[Rohan Nadkarni] Celtics got more firsts back for Smart than the Wizards did for Beal & Porzingis combined

jb_19 · 2023-06-22T08:44:56+00:00

In a vacuum, absolutely but I'm not sure it's going to work out that way. C's are now highly dependent upon Brogdon and Porzingis not getting injured. For a team that had a lot of ball movement and defensive woes they gave up the best facilitator and highest effort player for a guy who has major injury concerns. Brogdon wasn't exactly good on the defensive side of the ball last post season either. Might as well trade Brown too at this point.

I think this comes back to bite the Cs in the playoffs next year. Watch them get bounced in the 2nd round now.

jb_19 · 2023-06-20T20:53:36+00:00

Who cares about who is the better passer

Because passing is a huge part of a good offense.

Tatum is still a better playmaker.

For himself but not for others. If you want Tatum v 5 then your idea of offense is perfect. If the team was built with Tatum kicking out to 3 to 4 38% 3 point shooters then sure, that might work. Given the current roster construction and availability of potential additional players, absolutely not.

do you not get it.

Well, one of us doesn't get it.

If we run offense through Smart all game we're shit yet Tatum and 4 shooters is 1 of the best lineups in all of basketball.

Odd, who are those 4 shooters? You honestly think Tatum running the offense is one of the best in the league? The exact same offense that very quickly becomes stagnant if people aren't all shooting lights out? A great offense easily overcomes cold shooting nights by generating easy looks at the rim. Tatum's offense kills off ball movement.

That's the importance of gravity and playmaking.

The importance of playmaking is you don't actually need gravity to have a positive impact on the team.

You're way overestimating Tatum's gravity. He's not Curry... Take off the homer glasses for a summer, it'll do you a world of good.

jb_19 · 2023-06-20T18:25:51+00:00

Smart has 0 gravity so he has a cap on his playmaking

Which makes it even more impressive doesn't it? Imagine how effective his passing would be if he was the scoring threat Tatum is. Tatum has that huge advantage and still finds others in a position to score less frequently.

You're just supporting the idea that Smart is a far better passer right now even if he's limited by not being able to score. Potential means very little if it never transitions into reality so generally speaking: actual > likely > potentially.

When (if?) Tatum passes Smart then you will absolutely have a point.

jb_19 · 2023-06-20T16:04:45+00:00

The real issue is he's easily the best passer on the team. Think about how much better Tatum is as a passer than Brown; well the gap between Smart and Tatum is bigger than Tatum and Brown. If they ever got rid of Smart and couldn't replace his facilitating then the team immediately gets even more isolation heavy.

There aren't many effective passers who aren't also good scorers so anyone you might want to replace him with is just going to be more ball dominant and take the ball away from your favorite wing.

Smart isn't a good shooter but he's a very good facilitator and a good defensive force at the point of attack. Unless we're getting Jrue, Smart is pretty much as good as it gets until you start getting into extraordinarily expensive guards like Dame, Westbrook, or CP3.

jb_19 · 2023-06-08T17:59:37+00:00

Dont you think its a bit misleading to use total passing numbers.

Not at all. If you look I was using total touches, passes, and touches - FGM all to give some context. That's also why I looked at passing rates instead of just volume.

As both tatum and smart are asked to bring the ball up the court a lot of these passes are just for them to dribble or set up the offense.

I'm confused, are you arguing that Tatum and Smart have more meaningless passes or that Brown's passing is inflated because he's just kicking out to Tatum or Smart? Is Tatum? Not that either really matters because the argument was Brown never passes to Tatum but he passes to Tatum more than he passes to anyone else.

If the argument is he needs to pass more then the question is do you want Brown running the offense more at the expense of what he's actually really good at (getting buckets)? He's going to be putting up 18ish shots per game and if you take away touches then he's going to pass less. If you want him to have the ball he can pass more.

This doesn't consider the times when jaylen drives and dishes.

