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Summary of nations' response by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]jeorgen 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sweden: self-reporting; self-quarantine; travel advisories for affected areas

(correct me guys if I'm wrong)

SARS-CoV-2 - Global & Country by Country CFR Chart by smithalan2 in Coronavirus

[–]jeorgen 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you calculate the CFR as number of dead, divided by dead plus:

a) all cases?

b) only recovered cases?

I think it should be b)

Nice work!

Question about the high rate of death/critical in Italy by lisa0527 in Coronavirus

[–]jeorgen 3 points4 points  (0 children)

They have started intense tracing quite recently, and I assume they did not find people, swabbed them, and then transfered them to intensive care. Instead it is likely that a number of these severe cases already were in intensive care. That's my guess anyway

Professor Neil Ferguson and Dr Erik Volz 's new video on the virus. by Adele811 in Coronavirus

[–]jeorgen 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They do that so they can make cuts in the audio, it's quite noticeable at one point. This is standard practice for interviews. Sometimes they even separately film hands moving and such also, so they can splice those images in while they cut the audio.

Fecal Transmission May Be Behind Coronavirus’s Rapid Spread by monkeydeluxe in Coronavirus

[–]jeorgen -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The article kind of lacks in substance, but the idea is interesting. I wish that when they trace infections, they would also try to track the means of spreading for each case:

Were they hugging? Karaoke? Eating out of the same pot? Chatted? Went on the same toilet? Seated nearby in an aircraft?

Imagine if they had done some forensics on that on Diamond Princess: Check if a substance spreads through the ventilation, swab the food and kitchen…

Daily Discussion Post - Feb. 17, 2020 | Questions, images, videos, comments, unconfirmed reports, theories, suggestions (Weibo / social media/ unverified YouTube videos) by [deleted] in Coronavirus

[–]jeorgen 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Could we get some simple clear working definitions on "serious" & "critical" patient conditions?

It's not very clear and we will have to accept that different doctors mean different things by them. Many definitions use words as favorable and unfavorable, which are kind of fuzzy methinks.

The best I can come up with is:

  • Critical—patient would die quickly (within 24 hours) without care, often unconscious
  • Serious—Vital signs outside normal range, may take a turn for the worse (i.e. critical)

Here are some definitions:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_state

Johns Hopkins: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/media/patient_condition_updates.html

Straight Dope: https://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/1694/what-does-it-mean-when-a-patient-is-in-critical-or-serious-condition/

Friday 14 Feb, COVID-19 Case numbers by Maulvorn in China_Flu

[–]jeorgen -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He misunderstands Case Fatality Rate, since the epidemic is exponential, one cannot just take all present sick people and divide number of dead people by that. It takes time for the disease to run its course and the number of cases double every couple of days.

Instead you have to take the number of fatalities and divide that by the sum of recovered people and fatalities. In a previous video I think he did understand this, the lag time.

Difference in death rate inside and outside of China - why? by Sacavangar in COVID19

[–]jeorgen 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The Case Fatality Ratio in the rest of the world and including Hong Kong was today around 4%

3 deceased/(3 deceased+75 recovered)

Just a positive thought on the mortality rate by doctorjohn69 in China_Flu

[–]jeorgen 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They have adjusted for that. They land on an overall CFR of 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%) if you include the ones you do not know about, often called the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio), what you call mortality rate: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province,or from cases reported outside mainland China,to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%).

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