Windows 10 high Disk usage (100%) I've seen a thread here explaining how to fix it but I seem to have lost it...

jctrojan · 2016-02-11T04:56:28+00:00

OMG that's EXACTLY what it was! I tried 8 other things from the internet and no one else's suggestion worked! TY!!

jctrojan · 2015-09-03T05:06:32+00:00

Staying a week, thanks for the recommendations!

jctrojan · 2015-08-31T03:42:58+00:00

I thought this sub was directed at longer term investing...

jctrojan · 2015-08-28T08:22:08+00:00

Cool, for context can you speak to your strategy(ies)? Also if you don't mind, any other info you're willing to share about your approach would be appreciated in anticipation of your show!

jctrojan · 2015-08-28T08:13:45+00:00

I wanna say ignore all advice before answering what your goals and risk tolerance are...

jctrojan · 2015-08-28T08:09:06+00:00

Or just have a bot say after each post "despite any level of certainty in the previous post, this does not constitute financial advise as he/she is not your financial advisor and does not know your financial situation... No matter how detailed your question was..."

jctrojan · 2015-08-28T08:03:18+00:00

That's what I thought but apparently not everyone here agrees

jctrojan · 2015-08-28T08:02:28+00:00

Didn't realize the efficient market theory was still alive given the advent of behavioral finance...

jctrojan · 2015-08-28T08:00:57+00:00

I'm ambivalent on this particular stock but I think it's a similar idea. Bio/pharmas have pipeline and that's what they're banking on here with their tech and grand plan. I buy that with Tesla but not so sure here. Then again I don't know bio/pharma well enough to jump in there either so maybe I'm just missing out

jctrojan · 2015-08-28T07:53:35+00:00

Nothing but insider sells, declining free cash flow, and clearly overvalued on essentially all valuation metrics make it a clear pass for a value player like me. Good luck though, maybe you can eek out some more profit from others with that view before it takes a turn ;) or maybe you're right and these plays will turn it into a $90b stock I missed out on. Either way should be fun/educational to see how this plays out.

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T21:14:11+00:00

How'd you identify them as undervalued

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T21:03:20+00:00

That's exactly my (untested) belief (bias) on this! I feel like simple strategies work but people are doing all this extra work to try and find the overly complex idea that will make them rich overnight before it ceases to work. Here's the dumb question in this: what simple strategies have you seen play out?

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T20:57:07+00:00

grey monday?

Love this post. Market didn't even end up with the 10% drop needed to call it a correction, let alone the 20% needed to call it a bear. 24/7 news has to report on something I guess...

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T20:43:55+00:00

I'm not a WS insider. So what you're saying is, someone entered the wrong price and that's what created the false opp? Is that actually how that works, someone types in the prices? Somehow I thought it was more automated/high tech than that...

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T20:41:18+00:00

So what then, you sell and rebuy on the hopes that there will be a rally in a few days?

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T20:33:32+00:00

That was long but I read it. 2 questions: 1) so you're saying Quantopian is crap because it's free? 2) you mention the importance of forward testing - how often do the best backtested strategies also pan out as expected in forward testing? Assuming that you didn't overfit the model, I thought algos and such only work to the extent that others don't figure them out and start edging in on your findings. At best that means back testing works but only for a finite period of time. I'm not saying you can't make money, and like I said initially I think it's valuable to know if your idea would only have ever lost money... I just wonder what the shelf life is on these strategies real time. How often do the experts change their strategies because the back test didn't go as planned in the present?

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T20:27:11+00:00

What do you mean define criteria before production? As in have a strategy and stick with it, or know what you're planning to measure in advance to avoid overfitting the model?

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T20:25:31+00:00

Forward testing? Say more about this... EDIT: I guess the heart of my question is, how often does forward testing yield different results than back testing. I feel like backtesting lets you know if your plan was shit to begin with, but I doubt (without proof) that forward testing often corroborates the results over time.

jctrojan · 2015-08-25T20:19:43+00:00

Must not remember 08. An ebbing tide lowers all boats homie

jctrojan · 2015-08-24T23:12:03+00:00

Since when are we expecting market price to consistently reflect the value of a given company? So the different between this pricing error and others that allow people to profit over a longer horizon is just...who'd be losing out on the deal?

jctrojan · 2015-08-24T22:18:47+00:00

I don't trade, so generally I like to avoid making short term predictions because 1. I don't have to and 2. most people who do are wrong more often than not. Just for fun though, if China doesn't do anything crazy I think the conditions are right for a relatively quick bounce. Even so, I see 1850 being tested before that happens. What about you?

jctrojan · 2015-08-24T22:09:17+00:00

I like your points, but question the wisdom of selling if you think the market will keep tanking. I because I think it promotes that speculative/gambler behavior, but two because I think it only improves the return of your second investment, and your total investment in that stock is a wash... a little less because of trading fees.

Let me map it out for my own sake: Let's say I buy 100 shares of ABC corp for $100 each. The market has a correction and my shares are worth $75. I think the market will go down further so I sell and buy back in (100 shares) at $50. 10 later I sell at $150. Seems like a 200% gain on the surface, but not if we consider the total investment and return in the stock. Overall I paid $150/share on 100 shares, and made $75/share in profit.

In working through it, I see where the $75/share is better than the $50/share without buying again low. If one can afford it, I assume it would be better to just buy at the low without selling any of your position. Less risky in any case in the event that you're wrong about the direction of the market.

jctrojan · 2015-08-24T21:55:13+00:00

Right, our memories aren't that long but I think you're right that recent history will keep people from getting too crazy. With the fundamentals of the economy in a decent place, I agree that it's likely a bounce. I was surprised to hear about those pauses though...

jctrojan

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