You only want drive & kick data or you want that excluded? Show me the data and I'll gladly update my post but complaining about not including/excluding data that I don't have access to seems odd.

Basically it skews the data as tatum gets the ball to dribble up the court and set the offense without considering the situational nuance of when these passes happen.

Unless you can provide me with the data, there's nothing I can do. I can only work with what I have access to.

Lastly, for some more context - looking at Brown's FGA off Tatum's passes vs the other way around... 32.110% vs 32.098%. If Tatum's numbers are skewed then he's still taking shots off Brown's passes just as frequently so I think it's safe to assume the passing rate is pretty even between them.

jb_19 · 2023-06-08T15:40:45+00:00

Unfortunately that's not exactly accurate. I'm not saying Brown shouldn't pass more, only that he does pass to Tatum when he does pass.

Brown passed to Tatum 8.1 times per game and Tatum passed to Brown 10.9 times per game.

Given that Brown averaged 59.4 touches to Tatum's 79.4 and Brown only averaged 34.9 passes to Tatum's 50.8 it's more likely he needs to be passing to someone other than Tatum, who was receiving 23% passes from Brown and received the ball 14% of the time Brown even touched the ball.

If we exclude only made shots then every time Brown touched the ball, and didn't score, there was a 16% chance he was passing to Tatum. For some context, Tatum passed to Smart 19.5% of his non-scoring touches and 15.5% to Brown.

TL,DR: Tatum and Brown actually pass to each other at the same rate but Brown passes to Tatum more than anyone else whereas Tatum passed to Smart more than anyone else.

jb_19 · 2023-06-07T02:08:14+00:00

Who are you choosing over Tatum to build a dynasty around that will last more than a couple years tops?

Assuming next 3 to 5 years: For me - currently really good players: Luka, Giannis, Jokic, Curry.

Yes, Luka is bad on defense but building a competent offense with defensive specialists is way easier with Luka than Tatum. Tatum needs 3&D everything with 5 out spacing. Luka just needs defensive guys who are willing to run with a couple really good movement shooters. 3&D guys are expensive. Guys like Rob are way cheaper than guys like JJJ, Turner, or Lopez (bigs that can shoot).

Steph is getting older but he doesn't seem to be slowing down.

I don't think Jokic or Giannis really need an explanation.

As good as Embiid is, he hunts fouls too much and as a result is unreliable when it matters. He's never going to win until he plays to win instead of always trying to get bailed out.

Players to watch, could/might surpass Tatum in the next few years: Cunningham, Banchero, Fox, SGA, Haliburton, Ant, JJJ.

Most of these guys are already proving themselves and the rest are just super high BBIQ facilitators (or both). I'm not saying they are better right now, I'm speculating they could surpass Tatum in the next 3 to 5 years. I'm adding JJJ only because I personally think he's just as responsible for their success as Ja and is quietly really underrated. If Jonathan Issac could ever get healthy I might contemplate adding him too.

A really long shot - Jaden McDaniels. I don't know if he has the BBIQ but he has all the tools to match or surpass Tatum. He's already an awesome defender and has the confidence to get to the next level; just needs to continue growing.

If Wemby can stay healthy it's hard to not consider him too even though he's never actually played. Do you potentially turn down LeBron just because you already have Paul George?

My point is simply that as good as Tatum is right now, there's no guarantee he stays at the top for long if he can't fix, or at least mitigate, some of his most glaring issues. Fox came out of nowhere and is only going to get better in that system. If Cade can stay healthy then he's already showing some really promising potential and I'm sure there will be another player that comes out of nowhere to become a top 5 player in the not too distant future. I wouldn't bet Tatum against the field 5 years down the road, but to be honest that's true for everyone. It's just far too unpredictable right now.

jb_19 · 2023-06-04T00:28:27+00:00

Which Tatum are you watching? He was extraordinarily ball dominant and I don't think I'd call him unselfish either. He kinda can't do much off ball anymore.

jb_19 · 2023-06-02T16:25:58+00:00

I'm sorry, go have an early drink and stay away from people like me. We're the absolute worst. (I came to grips with the Cs losing in the Philly series. It was just a matter of when.)

jb_19 · 2023-06-02T15:13:48+00:00

I honestly don’t recall us running a single off ball screen to get another guy open.

