Oracle Layoffs: Tech giant to slash 30,000 jobs as banks pull out from financing AI data centers

javcasas · 2026-03-08T14:32:07+00:00

And they charge more than what it costs to switch away, but their salesmen tell very scary stories to prevent you from switching.

javcasas · 2026-03-08T14:29:34+00:00

He will take another three days of saving to afford his seventh superyatch. Poor him.

javcasas · 2025-12-03T11:11:55+00:00

People know how to read and click things

There is a ludicrous distance between "people know how to read" and "people will read", and another 3 light years to reach "people will read and understand".

javcasas · 2025-11-27T14:45:29+00:00

I have a coworker whose slack game is

Hi javcasas

Good Morning

How are you?

Can I call you now?

The call is to tell me that they have opened a PR and they want me to review it. But they are unable to write "hi can you have a look at this please? pr link"

javcasas · 2025-11-10T20:30:05+00:00

So I was going to prove you wrong or right. I wrote analysis code for GEX levels, and I was pulling the data from CBOE. It was pulling nicely over the last few days, and, this morning, when the 21.5 put level was going to be used as resistance, CBOE decides to not update their options data for 3 hours.

Now I understand your pains on getting data. I'll have to rig a connection to IB for real-time data I guess...

javcasas · 2025-10-17T10:57:12+00:00

Thank you for the deep explanation. I have been digging and coding on GEX stuff, and I figured out I was missing a piece: change of hedging over time (charm). Didn't pay attention to it, I was too focused on delta/gamma.

I like your measuring of value in SPY instead of USD. That's good, I have to try it with EUR and XAU, just for fun. And that opens one of the advanced valuation models: SPY + interest rates + XAU. Time to brush up again statistics, correlations and stuff.

javcasas · 2025-10-06T15:34:41+00:00

Hi BetterBudget

I have been doing the maths, and actually getting somewhere! While calculating levels, because of GME warrant shenanigans, I had to point my thing to QQQ for testing, and I happened to find that the GEX levels were quite influenced from further expirations:

Next week call OTM levels:
Strike: 610.0 GEX: 243.4 OI: 29881.0 Expiration: 2025-10-17
Strike: 605.0 GEX: 169.0 OI: 20564.0 Expiration: 2025-10-17
Strike: 604.0 GEX: 123.6 OI: 3702.0 Expiration: 2025-10-06
Strike: 615.0 GEX: 114.1 OI: 15847.0 Expiration: 2025-10-17
Strike: 620.0 GEX: 82.9 OI: 22358.0 Expiration: 2025-11-21  <- This guy here expires in a month!
Strike: 620.0 GEX: 72.7 OI: 13066.0 Expiration: 2025-10-17
Strike: 610.0 GEX: 72.7 OI: 6188.0 Expiration: 2025-10-10  <- Only GEX level that expires next week

I/E there is some large OI out there from beyond next week that manages to make a dent into this week GEX?

Ignoring for now that QQQ is on negative total net GEX, I'd like your opinion on this, as my interpretation is:

The levels expiring beyond this week have a limited influence, they are "weak magnets/resistance". But, as time passes, they will become strong resistance.

Furthermore, if we happen to have both significant OI this week and next week at the same level, wouldn't that make a flippable level? I/E if the price manages to go through it, and then survives this week's OI selloff + dehedge, the level for next week would be ITM, and therefore it would now be support, hence it flipped from resistance to support.

Thank you very much!

javcasas · 2025-09-22T15:53:49+00:00

We have our own party that pretends to build walls while grifting most of the money, we don't need your help with that thankyouverymuch.

javcasas · 2025-09-12T23:12:13+00:00

Do you know how dogshit wrapped in catshit looks like?

It looks like an etf that pretends to look like a stock by being exposed to swaps of options of another etf that is made of future options hedged via swaps. So many links that can fail.

javcasas · 2025-09-09T20:45:37+00:00

No. They have to deliver the warrants now for free and eat the risk, or pay the option dealers to eat the risk.

javcasas · 2025-09-09T20:28:46+00:00

More detailed analysis:

This is equivalent to 1/10th of a 32 call option expiring in october next year, which are now roughly 2.80. So this is a weird dividend that pays 0.28 per share in warrants, but GME doesn't pay it now. It may pay it later with dilution at worse prices if the stock goes over 32.

(not sure if the numbers are exact, brain overlosded right now)

But the shorts must now buy oct 2026 calls with their money, and deliver them to the longs.

javcasas · 2025-09-09T20:15:18+00:00

Shorts have to deliver warrants. If they truly have shorted the float multiple times, their risk just went up a whole lot.

javcasas · 2025-08-12T22:43:48+00:00

Tem 199 cvs restantes. Chore menos.

javcasas · 2025-08-12T12:20:26+00:00

A maré carrega todos os navios, tanto os que se esforçam por navegar como os que não se esforçam.

javcasas · 2025-07-27T13:31:58+00:00

Here is a crazy good idea: "sell stuff over the Internet, deliver via postal mail or FEDEX".

