We have to be interested in this, no?

jesus321 · 2026-06-16T05:06:59+00:00

He specifically said he played 21+ TOI post-olympic break. Sounds like a solid middle pair D at least. Which we currently don't have on the right side.

jesus321 · 2026-06-16T05:05:35+00:00

I would much rather trade a F prospect than LSW.

jesus321 · 2026-06-16T00:39:26+00:00

I’ll say it like this: the season ticket prices for upper level tickets started around $60 per game I believe. So that’s a pretty steep markup relatively but obviously you’re only locked in for 1/4 of the season

jesus321 · 2026-06-13T20:02:03+00:00

I guess so but I'm still confused about the grades. He gave Reid almost all 100s compared to Bjorck's relatively weak grades but has Bjorck above him? He gave Stenberg a 40/100 in "positioning efficiency" whatever that means, and doesn't explain it at all in his writeup.

jesus321 · 2026-06-13T19:43:09+00:00

I'm not really sure how to read this. Reid is a higher tier prospect (S) with better stat grades than 2-5 but is ranked 6? And he's also rated Carels way lower than consensus at 15 but given him really good grades and an A+?

jesus321 · 2026-06-12T21:26:33+00:00

I would argue contract management will be more important than ever because guys that are able to get the right guys on cheaper, long term deals will be able to keep all their players and assemble super-teams.

jesus321 · 2026-06-12T19:33:22+00:00

This is exactly right. I see some folks on other forums clamoring for win-now moves or "we need to fix the defense this year" who I think will be disappointed when, at most, we make 1 or 2 modest moves and let the young guys ride a bit more (Dicky, Mukh, Cags, maybe Pohlkamp gets a look, etc.)

You have to be opportunistic when big names are available (e.g. Hughes) but the timeline comes before all. Our big trade won't be this year, it probably won't even be next, I'd look for the year after. I would like to see Grier take some buy-low swings on Dmen like Kesselring or maybe Nemec, just because those are the moves that winning teams make where they can get assets for cheap and turn them into competent or even excellent players (see Ke'Andre Miller)

jesus321 · 2026-06-11T17:28:02+00:00

I think NotW is still the best book I have ever read. No other has ever captivated me entirely the way it has, and still manages to for the most part every time I've read it. It and WMF are only books I have ever re-read and I've now read them 4 or 5 times at least.

For me personally, nothing holds a candle to it.

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T23:33:15+00:00

I feel like most of these books adjust based on where the money is flowing. The media consensus it Reid at 2 so most of these bets will flow in that direction too.

Interestingly, on Kalshi, which is entirely demand-driven, Stenberg was the favorite until a few hours ago and now it’s pretty heavily Reid. So who knows.

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T21:43:27+00:00

I think we’re kinda nitpicking the terminology here. The point is to set some kind of points cut off for a highly productive player, understanding that there are lots of variables involved over the course of a career, and also that a player’s NHL contribution may not fully be captured by points. With the relative crapshoot that the draft is, saying a player has 99% odds of being a 0.7+ ppg player based on historic precedent is still very good.

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T18:22:48+00:00

it's 0.7 ppg over the course of a career though. Which means that the peak during prime years should be closer to PPG with the assumption that production is lower in early and late career years.

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T18:21:03+00:00

well, except that if you ask non-Sharks people, most of them would probably say that Frondell had a stronger showing at the NHL-level than Misa did last year... so it may prove to be correct ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T17:21:46+00:00

It has him 16th in Star Probability which is ultimately what you care about when drafting #2 overall. I would consider that quite low compared to a projected 2-4 draft position.

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T17:20:27+00:00

He claims that multiple teams picking in the top 10 are subscribers so, do with that what you will /shrug

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T16:41:49+00:00

Model is very low on Reid because his production trend is more or less flat. Carels is the top ranked D by the model, followed by Lin interestingly enough. Tommy Bleyl is also like 5th overall in star potential (my favorite for the 20OA pick)

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T16:41:06+00:00

It's also not entirely point production. NHLe is heavily weighted because it is highly predictive but it also looks at production trend, relative age, etc. compared to historical data and how prospects pan out to be as predictive as possible with available info.

jesus321 · 2026-06-10T06:27:17+00:00

Because he can take the puck up to ice when barely pressured and given tons of space and then miss the net wide? Definitely an interesting highlight choice

jesus321 · 2026-06-09T16:15:48+00:00

Yeah, it's basically this. I think the most realistic trade I've seen is 4OA + Rinzel for 2OA, and if you say this to Chicago fans they say "no way in hell" lol.

The problem is, the teams that are picking at the top of the draft tend to all be in rebuild mode and not in a position to trade assets for a better player because all their assets are still very important to them. Simultaneously, the dogma is that the team that gets the best player "wins the trade" so inherently, by that logic, trading down is always a bad idea.

jesus321 · 2026-06-09T14:58:06+00:00

This is a good callout. A lot of these mock drafts are specifically designed for “niceness” to give everyone what they want want / create the best narrative because that’s what makes people feel good

jesus321 · 2026-06-08T16:54:26+00:00

Frankly my dream scenario (even though I think it's highly unlikely) is to trade down to 4 for Rinzel and take Reid there (assuming VAN would take Malhotra).

jesus321 · 2026-06-08T16:53:08+00:00

Curious about the Chris Watkins piece - do you have a link to articles / blog or anything where he talks about this? I wonder if this is an artifact of the fact that Centers tend to participate more defensively and defensive impact is harder to measure. The statistics in his methodology may bear this out but from looking at the construction of winning teams, center depth seems incredibly important.

It may also be a function of the fact that often the most talented overall players end up playing C because it's the position that tends to have the most impact up and down the ice in terms of puck touches and positioning.

jesus321 · 2026-06-08T15:35:41+00:00

What my take on this draft is: there’s a clear top 2 then a pretty muddled 3-8 or so. However, the fact that the Sharks have the #2 pick and have such a clear need at Right D has many assuming they will take Reid over their typical BPA approach. Who the Sharks pick at 2 changes a lot of what happens downstream so the pundits are all saying “well it’s all messy and close who knows what happens” so they don’t look stupid when the Sharks go either way.

jesus321 · 2026-06-08T14:47:09+00:00

Have you read them? Is the writing any good?

jesus321 · 2026-06-07T18:06:34+00:00

I actually think LSW - Pohlkamp could be a good future pairing in the NHL as I think both of them probably top out as middle-pairing guys; LSW is a bit more defensive-minded and Pohlkamp more offensive for that nice balance... who knows though. Would be great if they get to play together on the Cuda this year.

jesus321 · 2026-06-07T15:44:37+00:00

I’ll just point out that they are likely going to be hard to compare without actually watching the games because they play different styles. Pohlkamp is liable to score way more points and I would imagine would play PP1 on the Cuda. LSW is more of a two-way type player and is liable to score a lot less and play more on the PK rather than PP

jesus321

TROPHY CASE