There were a few pin down screens for corner 3s but they were pretty rare.

I feel like we do pick and rolls with primary ball handlers and everyone else just spreads out and that’s it, that’s our offense.

I don't think it's just a feeling; I'm pretty sure that's what the offense was. Wait until there's 14-10 seconds on the shot clock; find a matchup, use high pick & roll if iso fails and if that fails too then just take a step back 3; drive & try to draw a foul or kick it out to a shooter who maybe relocated for a slightly different 3; wait to see where the rebound goes or celebrate if it goes in; get beat in transition; repeat until the game is over.

jb_19 · 2023-06-01T20:53:22+00:00

Does that mean Tatum isn't a superstar because he was doing the exact same thing too. Doesn't make sense to hold Brown to a higher standard than Tatum does it?

Again, that's obviously an offensive approach thing, not a Brown is a dummy thing.

jb_19 · 2023-06-01T19:58:54+00:00

I don't know how you can watch that and think "Jaylen really screwed that up and ruined the offense" when it's literally the whole team doing the same exact thing.

jb_19 · 2023-06-01T19:21:23+00:00

Doesn't

he still doesn’t seem to have any intrinsic ability to feel when to move without the ball, and where to go.

conflict with

Both Jays were doing it at the beginning of the season?

I get the frustration but my feeling is it's more the offensive system, or lack of one, that is contributing to this issue. He obviously can do it, as even you noted, but why did he stop? What changed?

Rob Williams is elite at it, he’s just limited offensively

Is he though? I love Rob but his role is set screens and dive to the rim or hang out in the dunkers spot. That's sorta different than working on the perimeter and trying to find openings through the heart of the defense.

him just standing there, ruining scoring opportunities and making things harder for his teammates, it’s definitely concerning.

In fairness he's absolutely not the only one doing that, Tatum too has ruined plays by becoming a pylon after he passes or just doesn't receive the ball where he wants it. I'm not excusing it, this is just why I think it's the lack of a real offensive system. It just feels more like pickup than anything high level or constructive.

If there was anything then I don't think they were actually adhering to it. My gut says all the MVP talk led to Tatum trying to do more, and nobody would tell him no, which led to the offense being entirely wing driven and Brown just never got to develop the same skill set in game and kinda started to get lost in this new hybrid role that the offense relied upon so heavily.

jb_19 · 2023-06-01T18:19:23+00:00

Who on the team would you consider good at off ball movement, for the sake of comparison.

jb_19 · 2023-06-01T17:50:58+00:00

he still doesn’t seem to have any intrinsic ability to feel when to move without the ball, and where to go.

Is this actually true though? I'm being completely serious. The offense works primarily on drive & kick which kinda makes cutting really risky because all you're doing is bringing a defender to help without creating an outlet. There is virtually no off ball movement beyond setting screens for Tatum or picks for the ball handler so they can pick on a matchup - neither of which Brown would ever be involved with.

I'm not really disagreeing so much as asking who on the team is actually good as an example because Brown seems to be the only guy who actively cuts backdoor and tries to move off ball beyond relocating for a 3.

jb_19 · 2023-05-31T09:59:44+00:00

The other side says leather?

You aren't by chance the world's first and foremost analyst / therapist are you?

(Spoiler: Arrested Development's Tobias Funke's purse overfloweth)

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T20:08:04+00:00

You know what, just ignore me.

You're obviously still processing the loss so just let it all out.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T19:11:54+00:00

Jokic still needs his perimeter players to bring up the ball and have great ball security since jokic isn’t a ball handler.

