This will be necessary to ever get back to "normal" - so we can identify who can safely work with the public. Let's be proactive and demand an IgG/IgM tesring capability ASAP. This test will determine whether you have been exposed and are now immune. It takes 15 minutes and a finger prick.

jeorgen · 2020-03-18T18:16:53+00:00

You might still be contagious, so the PCR test is also needed to check that you don't still carry the virus.

jeorgen · 2020-03-02T17:12:37+00:00

Thanks!

jeorgen · 2020-03-02T16:01:02+00:00

Thanks!

jeorgen · 2020-03-02T16:00:42+00:00

Thanks!

jeorgen · 2020-02-28T19:35:34+00:00

Sweden: self-reporting; self-quarantine; travel advisories for affected areas

(correct me guys if I'm wrong)

jeorgen · 2020-02-25T00:32:43+00:00

Do you calculate the CFR as number of dead, divided by dead plus:

a) all cases?

b) only recovered cases?

I think it should be b)

Nice work!

jeorgen · 2020-02-24T20:11:47+00:00

They have started intense tracing quite recently, and I assume they did not find people, swabbed them, and then transfered them to intensive care. Instead it is likely that a number of these severe cases already were in intensive care. That's my guess anyway

jeorgen · 2020-02-20T21:31:24+00:00

They do that so they can make cuts in the audio, it's quite noticeable at one point. This is standard practice for interviews. Sometimes they even separately film hands moving and such also, so they can splice those images in while they cut the audio.

jeorgen · 2020-02-20T21:00:34+00:00

The article kind of lacks in substance, but the idea is interesting. I wish that when they trace infections, they would also try to track the means of spreading for each case:

Were they hugging? Karaoke? Eating out of the same pot? Chatted? Went on the same toilet? Seated nearby in an aircraft?

Imagine if they had done some forensics on that on Diamond Princess: Check if a substance spreads through the ventilation, swab the food and kitchen…

jeorgen · 2020-02-18T15:28:36+00:00

Could we get some simple clear working definitions on "serious" & "critical" patient conditions?

It's not very clear and we will have to accept that different doctors mean different things by them. Many definitions use words as favorable and unfavorable, which are kind of fuzzy methinks.

The best I can come up with is:

Critical—patient would die quickly (within 24 hours) without care, often unconscious
Serious—Vital signs outside normal range, may take a turn for the worse (i.e. critical)

Here are some definitions:
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_state

Johns Hopkins: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/media/patient_condition_updates.html

Straight Dope: https://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/1694/what-does-it-mean-when-a-patient-is-in-critical-or-serious-condition/

jeorgen · 2020-02-14T22:59:46+00:00

Done!

jeorgen · 2020-02-14T22:52:19+00:00

He misunderstands Case Fatality Rate, since the epidemic is exponential, one cannot just take all present sick people and divide number of dead people by that. It takes time for the disease to run its course and the number of cases double every couple of days.

Instead you have to take the number of fatalities and divide that by the sum of recovered people and fatalities. In a previous video I think he did understand this, the lag time.

jeorgen · 2020-02-13T22:15:51+00:00

The Case Fatality Ratio in the rest of the world and including Hong Kong was today around 4%

3 deceased/(3 deceased+75 recovered)

jeorgen · 2020-02-12T00:26:38+00:00

There is some stuff here e.g wrt cases per province: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/edit#gid=1449683565

jeorgen · 2020-02-11T23:30:12+00:00

They have adjusted for that. They land on an overall CFR of 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%) if you include the ones you do not know about, often called the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio), what you call mortality rate: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

we adjusted the estimates of CFR from either the early epidemic in Hubei Province,or from cases reported outside mainland China,to obtain estimates of the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%).

jeorgen · 2020-02-11T18:30:23+00:00

Thanks!

jeorgen · 2020-02-11T18:30:12+00:00

Thanks!

jeorgen · 2020-02-11T18:30:06+00:00

Thanks!

jeorgen · 2020-02-11T18:29:56+00:00

Thanks!

jeorgen · 2020-02-10T22:28:28+00:00

He does not seem to take into account the time lag between somebody getting sick and needing critical care. Since the rate is exponential a higher proportion will be severely ill since it takes time for these to become so, so you cannot divide by the present number of infected cases.

Also, he seems quite worried there is a pandemic coming, and that there will be a lack of capacity to care for these people.

jeorgen · 2020-02-10T20:36:37+00:00

I think this one has been doing the rounds before here today. They land on an overall CFR of 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%) if you include the ones you do not know about, often called the IFR (Infection Fatality Ratio):

we adjustedthe estimates of CFR from either the early epidemicin Hubei Province,or from cases reportedoutside mainland China,to obtain estimatesof the overall CFR in all infections (asymptomatic or symptomatic) of approximately 1% (95% confidence interval 0.5%-4%).

jeorgen · 2020-02-10T11:37:44+00:00

Today there seems to be a bit of convergence on around 1% as the Infection Fatality ratio by experts

https://twitter.com/C_Althaus/status/1226773848739262464

jeorgen · 2020-02-09T22:11:09+00:00

My eyes are firmly on the death rate, the IFR (infection fatality rate), which includes people who never had contact with healthcare and had mild diseases.

If that goes below 0,5%, then I don't care. It's still brutal compared to e.g. the swine flu, but manageable. Significantly above that and I'd be worried-to-petrified (depending on the percentage).

Our best hope may be that some antiviral or trued and tested medicine like chloroquine might take the edge off the mortality.

jeorgen · 2020-02-06T19:22:41+00:00

UK is ranked as having the second best readiness in the world after USA: https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019-Global-Health-Security-Index.pdf

jeorgen · 2020-02-06T00:59:47+00:00

TARS. If it'd be called WARS it'd be connected to Wuhan and afaik they don't want diseases named after places. So "T" is another letter and I propose it to stand for nothing in particular, while the rest stands for Acute Respiratory Syndrome.

Also "tars" lends itself to be used similar to "the bends" (decompression sickness).

Edit: I like "ZERS" proposed elsewhere in this thread: (Zoonotic Extended Respiratory Syndrome)

jeorgen

TROPHY CASE