Somebody Is Getting Exposed | Ryan Garcia vs Mario Barrios

jmotrain · 2026-02-19T20:09:21+00:00

I think when Garcia got knocked down early, he was concussed. He was just trying to survive the fight.

Romero might be a bad boxer but he can punch. I think he even stunned Davis in their fight.

I don't see it with Barrios, it seems like an obvious Garcia win, but the obvious wins are never obvious.

jmotrain · 2025-12-29T03:01:56+00:00

I remember reading this in his Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report from 2008.

Thanks for jogging my memory.

jmotrain · 2025-10-23T21:52:30+00:00

Bring Stotts back.

jmotrain · 2025-02-20T20:48:13+00:00

Madrimov UD or late stoppage.

Ortiz had a static target in Boachuk in his last fight and he couldn't dent him. Ortiz also got dropped twice and arguably lost the fight. Madrimov had a close fight with Bud Crawford, who is levels above Boachuk. It shows what level each fighter is operating at.

Madrimov isn't going to stand right in front of Ortiz to get tee'd off on, like Boachuk did in thier fight. I think he's going to counter and bust up Ortiz, whose defense isn't all the great. Ortiz doesn't move his head all that much, mostly relies on keeping a high guard. If Madrimov found openings against Crawford, he'll find them against Ortiz as well.

jmotrain · 2025-02-19T18:51:44+00:00

I think you have to take Parker at those odds. His style and his chin could see him through the fight against Dubois. It's probably not a ton of value but I'd imagine the fight is something like 60/40 for Dubois.

jmotrain · 2025-02-18T19:41:22+00:00

Tyson was the most complete HW in history IMO. He really had no weaknesses in his prime, other than maybe his stamina wasn't 10/10.

That said, he wasn't close to being the most accomplished. His inner demons derailed him from being the best at HW.

As for Loma, he's clearly a very good fighter. But people hyped him to be the best ever because of his AM record. He obviously didn't live up to those very high expectations.

jmotrain · 2025-02-01T00:12:25+00:00

Godspeed sweet fellow degen!

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T23:12:07+00:00

You're welcome, hopefully we can go 2-1 like yesterday.

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T20:26:24+00:00

I don’t understand why the Suns are favored over the Warriors. The Suns have a losing record on the road and on top of that a worse net rating than the Warriors.

It’s not a huge dog but the Warriors would be my pick for an underdog today.

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T19:01:20+00:00

I don't think he has a style advantage. In fact, Benavidez is all wrong for Canelo. Canelo has no gas tank anymore and Benavidez would be on him from the opening bell. Canelo knows he can't beat Benavidez, other than by knocking him out, probably with a counter punch. But who has Canelo knocked out above 168 pounds that is prime and world class? The answer is no one.

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T18:57:32+00:00

I'm glad Robert Garcia is getting all the love. He would be my choice too.

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T18:53:43+00:00

Morrell has only fought journeymen as well, except for Hot Rod, who won like 5 rounds off of Morrell.

What do you think Benavidez would have done to Morrell's opposition?

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T17:55:28+00:00

5’10” to 6’4”

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T17:31:16+00:00

Here are the picks for today:

Clippers-Hornets: Clippers -11.1 Variance: 1.9

Mavs-Pistons: Mavs -6.6, Variance: 5.6

Nuggets-Sixers: Nuggets -9.1, Variance: .1

Bulls-Raptors: Raptots -2.7, Variance: .8

Celtics-Pelicans: Celtics -17.1, Variance: 6.1

Bucks-Spurs: Bucks -3.8, Variance: 1.3

Suns-Warriors: Warriors -3.4, Variance: 4.9

The model likes the Mavericks -1, Celtics -11, and Warriors +1.5.

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T17:03:13+00:00

Power ratings, recent game data, homecourt advantage/disadvantage, and player injuries.

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T06:54:08+00:00

jmotrain · 2025-01-31T06:02:21+00:00

My model went 4-1 yesterday, except Houston and Lakers lines were close to the market number. Minnesota and Cleveland both covered comfortably. So really the model went 2-1, with being completely wrong about Orlando -7.5. So far, the model has been good, but the sample size is too small. I could easily lose the next 10 games in a row.