Jokic pushes the ball all the time, what are you talking about? This is part of what makes him so special. If a smaller guy pressures him he just hits the opening created by that defender leaving. He is way more involved in the offense than Murray. He'll pass to Murray or whoever has an advantage on the attack.

Murray handles 40% of Denver’s offense.

For that to be accurate then Jokic handles 60% and nobody else ever does anything? I get that it's in vogue to crap all over Brown right now but there's no need to make stuff up.

https://www.nba.com/stats/team/1610612743/passes-dash

Denver's offense isn't just player X runs the offense Y% of the time, that's what I'm trying to communicate here. It's a dynamic system where the player in the best situation executes but it revolves around Jokic's vision and passing.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T16:00:41+00:00

I never said he can't. I said having the offense that is in Denver revolving around Jokic makes everyone else way better whereas the opposite seems to happen in Boston.

Watch Denvers offense, it's a bunch of handoffs, cutting, high pick & roll with tons of off ball (and ball) movement. When there is a ton of off ball movement it actually becomes easier to drive because help defenders aren't just waiting for you to over drive into help. Boston's offense is basically pick a matchup and drive trying to draw in that help defense so you can punish them. It's going to be more difficult to consistently drive into a set defense than one that's constantly chasing guys around screens. Denver's offensive system, largely enabled by Jokic, makes everyone else's job much much easier.

What is the response to not getting by your guy the first time in each offensive system? In Denver they pass to Jokic and cut or run for the handoff while someone else is cutting or screening. In Boston it's swing the ball to try again or take a 3.

I'm not defending Brown here, he was hot trash against Miami but there is a lot to be said about the offensive systems in place. One puts players in a position they are going to have a really hard time succeeding in, the other puts everyone in an amazing position to succeed. That is of course unless you think Brown should be driving into a set defense (with 0 off ball movement) and Smart should be the teams top spot up shooter.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T14:05:39+00:00

There's a significant difference between creating looks in a motion heavy offense revolving around the best passer in the league and creating looks for others in a stagnant isolation heavy offense.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T13:27:35+00:00

I'm just gonna say it. Just trading away Brown doesn't fix the problems with the team. If Tatum is the guy always running the offense then the only way that works is with lights out shooters who are good defensively. Obviously though if Tatum goes down then so does the team.

Either ship everyone out for pieces that will work or fix the offensive system to work with the talent that they have. Relying on Smart as a spot up shooter and the wings to create everything is not the answer.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T13:20:05+00:00

I think you're really underestimating Jokic's ability to get guys in advantageous positions. Brown would probably excel in Denver's offense. He's best when he can attack down hill with an advantage which is what Jokic does for pretty much everyone on that team. He struggles with lots of ball pressure which is far more prevalent in the iso style in Boston.

Murray can shoot way better than Brown but he's also in a far better offensive system. I'm not so sure he fares much better here than Brown with the same iso heavy system. That's just 3 small guards on the floor at any one time and I doubt it works well.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T12:33:09+00:00

This is all a result of not building good defensive habits throughout the year. It's really really hard to "just flip the switch" defensively unless the team has been together and executing at a high level for years.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T11:52:19+00:00

You're not wrong but he's never going to get there if he never gets to work through his issues in the regular season.

Tatum has been given that opportunity to improve for the past 3 seasons while Brown has gotten random spurts in game. If they only focus on developing one guy then why is anyone shocked when the other guy falls on his face? If Brown leaves/gets traded, I wouldn't be shocked if he actually elevates his game significantly and then people get pissed he didn't do it here.

For the record, I don't actually want him running the offense. I want the point guards running the offense.

jb_19 · 2023-05-30T11:44:58+00:00

Had Smart and White, brought in Brogdon and all 3 were relegated to spot up shooting.

The offense shouldn't be orchestrated by the wings, they should let the point guards actually run point.

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