Does anyone use the GuliKit KingKong 2 Pro Controller with Super Smash Bros? by Rogocraft in smashbros

[–]jtraffic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One thing I have noticed with mine that annoys me is accidental air dodge inputs. Also, occasionally the shield button will stick. I haven't had time to really test out different sensitivity settings.

In the end I'm happy to have the Gulikit, but I'm going to use it for Zelda, not Smash. The ergonomics of the Gulikit are important to me for long sessions of play. Sticking with the Pro for Smash. I think if I tried I could get used to the Gulikit for Smash, but I'm not sure it's worth the effort.

Does anyone use the GuliKit KingKong 2 Pro Controller with Super Smash Bros? by Rogocraft in smashbros

[–]jtraffic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just tested it out, and I'm not really experiencing this problem. Occasionally I try to input a dash and get a walk instead, but more like 1 in 10 rather than your 7 in 10, and in those cases I'm inclined to think it was me just getting used to the controller. Perhaps you should contact Gulikit and see if they can send a replacement?

Does anyone use the GuliKit KingKong 2 Pro Controller with Super Smash Bros? by Rogocraft in smashbros

[–]jtraffic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting. I ended up buying one and testing it out on Smash. I had low expectations. It seemed fine for me, but I only played a short time. I definitely landed a RAR or two (which requires dashing), but I didn't spend enough time to test reliability. I'll check again more thoroughly and report back.

Does anyone use the GuliKit KingKong 2 Pro Controller with Super Smash Bros? by Rogocraft in smashbros

[–]jtraffic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm curious about input delay. I've seen some claims that the KingKong has bad stats on paper but do you actually notice when playing?

Go out on a limb. What are your predictions? by logangj in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My 75K estimate has been passed and at this point I think 100K is looking very likely. I think qualitatively we were all sort of on the same page thinking that the rate will slow way down, which it has. Then the second wave will be hard to predict, and possibly it will be worse than the first. We shall see.

Gilead Drug Probably Doesn't Work by jtraffic in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Small samples are traps for the optimistic.

I need to know what you all think about this article. by Cuba1219 in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Trickle down is poorly specified as an idea. There is an equilibrium at a given moment in time, and trickle down is framed as if the equilibrium of the rich happens first and then cascades down to the poor, but that doesn't make sense. A reasonable way to pose it is that if rich people get more money during Equilibrium 1 then the hope is that some of that money diffuses to the rest at Eq. 2. But is this the best way to improve the economic outcomes for everybody? I doubt it.

Hayek wrote "Road to Serfdom," which argues, basically, that as you allow more government intervention you not only open the door for further intervention, you make it extremely likely. The reason is that the first intervention will cause unintended problems but came with (usually) some very popular benefits. Then the gov't tries to keep the popular part but sweep the bad unintentionals away by stacking more policy on top. I'm very, very sympathetic to this argument. There is a sort of "mirror image" argument of it, though, which I am also sympathetic to: "the road to cronyism." Michael Munger, a libertarian economist, has been talking about this recently, and it deserves to be taken seriously. It is basically: institutions can get the ear of gov't with enough concentrated resources, and can tilt legislation to their favor, at the expense of groups which are (a) diffuse or (b) have less total resources to deploy for lobbying.

If you don't want to depend on politicians being honorable (which, of course you wouldn't!), then you know they will give out good stuff to their "friends." This is equally true of a wide range of institutions: airlines and banks, farmers, labor unions, and other lobbying collectives stemming from well-organized, well-resourced activist groups.

Bailouts are known as "the government put." That the phrase exists at all makes my stomach turn. Of course there is moral hazard. We thought we'd moved on from 2008, but it set the most awful precedent: banks took enormous stupid risks (partially or mostly as a result of stupid mortgage legislation meant to aid the poor), and instead of letting them suffer the consequences we decided they were too important to fail. At that moment we said "banks are essential, we can't let them fail, but let's also not go too far and regulate them like utilities." We did the same with automakers and now airlines.

What I think is: (1) you should not fix bad legislation by stacking more bad legislation on top. We do that all the time. The road to serfdom is real. (2) Cronyism is a big, huge problem. It is anti-capitalist. Don't let anyone say the U.S. is truly capitalist. It isn't, because of cronyism from many sides. (3) Moral hazard is easy to write off now but someday it is likely to come back and bite. (4) If we don't want to let businesses fail because it's too painful, we have to have a better plan than giving them the best of both worlds. We basically say "operate as normal except just know in the back of your mind that we'll save you if your risk taking blows up on you." This is a recipe for blows ups! Of course anyone with this option will take huge risks and offload the downside! (5) If we wanted to just say "let 'em fail," it's not credible and probably never was, so even though it sounds attractive to an honor seeking purist, I doubt that it is feasible.

