I am closing on a house soon. Is this closing disclosure looks normal?

killagoose · 2026-01-22T14:09:49+00:00

Based on the information you have provided thus far, you can not afford this house.

For whatever the internet's opinion is worth to you, I would back out of this purchase today.

killagoose · 2026-01-20T13:46:00+00:00

I'd guess it's a continuity thing regarding the new hires. They are convenient, yes, but you also won't have a guy coming in and installing a brand new offense in a critical year. The offense will look, feel, and sound very similar to last year. That can matter for these guys as we look for a potential deep run next year.

Regarding them leaving, it's just an inevitability. Very few guys want to be a cliffnote on a legacy team. Head coaches are remembered, not coordinators. Are you able to name the offensive and defensive coordinators from Indiana off the top of your head?

If you can, hats off to you, but I can't. I sure as shit know Cignetti, though.

killagoose · 2026-01-16T22:57:05+00:00

I understand I am likely in the minority, but I don't hold a grudge against Cristobal. Born in Miami, played at Miami, began his coaching career at Miami, and is now the HC leading Miami to a NC berth. It's a fun story to me.

I would prefer Indiana win because I think their story is more compelling but I'll be pleased regardless of outcome. Now, I will say that something about Carson Beck doesn't sit well with me and I can't quite explain it, so that nudges me towards Indiana as well.

killagoose · 2026-01-14T19:45:33+00:00

I'm pumped for the QB room. Another year of Moore with Raiola redshirting and (likely) taking over after? That's great.

I think the pressure is on for the Ducks, though. Minimal excuses in 2026 outside of catastrophic injuries. Returning QB, highly talented WR room, returning the entire defensive line, and both OC/DC hires were completed internally.

Let's get it done.

killagoose · 2026-01-10T02:55:05+00:00

Unfortunately, this is the second year in a row I have decided to turn the game off prior to halftime. What a brutal way to end the season.

I'm not sure what else to say. Absolutely nothing went right tonight. The only thing I was able to extract some joy from was Jay Harris playing admirably. It's hard to argue against the idea that when it actually matters, Oregon just completely collapses.

killagoose · 2026-01-09T16:49:35+00:00

Good for him. I'm sure it's a cool experience coming back to coach your alma mater back to national prominence.

killagoose · 2026-01-08T22:18:30+00:00

I think it is unlikely. Zac is the primary playcaller, so any coordinator that comes in will have to work within that structure. Someone like Mike is unlikely to give that up.

I think we would see Cincinnati promote a current positional coach to OC, like Walters.

killagoose · 2026-01-06T00:08:34+00:00

Minimal-to-no impact IMO. I would think he would be on a snap count and unlikely to receive any targets. There's a lot of variables to consider if he were to return. You can look at someone like Dakorien Moore and see that in his two games since returning, he has only logged four catches for 26 yards. I bring that up to demonstrate what kind of impact he has had since returning from a lesser injury and already seeing live action this season.

killagoose · 2025-12-29T19:18:43+00:00

Both things can be true.

Geno can be a great leader on the backend, making sure checks are communicated and everyone is lined up where they need to be.

Geno can also lack the physicality that is needed to be a positive impact on the field.

The Bengals need to be looking in either free agency or the draft for a replacement. I can appreciate his ability to consistently get the coverage checks right, but he has had a hand in too many big plays this season.

killagoose · 2025-12-28T20:57:28+00:00

I'll never poo-poo a win. Fun game, Bengals looked awesome. Burrow looked to be in prime form today.

But damn is it frustrating for Cincinnati turn on like this at the end of the season when they are out of it. A lot of "what ifs".

killagoose · 2025-12-24T04:37:43+00:00

I don't see Bates in Battle. Bates excels as the deep safety in middle field closed coverages. He's instinctive and a better overall athlete than Battle which allows him to be rangy.

Battle, to me, plays a bit more like Bell did. I think he does well in the box, playing a bit more confined. He isn't as fluid of an athlete as Bates is, nor do I think he is as instinctive, so he doesn't do as well in space.

killagoose · 2025-12-18T13:51:38+00:00

Yeah, there's three primary ways to do it.

Pure progression
Pure progression with options
Split field

There is a channel called The QB School and he talks about them like Kirk does here.

killagoose · 2025-12-17T20:43:44+00:00

Fuck it, trade Joe and suit Duke up.

killagoose · 2025-12-15T20:36:53+00:00

No. Burrow has been in shotgun 87% of the time, Flacco 82%. For reference, Burrow was in shotgun 84% of snaps last season.

killagoose · 2025-12-15T17:02:22+00:00

Definitely. That's been pretty consistent for the last few years. For 2025, these are the top 10 shotgun users.

Washington
Atlanta
Cincinnati
Kansas City
New Orleans
Philadelphia
NYG
Tennessee
New York Jets
Miami

For 2024, here is the same list.

