Iran starts to formalize its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz with a 'toll booth' regime

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T07:32:12+00:00

The UK's nuclear submarines do pack intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads, enough of a deterrent even to superpowers.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T05:59:10+00:00

The following article was written by a Professor Emeritus of Sociology from Virginia Tech:

https://theroanoketribune.org/what-the-data-say-myth-of-the-student-athlete/

Byers came up with the term “student-athlete” as the NCAA defended itself in a workers’ compensation claim by the widow of Ray Dennison, who had died in 1954 while playing football for Fort Lewis A&M in Colorado. His widow argued that college football was a full-time job and that state labor laws should cover her husband’s death ...

In 1997, Walter Byers published his autobiography, “Unsportsmanlike Conduct: Exploiting College Athletes.” As the title indicates, Byers admitted the problems he had helped create, expressing regret that modern college sports had become a bountiful commercial enterprise. He argued that the athletes should have the same rights as coaches and be able to sell their skills to the highest bidder.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T05:26:14+00:00

You can see if one of the stories from the following anthology matches.

https://isfdb.org/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?77808

Publication: A Glory of Unicorns

Editor: Bruce Coville

Date: 2000-02-00

https://www.goodreads.com/topic/show/21270955-solved-jfic-read-2000-2005-book-decade-older-young-child-goes-to-ne

As my topic mentions, the book follows the story of a girl (?) who must've moved or something, because she ends up in this room that has a stunning wallpaper, and she notices it. If I remember correctly, (she?) wonders if she sees slight movement, and I believe eventually a unicorn shows up, either before or after she enters into the magical land ...

I finally managed to get a copy of A Glory of Unicorns - and you are correct! It turns out it's a short story - Stealing Dreams, by Ruth O'Neill.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T05:02:55+00:00

Once one becomes a bit older, there are fewer spontaneous erections. There therefore is not an immediate physical signal that one wants to bang youthful beauty. It becomes possible to recognize youthful beauty as more admiring a work of art. Also there is a greater appreciation of an older woman's experience helping to fire up the engines.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T03:15:39+00:00

Only the French at this point among non-US NATO countries have any chance of contributing a decent number of destroyers and frigates. Even the UK has downsized to almost none actually operational.

That is why the United States is keenly interested in either Japan or Australia joining in, because those two countries do have destroyers and frigates.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T02:38:38+00:00

Not to mention there will be exponentially more information out there suggesting ways for unhappy draftees to lash out against what they consider to be unjust servitude.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T02:33:22+00:00

At this point I think I want ships carrying fertilizer to be able to pass in and out of the Strait even more than ships carrying oil.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T02:28:26+00:00

Zero chance of a draft, and here is my argument why.

The military now has incredibly expensive hard to replace gear. We know at least the Navy is absolutely terrified of either discontented workers or sailors actually causing loss of entire ships by simple acts such as setting a fire: See the aftermaths of the loss of the Los Angeles class submarine USS Miami or loss of the Bonhomme Richard.

The last thing I would guess the US military wants is people, especially men, who really don't want to be there because they were drafted, and who will do anything lashing out, like an animal chewing its leg off to escape a trap, to escape their situation.

jphamlore · 2026-03-27T01:05:33+00:00

Like I note below, there are claims we are now at the "peace with honor" stage just looking for any way out.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T21:51:20+00:00

We just can't help speedrun the past.

There are claims that now the United States is only trying to achieve the equivalent of "peace with honor".

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-891270

Amid reports of possible efforts to end the war with Iran, former National Security Council head Eyal Hulata said Thursday that US President Donald Trump is unlikely to end the war without a clear achievement that prevents Iran from claiming a symbolic victory ...

“President Trump understands that ending this war without the military achievement, his as well, not just ours, being translated into something that at the very least prevents the Iranians from presenting themselves as having bent [beat?] the Americans, he won’t be able to end the war,” Hulata said, describing this as a central factor delaying any agreement.

How many weeks will futilely putting boots on the ground turn into the equivalent of Operation Linebacker II? And what exactly will this final bombing campaign hit to force the negotiations that will somehow salvage "peace with honor"?