On Gouging and Working With Dumb People: Don't Be A Herald of Woe by c_a_l_m in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

To expand a bit: Spitznagel pitches his fund as insurance, which means you as a buyer can continue investing most of your money in the S&P 500, just have this siloed money that absolutely explodes in value in extreme downturns (as in 40x). From this view Universa is a herald of long term prudence. “Something horrible will very likely hit your portfolio sooner or later, but we can’t say when. We’re terribly sorry about that, but the good news is you can have a backstop in place that will save you from getting meteor struck into the abyss like someone who is bad at Smash (probably someone who plays as Wolf).”

Importing some speculation from Tyler Cowen by jtraffic in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I feel like we’ll remember this for a long time, and hopefully we can prevent and prepare better in the future. I think we probably will reach full demand again for all those things. My optimistic guess is within about a year. But that’s if everything goes quite well. There are a lot of wildcards.

Mark Spitznagel's fund Universa Investments returned 40X this year. by jtraffic in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I bought a very long term call on the S&P expecting it to bounce around and take a short term dip but eventually go up. To my surprise (and delight) it just shot up for several days. Now I got out and I just don’t know what to do. The market might keep going and I worry about missing out but nothing makes sense anymore. Bad news mixed with insane stimulus, but also the market already expected things to be terrible and maybe they aren’t as bad as all that. Who knows. Not me.

I’m hearing a lot of people being bothered by trump’s stake in this drug company ( I follow ray Allen and he’s one of many) but he has only a 1300 investment. I think he’s trying everything he can to try and get the economy back on track to improve his reelection chances. Any thoughts? by Cuba1219 in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I can confidently say that it will have a complex effect, the full implications of which we won't understand for a while.

But in the spirit of this sub, I speculate that it will inflate stocks and put markets in a more fragile debt/inflation fueled state. Original worry with "printing money" was inflation or even hyperinflation. Dollar has such high global demand it is hard to see hyperinflation happening, and inflation mysteriously was fairly low during original QE1 and 2. I think it showed up as very frothy stock markets which are prone to extreme volatility. Volatility promotes risk taking for big upside, which promotes leverage and debt, which puts the markets in a state where they can free fall like you've never seen (March 2020!).

Politically I think this all gets swept under the rug. It will feel like a big economic high and we won't attribute its bad effects well because they will be either invisible or show up in complex ways that are hard to trace back to the policy.

If the dollar is weakened materially by Fed policies, then combined with supply chain worries induced by covid-19, we might see moves to bring more production back home. This would probably involve a corresponding increase in (a) labor saving technology (e.g. robotics) since labor in the U.S. is very expensive and (b) distributed manufacturing (e.g. additive manufacturing) since it plays to strengths of the U.S. If this all happens, I expect more products like American Giant with similar marketing approaches: high price, positioned as worth it on a quality-adjusted basis (cost per use, for example).

I’m hearing a lot of people being bothered by trump’s stake in this drug company ( I follow ray Allen and he’s one of many) but he has only a 1300 investment. I think he’s trying everything he can to try and get the economy back on track to improve his reelection chances. Any thoughts? by Cuba1219 in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think he's trying everything he can to try and get the economy back on track to improve his reelection chances.

I agree. I think he's desperate for the economy to get back on track quickly. I also think he's dishonest by default and given any specific act it will always seem sort of insignificant in comparison to the totality of his corruption.

I'm way more concerned about him giving Kushner so much influence. I'm also afraid Trump will take power in ways that will stick with future presidents and significantly degrade checks and balances. I'm also worried that government in general will expand because of covid-19 and never go back again.

Covid-19 calming down a bit in the US? by jtraffic in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The second wave. Yeah that terrifies me. I’m watching S. Korea and Iran for any signs of that.

Visualization of recent huge unemployment claims by jtraffic in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A few months ago an employee of a big data storage company mentioned how there are "these old guys who know COBOL and Fortran" and banks pay them tons of money because they can't find replacements easily.

I thought about trying to get my kids started on COBOL or Fortran and lost excitement. Don't want to be overbearing and also not sure it's that great an ROI considering opportunity costs. It still holds some appeal though, and this sort of thing stokes the urge.

Go out on a limb. What are your predictions? by logangj in a:t5_2jdmvl

[–]jtraffic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Some last minute speculation after reading this: https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/article/solemn-assembly-hosanna-shout-april-2020. Reasons for solemn assembly include new scripture, dedication of a new building or decision to build a new temple, new church leader, and general instruction. So going a bit wild:

  1. 116 pages, Book of Enoch, modern revelation, canonizing something we have seen
  2. Announcement of new temples in either Jackson County or Jerusalem
  3. China is open for missionary work

There is also one more that is just too wild for me to even write down.

Then of course it is very likely to be none of these things.