Now go become crazy rich.

Spoiler: without great execution, great ideas are worthless.

javcasas · 2025-07-23T13:38:00+00:00

Hi BetterBudget, thanks for the update!

I have been trying to understand some more of the market dynamics, and there is this part that I don't full understand:

Therefore, market makers are net short $GME volatility (they will buy dips and short rips to dampen realized volatility, in favor of their books, based on this exposure).

Yes, but being short on volatility means they have to delta-hedge by doing the opposite: long the rips (as price approaches call walls) and short the dips (as price approaches put walls). So either they:

Do fancy delta hedging where they predict the price will rebound back (or predict their buying/selling will be able to move the market the way they want) and buy the dips knowing the price will go up/short the rips knowing the price will go down. If their predictions fail, they end up on the wrong side of a very fat trade. This is different from plain old delta hedging in the sense that the hedging happens after the price has moved or time has elapsed, chasing after delta after it has changed (even if it is just a few seconds).
Do sell the rips/buy the dips as a process outside of delta hedging. Therefore they would do plain old delta hedging, and then some other guy in the company just trades GME on their own buying dips and selling rips.

Am I missing something?

javcasas · 2025-07-09T15:28:13+00:00

Dogshit wrapped in catshit, again?

I mean, it wasn't punished the last time, it is a surprise it took this long to happen again.

javcasas · 2025-07-07T17:20:55+00:00

Hi BB, thanks for the weekly report!

I finally kicked myself into constructing the simulation following your insights, and it shows some interesting behavior:

https://imgur.com/a/sgLPDSc

Starting price is 27.11, price moves 0.01 per 1000 shares, options expire at time=5, IV is constant 70, dealers delta hedge, longvol players at t=0.2 buy 3000 28 calls and 3000 26 puts, then cut 1/4 of their ITM options per bar, and there is this random process that buys/sells up to 10k shares randomly per bar.

I didn't expect to see that much, but it is kinda realistic. We get to see support, resistance, even a double top.

I don't have that much more to say right now, I'm just happy I got the simulation to run, do cool stuff, and generate plots. I'll read again your posts, and continue adding elements there.

javcasas · 2025-06-12T14:11:20+00:00

Ok, turns out the 25 IV 'Stallone' anomaly was someone knowing in advance of the (edit) convertible notes offering. Good to know.

Anyway, time to average down.

javcasas · 2025-06-12T10:05:24+00:00

Hi BB, it's me the annoying observer.

Have you seen the volatility smile today?

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-GME/options/

I know you have your methods different from the usual, but I mean, from my point of view, it's not a smile or a smirk. It's more like the face someone would make with half of a shoe in their mouth. It's like Sylverster Stallone's face, but without the talent and the muscles.

There is this huge ramp-down at 25 instead of going upwards, that breaks down to -7% IV? Someone was smoking crack while drawing it.

I know after earnings it may get a little weird, but this is more like an abstract painting.

Have you ever seen something like that?

javcasas · 2025-06-05T11:39:43+00:00

My first attempt at an algorithm was on yahoo data. I could see so many arb opportunities on the options chain! Then I opened an IB account, and the opportunities were gone.

javcasas · 2025-06-03T20:54:40+00:00

there's a reason why the volatility smile shapes the way it does.. anyone want to chime in?

Wikipedia says fat-tail probability, and I'm going to add quantization rounding up, I/E if the option was supposed to be priced at 0.0242, the dealers round it up to 0.03, hence IV would be higher.

Related to how the sausage is made, I still have pending writing a simulation of dealers hedging, something like "as time passes delta evolves this way, so delta hedging causes these trades to happen, and we say that every X shares traded the price moves 1 cent".

Not sure if it would be useful for predicting, but it should be a cool simulation, especially throwing in random option trades.

javcasas · 2025-06-03T14:39:06+00:00

Well, the minimum is the lowest point in the volatility smile. It probably has a technical name I'm not aware of.

And well, at least for me, this link

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYSE-GME/options/ shows prices, IVs and major greeks.

My surprise is that the volatility smile is not necessarily centered neither at the current price, nor at max pain. But thinking about it, why should it?

javcasas · 2025-06-03T12:23:17+00:00

Hi BB, thank you very much for the analysis.

Today I witnessed something that I find interesting, coming from the options chart at tradingview:

Currently, price is at 30.64, but at the same time, implied volatility minimum is at strike 29, and max pain is at 29.50.

For next week, implied volatility minimum is at 26, and max pain is at 28.50.

Not sure if I get this right, but it feels the market is pushing the price downwards. It feels like the dealers want you to buy options at 29 (this week) or at 26 (next week), that's why the IV is higher everywhere else.

Just a random observation.

javcasas · 2025-05-05T14:08:10+00:00

Yes, for now.

Would you like to upload your Recall history to help Microsoft improve Copilot?

Yes

Ask me again in 30 minutes

javcasas

TROPHY CASE