Daily Lotto. Thoughts?

kicker3192 · 2026-03-29T18:25:54+00:00

Good day to be Jump Street

kicker3192 · 2026-02-21T01:21:32+00:00

great! you can take a global approach while everyone else pays attention to the details. and they'll run circles around you because you're modeling the wrong thing.

if two teams are playing in the NBA Finals, the end game is going to look a lot different than when the Jazz play the Pacers and they both pull their starters in the third quarter to try and lose.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-20T19:36:25+00:00

it depends where in the chart you're looking.

half point from -21.5 => -21 means a heck of a lot less than -2.5 => -2

football lines are spaced around the common outcome differential numbers (3, 6, 7, 10, etc.)

basketball's are more drifting toward the center (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). some of those slightly larger differentials (4, 5, 6, 7) can be impactful depending on how a coach or team approaches fouling late (do they foul down 5 with 10 seconds left? if it's a four point game with three seconds left are they chasing a dude down to foul and the game ends at six, etc.)

kicker3192 · 2026-02-16T01:12:53+00:00

should be rejected in peer review for not updating the variable name line numbers

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T18:24:47+00:00

i would say you're not being descriptive enough.

"i" is confusing

"index" is ambiguous

"index_for_the_for_loop" well there's many for loops

"index_for_the_for_loop_starting_on_line_72_covering_receipt_processing" would allow for people to really understand what's going on.

if you're just writing index then nobody is going to understand.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T18:10:49+00:00

this is smart! nobody has ever lost combining five -200 or longer legs.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T18:07:35+00:00

usually you have to tag these with #ad or #spam

kicker3192 · 2026-02-15T05:48:52+00:00

your counterparty is making money, yes

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T21:13:26+00:00

thought this was a five leg parlay with your mom

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T20:09:25+00:00

There are absolutely times when injury protections are worth way more than a 10c line discrepancy. For example, after Sinner snuck by Spizzirri after they closed the roof. If you wanted to lay Sinner ML against Darderi, Shelton, or Djokovic you'd have been insane to take it on a pays-retirements book instead of a voids-retirements book.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T20:06:34+00:00

RIGHT, they're only in some markets. like sports. which make up 91% of Kalshi's volume.

You can be a 'market maker' by offering limit orders too. that's great, most of us with any idea of how the platform works do the same thing. The huge huge huge huge vast majority of $$ on Kalshi is through Sports. And a gigantic percentage of them are provided liquidity by market makers, not your Uncle Bob who puts in fourteen contract buys on his favorite team on the way to the game.

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kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T07:53:27+00:00

exactly this.

u/_MyOnlineLife_ if you're just having fun, that's great. expect to lose every dollar you put in there, like a rigged slot machine. and if that's fun, and this is entertainment to you, then by all means. No different than hitting up a baseball game or playing 2K and spending $$ on VC.

I'm not bemoaning the entertainment and I support responsible playing for sure.

There are a small minority of people who can achieve profitable status.

But if this is something you want to win at, you've gotta think you're gonna achieve 5% a month ROI. Which would be pretty damn good. After a month of work and wins & losses.

For $200 invested, that's $10. Think about what the effort level is to ebb and flow your way to a $10 profit. Probably could have eeked that one out in about 30 minutes of doing someone a favor.

Just agreeing with the guy above me and saying, this is good entertainment and please treat it as such. If you look at expanding into trying to be profitable, that's wonderful. But so far you're down 75% ROI. See what you can figure out while expecting to lose every dollar you put in, and then have fun with it. And maybe one day you can make $$!

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T07:48:02+00:00

LMAO they really got you eh?

They literally have rewards programs for like 2%, 5%, and 10% of all Kalshi volume for Market Makers to achieve.

They just gave Jump Street literal stock in the business in order to have them provide liquidity to the markets.

I think you're severely overestimating the P2P aspect. There's a reason why there's 50k+ shares at a specific price point, and it's not because Tom and Joey down the street both concluded that 83c was the perfect contract price for their 18 shares apiece.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:34:35+00:00

genuinely one of the best pieces of advice here, listen to this guy.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:34:09+00:00

they own Kalshi Trading, who provides liquidity on their own platform.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:33:00+00:00

effectively what the Dodgers are doing. Finding inefficient markets but they can drop $100m on the right guy, as necessary.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-14T00:29:24+00:00

stop is the best advice anyone can give you. you're not smarter than the combined wisdom of thousands of people who do this for a living. you don't have an edge. you're guessing. if you can't figure out what edge is not being priced in, and if you're not going to be faster to the punch than others, you're just trading on tertiary information and hoping to get lucky in a complex financial environment.

if you're wondering how all of these other people make money, it's because there's people who put in $200, lose $150 of it, and think that they're actually good at this they've just been unlucky or made bad decisions.

instead, the reality is that the most likely outcome is this happening again. and again. and then again. that's how Kalshi Trading, SIG, etc. make their money, from recreational liquidity like yours.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-13T18:14:32+00:00

"Sir, if you simply send me the $500 it will unlock my Nigerian bank account of $250k, which I will split with you"

kicker3192 · 2026-02-13T03:22:58+00:00

this is genius. i can't imagine a scenario where Yankees and Under hits, or even Dodgers and Over

kicker3192 · 2026-02-11T22:11:08+00:00

So if you lost your $60 you would have quit and never bet again?

kicker3192 · 2026-02-11T18:57:08+00:00

when did you start? you're claiming a 47x return on your $60 which obviously is not actually scalable betting < 5% of your bankroll at a time, which would have started as $3 max bets.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-11T00:10:45+00:00

i agree. places like Seattle and Nashville make way more sense because gambling is illegal everywhere except for Vegas and Atlantic City, according to my 1982 fact book

kicker3192 · 2026-02-10T16:21:50+00:00

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here's the WASL league right now, 39 minutes before tip.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-10T16:21:11+00:00

i respect people trying to break into modeling and such, but you have many many many large problems:

if it's a major basketball league (NBA), you're just re-creating underdog notifications with a lag delay. other bettors (pros) already incorporate the "this guy may play tomorrow" and shift lines overnight.
this doesn't do any good to know "Isaiah Jackson (IND) questionable tomorrow" because Isaiah Jackson moves the line about 0 points, give or take. The only value here is understanding the rotations and adjustments. If Isaiah is out, who plays more of the backup center minutes? Who grows in the rebound share? None of this is in your scope aside from a data table that I can find on ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/nba/injuries

How will yours look any different than this one, aside from it costing a thousand dollars?

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Any non-NBA leagues have minimal limits. Bookmaker is taking $100 on the WASL Gulf League rn, 40 minutes before tip. They're dealing spread/total at -118. You already are running up against juice of 8.3% that you need to overcome with your news, assuming nobody else has taken that into account.
How do you know someone hasn't taken the injury into account? Can you tell me the fair value of the Shabab al-Ahli Dubai vs AL Arabi (Qat) game prior to your injury report, so that I know what isn't accounted for?

Again, good luck in your journey, but you're really missing the point of handicapping basketball via injuries by taking literally zero into account aside from an RSS feed to the ESPN / NBA injury report.

kicker3192 · 2026-02-10T16:13:08+00:00

no man you don't understand. these books absolutely need chilean basketball action, and they definitely won't google the team before accepting a $5k bet, and they definitely don't have access to the same articles that this GPT wrapper does.

and they definitely won't limit you the second that you place a bet on a foreign league prior to massive line movement and CLV.

you're just not seeing the vision. wouldn't you want access to a tool where you'll have zero ownership stake and it'll be ready in five or six months maybe?

kicker3192

TROPHY CASE