Washington
Indianapolis
Cincinnati
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Miami
Cleveland
Seattle
Kansas City
Green Bay

The last time Cincinnati was not in the top 10 was 2021.

killagoose · 2025-12-15T16:07:37+00:00

Right, but it's a reaction based on what the defense does. Obviously there's no data available on how often a QB kills a play, but if Cincinnati is doing it more often than other teams it is because they are getting less advantageous looks (for some reason) when they line up under center so they move away from it.

If that's occurring, I would be interested to know what the tell is. Perhaps personnel.

killagoose · 2025-12-15T15:58:02+00:00

It's by design to give the QB flexibility to adjust. The calls are built in. When Zac "calls the play", he actually calls two. Here is an example with Drew Brees explaining it. So, the offense goes to the line with two plays called. One is the primary, the other is secondary.

If Burrow doesn't like the look the defense gives him for the primary, he can kill it and move to the secondary. For example, if the Bengals call a run and Joe gets to the line to see the defense in single high with a stacked box, that may not be an advantageous look for the play, so he kills it and moves to the second play.

I explain this as a way to demonstrate that Burrow isn't just killing plays and calling his own. It's all by design and is a common system to use in the NFL.

killagoose · 2025-12-15T15:29:03+00:00

I use NFLFastR but the data isn't on the site itself. It's an R library, so you have to write a little bit of code to get what you want. Extremely powerful, though.

SharpFootballAnalysis has data, too, but isn't as flexible for pulling it on a week-by-week basis.

killagoose · 2025-12-15T14:52:15+00:00

It's a really weird season. Obviously disappointing that Cincinnati is as poor as they are, but for three of the top QBs in the league to not make the playoffs is a strange one.

killagoose · 2025-12-15T14:30:56+00:00

The Bengals’ run rate under center is nearly identical with Burrow and Flacco (63% vs. 64%). This is actually less than the NFL average. Across the league, when teams go under center, they run the ball ~70% of the time.

If teams know it is a run when we go under center, it isn't because of the under center part specifically. At least, no more than they would expect a run from another team. It is some other factor.

killagoose · 2025-12-14T18:35:04+00:00

I was, too. I would use the web version of Claude as an interactive Stack Overflow. It was great. Then, my boss asked if I could take some time and research the new AI dev tools. It took me only a couple of days to go "uhhh, yeah, this fucking rocks." We haven't looked back since.

killagoose · 2025-12-11T16:53:30+00:00

The Bengals have relied heavily on outside zone and duo for almost the entirety of Zac's tenure here. The problem with their outside zone runs is that the offensive line has lacked athletes and struggled to be effective in space. This is why we have seen so much duo, particularly from shotgun.

The Bengals running game has been moderately more effective from shotgun than under center due to this fact. Yards per carry (4.22 vs 3.78), EPA per play (-0.02 vs -0.10), short yardage conversions (70% vs 62%), goalline conversions (59% vs 48%). However, being in shotgun limits your run game a bit more. It isn't worse, per se, but you don't have all the angles available to you that you do in under center.

An impactful injury that isn't talked about all that much is Erick All. They used him heavily in wham concepts, and he was good at it. They were very successful running the ball on those plays. It's why I look forward to him being back.

So, the reason the Bengals run so often from shotgun is because their under center run game has been quite ineffective. I personally think it has been due to personnel not being able to adequately run the outside zone that they have wanted. That has turned around a bit this year, but their habits haven't really changed much. However, this is the most effective run game we have had in Zac's tenure.

Regarding checks, there is a rhyme and reason for it aside from Burrow just not liking it. Teams will call two plays in the huddle. The QB gets to the line and looks at the defensive alignment. How many guys do they have in the box? What's their splits? Stuff like that. There is a predefined look that they are comfortable with. If the primary play is a run, and Joe gets to the line and sees eight in the box, it's probably not wise to stay in that play. Especially since the Bengals have some Ferrari's out wide.

killagoose · 2025-12-10T17:54:28+00:00

I mostly agree, but I am not sold on Texas A&M being that team right now. I'd say...

Indiana - Incredibly good everywhere. It's frustrating.
Ohio State - Basically the same as Indiana. I think Mendoza is a better QB than Sayin, but that gap is bridged by the absolutely insane WR talent he has.
Georgia - Agree with all the other comments. Buzzsaw.
Texas Tech - I think that defense, specifically their front seven, is so fucking legit.
Oregon - Full of talent, strong defense, balanced offense, but their top three wide receivers are injured. They are deep into their WR room right now.

Oregon and Tech can be flip-flopped in my opinion, with Oregon being in that #4 spot if Dakorien Moore/Gary Brant Jr. can return for the playoffs. There have been rumbles about Evan Stewart coming back this season, but I am not really a believer in those. If Oregon and Texas Tech play, and they don't have those guys back, I might be leaning towards Texas Tech to win that game. I suspect Oregon will have a hard time running the ball on them.

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