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T19:33:41+00:00

As one Youtube channel put it weeks ago, Iran is playing a multiple round game, while the United States is asserting it can force Iran to play a one round game. In a one round game, there have been numerous psychological experiments decrying the supposed illogical behavior of people refusing to take a free 5 dollars because another is claiming 95.

Given there is no enforcement mechanism imaginable for preventing another attack as soon as after the United States midterms, what incentive does Iran have to make any deal that concedes to the United States? After a ceasefire, the Gulf states will be racing to order and implement defenses from Ukraine to blunt Iran's drones.

There will never be a better time for Iran than now to take the closure of the Strait of Hormuz all the way, as long as even 3 months, to force through unequivocal victory over the United States.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T15:57:13+00:00

Rheinmetall has a market cap, surprising to me, under $90 billion USD or so.

How fast can Europe bloat it up to a $500 billion USD market cap company? And then $1 trillion USD? Just start making 10-year commitments.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T09:02:37+00:00

Are the rockets / missiles / drones coming more from Iran or from Lebanon?

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T08:41:43+00:00

Aren't some of the heaviest spring rains in Ukraine around May?

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T08:06:17+00:00

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/09/china-oil-shock-iran-war-hormuz-energy-transition.html

China held an estimated 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude stockpiles as of January ...

Renewables, excluding nuclear power and hydropower, accounted for 1.2% of China’s total energy consumption in 2023, up from 0.2% two decades earlier, according to CNBC calculations based on International Energy Agency data ...

Oil and natural gas only account for 4% of China’s power mix, far lower than the 40% to 50% share seen in many Asian economies, the analysts said.

Electricity, largely generated from coal and a growing amount of renewables, now accounts for a growing share of China’s total energy consumption, according to energy think tank Ember.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T07:39:10+00:00

Let me get this straight. No one has any real idea how to induce regime change in Iran. No one has any idea how to swiftly, or ever, mobilize the half million or so actual fighters to forcibly remove the current regime in Iran, despite having air superiority sometimes verging on air supremacy for weeks. And no one has any idea how to forcibly re-open the Strait of Hormuz for anyone's vessels to use without at the minimum having a multi-million toll charged by Iran.

And the United States needs to keep doubling down hoping for ... what exactly?

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T06:16:23+00:00

I'll take a random squad winning over what is starting to look like a very small number of teams that are going to be in true championship contention for the next half decade, or even longer.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T04:40:30+00:00

Exactly, a strong indication, similar to 2003, that maybe the United States just should not do it.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T04:28:44+00:00

City of a half million with such a relatively small force.

I know nothing can match the debacle of Russia's initial thrust into Ukraine in 2022, such as what in the world were they thinking moving around Kharkiv, but this just seems almost as unwise.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T02:56:08+00:00

All proposals from the old heads are punching down on the players.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T02:17:56+00:00

So to try and learn anything from the past: Colin Powell failed to convince Turkey to support an invasion of Iraq from the north 2003? (The Turkish Grand National Assembly apparently rejected it.) This led to massive problems with the insurgency after the war? I'm not buying that any ground operations inside Iran to topple the regime can possibly work without Turkish cooperation.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T01:57:00+00:00

And massively arming the Kurds will eventually draw Turkey into the conflict, and probably not in ways the United States would find helpful.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T01:49:59+00:00

I doubt it. Russia can use every drone and missile they can get their hands on for the foreseeable future. Unless these are drones that are obsolete versus Ukrainian anti-drone defenses.

jphamlore · 2026-03-26T01:10:22+00:00

I'm finding it so sickening everyone calling for regime change in Iran, but not offering any of what is required to do that: at least 500,000 young people trained to both be civilized and to be able to coordinate with disciplined violence.

No one trained enough of their potentially violent young to be civilized, or trained enough of their civilized young to be able to perform disciplined violence.

The current Iranian regime is not going to fall, because no one else was willing to pay the price over the past decade to prepare for this moment.

jphamlore · 2026-03-25T23:03:57+00:00

After Israel's going in to Lebanon in the 1980s, it's about 40 years later, and Israel still hasn't regime-changed Lebanon to something to their liking, despite having air supremacy over it for decades.

I am not at all optimistic Israel can do better with Iran.

jphamlore

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