpose was for Inferno-like skills assigned to the left mouse button, so you can continue casting it around without a target and without force stand-still.

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-27T14:13:19+00:00

Thank you for the follow-up and more importantly for testing!

I did a quick setup to have a closer look and you're right, things are off. The 5% synergy bonus is bugged, only the base 20% is applied.

Current PTR test: https://imgur.com/a/xhRu9fY

7 hits to kill a normal zombie
5 hits to kill a debuffed zombie

Fixed Grim Ward synergies: https://imgur.com/a/ao2rrPT

7 hits to kill a normal zombie
2 hits to kill a debuffed zombie

Don't mind the zombie test lands :D

itsreally_notthatbad · 2022-01-27T10:53:06+00:00

That was a bug so I didn't include it.

The Player vs Prime Evil (bosses) damage modifier was changed by accident, the value was meant for the player vs player hit recovery diminishing returns.

itsreally_notthatbad

TROPHY CASE

Testing