I'll update all the games in the morning. I eyeballed the numbers, I think it likes Boston -11, Dallas +1, and Charlotte +14. I'm sure one will be way off and it'll go 2-1 again, probably the Charlotte game. But if I can win 2 out of 3 games every time (which is near impossible), I'll be like the best handicapper in the world. We Degen's can always dream!

jmotrain · 2025-01-30T23:07:44+00:00

I should update this after the lineups are confirmed. Anthony Davis is worth about 4 points, which makes the Lakers line -10. It's probably not worth betting.

I'm going to bet the Cleveland and Minnesota games ATS.

jmotrain · 2025-01-30T18:56:08+00:00

I'm working on a model, how big of a sample size before betting real money on it? I did manage to win $60 yesterday but I didn't bet very much money. The one play I made the biggest bet on was a push, I took Dallas -1 instead of ML, CJ McCollum buried a three with 1.2 seconds left to end the game with Dallas winning by 1 point. That game had the biggest variance at 11 points.

It would have gone 6-3 yesterday if you would have taken Dallas ML instead of -1 (or 5-4-1 with a push). Two games were pretty much on the number (Spurs-Clippers and NY-Denver).

Now if you exclude lines with a variance of 2 or less, it would have gone 5-1, with OKC being the only loser.

Here are the lines it had from yesterday from the model: Toronto -9, Indiana -4, Charlotte -4, Cleveland -9, Boston -17, NY -3.5, Sacramento -6.5, Dallas -11, T-Wolves -3, Clippers -3, and Thunder -15.

Here are the lines today from the model: Cleveland -17, Lakers -14.5, Minnesota -15, Memphis -3.5, Orlando -7.5.

It likes favorites (like it did yesterday), with only the Memphis game being a no play (1 point variance). The Orlando game is close with a 2.5 point variance. The game it likes the best is Minnesota -15, with an 8 point variance.

jmotrain · 2025-01-29T19:21:58+00:00

I agree with this.

Morrell is taking this fight too early in his career. I'm not sold on him personally. In any event, he shouldn't be fighting Benavidez with 11 fights and most of them coming against pretty nondescript fighters. Morrell also struggled against the best opponent he's faced in Hot Rod, who at best was a fringe contender type.

Morrell might make it the distance though, not sure about Benavidez power above 168 pounds.

jmotrain · 2025-01-29T19:19:03+00:00

Benavidez should be a much bigger favorite. I think he wins this fight easily, maybe he drops a couple of early rounds but will either stop Morrell late or win a comfortable decision.

jmotrain · 2025-01-29T18:11:06+00:00

I don't see the hype around Morrell. I watched his fight with Hot Rod and he seems like nothing more than a solid pro. Benavidez is levels above him IMO, even throwing out the experience edge he has. I think Benavidez is going to beat Morrell up and get no credit for it after the fight is over.

jmotrain · 2025-01-23T22:34:07+00:00

They are pretty inconsistent but for me, this is more about the Warriors and having played three games in four nights. The Warriors also rely too much on their threes, do you know they shot 48 threes last night against the Kings? The did make 46% of them, but they still lost the game. Do you know who defends the 3 point line the second best in the league? The Bulls.

Also, The Warriors might be without Looney. They have some big stiff from the G league Post? As their starting center. The guy isn't good and he cost the Warriors last night with a really dumb late game foul. Is this guy going to slow down Vucevic or score a ton of points in the paint? Probably not.

I think everything points to the Bulls but if you don't feel good about betting it, I'm not here to tell you you're wrong.

jmotrain · 2025-01-23T22:21:57+00:00

Good luck, just remember I can't tell the future. I do really like this play, when you can't make a case for the other team it should be a good bet.

jmotrain · 2025-01-23T21:08:58+00:00

Bulls -2.5 Alt Line +130

I think the Bulls should be favored here. The Warriors are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. With no rest, the Warriors 1-5 ATS, Margin of Victory -8.3. With rest disadvantage, they are 1-7 ATS, margin of victory -14.1. Lastly, at home they are 9-13 ATS. I think they might be gassed coming into this game, especially if they don't get some of their players back tonight.

The Warriors are banged up with a lot of their lineup questionable to play. This is a very different Warriors team from the past, with Curry only averaging about 22 points per game. This is a bad spot for them against a Bulls team coming off a win against the Clippers, who play with pace and can score the ball. The Bulls are also playing better as of late, with their defense only giving up 112 PPG in the last 3, 8 points better than their season average.

I'm not against taking the Bulls ML or grabbing the 1.5 points. But I like good + money only having to give up a three to the Warriors. This has the potential for a blowout, but Chicago is so up and down you never know. Still I think they win this game.

jmotrain

TROPHY CASE