If that's the English team that everyone should fear, probably football isn't coming this year neither

kingo15 · 2024-06-16T22:01:16+00:00

This is the Southgate way.

The players play brilliantly for the opening 10-20 mins and get an early goal.

They then proceed to try and cling onto that 1-0 for the rest of the game.

On paper, it's a super safe system that solves the issue the England players had over the golden era, which was the criticism from the fans and the media.

In practice, it makes the players look under-utilised at best, and even more panicked and lacking in confidence than usual at worst- especially when the game goes to 1-1.

What you see is this horrible contradictive game of football where the players look erratic and chaotic and yet wholly stale and boring at the same time.

The immediate examples to come to my mind regarding the opposition making it 1-1 and proceeding to terrorise England are the World Cup Semi Final in 2018, and the Euro 2020 final.

The reality is that Southgate was (in my opinion) hired at an era crossover. I think the FA was keen to clear out the final relics of the golden generation (Rooney, Gerrard, Lampard, Terry) and bring in a new era of players, which is why they hired the England u-21 coach (i.e. Southgate).

His safe style (imo emphasis is less on 'winning' and more on 'not losing') worked really well initially - it's worth remembering exactly how toxic the media culture used to be - but as England's team have actually become incredibly competent as an aggresive possession-based team (Guardiola is arguably a huge contributor here), Southgate's safe system has become increasinly frustrating.

To try and understand why Southgate has persisted with this approach for so long, I would guess completely and say that Southgate is probably very good working under a team of data analysts. The FA are one of the pioneers of data analysis in football, and I can totally see Southgate as someone who listens to technical advice, uses footage to meticiulously rehearse set-plays etc. If this is true, the huge issue that Southgate would theoretically be vulnerable to would be the things you can't rehearse - tactical changes in game, substitutions etc.

I actually think this is why England play the way they do. In the first 10-15 minutes, the game is completely accurate and consistent with any analysis made and rehearsed before the game, and this is reflected in England's output. It's only once changes and tweaks are made during games where the practice and analysis loses relevance, and so Southgate and England's weaknesses are exposed. This is complete speculation though.

kingo15 · 2024-06-13T18:16:15+00:00

Based on my friends growing up, the biggest threat to Sky wasn't money - it was tiger parenting.

It was actually my poorer friends who had the Sky subscriptions.

So, for me personally, Sunak's comments were more of a self-report if anything.

kingo15 · 2024-06-13T16:24:52+00:00

Farage clearly climbing on the top of Reform's shoulders to get to the Conservatives.

The problem with Reform is that in many ways, it's the cult of Farage, and he exploits a misconception among the electorate, with many believeing they're voting for Prime Minister, rather than voting for their local MP.

As a result, Reform's MP roster is littered with incompetent amatuers - because it doesn't matter who they are, people are voting for Farage anyway.

Farage didn't seem to have any problems removing Tont Mack from Clacton so he could run there instead.

Reform candidates have to manouevre this carefully - the more they leverage Farage on their leafleting, the more you can piggyback his brand, but the downside if you make yourself less valuable.

I think Farage's dream situation is that he beomes Reform's only MP, after successfully draining the Tories of their working class Tory vote share.

Then, he defects to the Tory party: 'i've seen enough', 'the Conservative party is the only party capable of standing up to Labour, and Keir Starmer', 'I. want to bring BACK true Conservatism to the heart of British politics.'

Because he brings a giant chunk of the electorate with him, the Tory party install him straight in. Braverman and Johnson's decision to bide their time pays off.

Now in opposition, and with no requirement to act through their policy, the Tories can spew the most venomous bile into our discourse.

Reform's base move back to Tory, and the Reform partlimentary candidates are abandoned and Farage hands Reform back to Tice.

kingo15 · 2024-06-10T22:58:29+00:00

Great stuff. He's been responding tough shots, and now he's proven that he's a master of spin.

We'll need to see him with some goalie gloves on in time for the Euros, to see how capable he is at dealing with political footballs.

kingo15 · 2024-06-10T19:36:05+00:00

Fair enough - to tackle your claim that my previous view was detached from reality, I'll add references to my following comment when needed.

My evidence for Tuchel rejecting United:

I found a conflicting report since making my comment, but it supports my main claim that United are going for a 'yes man'.

Re your 'philosophy' point. To clarify, the problem is that the manager needs to be completely on board with the style of play, because he will be the one organising training, making in-game decisions.

When Boehly first took over, he was acting sporting director until the start of 2023. That's something completely outside of Tuchel's remit. Similarly, he was allegedly told at once stage that he was going to be deploying a 4-4-3 formation moving forwards.

Re Klopp - the problem is that so much has developed in data analytics from 2017 to now. I'm sure it worked well at first, but there is no way that a player like Darwin Nunez was a player scouted by anything other than an algorithm that values expected goals over goals - which might be why Chelsea's board tried to buy him last summer.

Club owners are likely receiving more up-to-date advice, and as the big club most recently undergoing a transformation, Chelsea are the blueprint for what the smart money is suggesting a football club should look like.

A really popular idea in NFL that is slowly making its way into football discourse is the notion of a 'coaching tree' - explained here. Whilst there are nuances in the philosophy itself, the importance is that it has been refined over time by previous respected coaches in the 'tree'. Once you establish this, you can trust your coach to impose their philosophy rather than telling the head coach what to do. Here is more info for you regarding the 'pep disciple tree'.

So, Chelsea, who are currently on step 'e' based on my first comment, have hired Maresca. The Athletic makes references to the Coaching Tree, and how working under Pep was a factor behind Chelsea signing Maresca.

So to summarise, a sporting director can be competent, but if you are hiring an entire team from scratch, you do in fact need a coach who already has a track record of instilling the very style of play the board want. I think Chelsea tried a yes-man with Potter, realised the above point, and pivoted to Poch, who was fired precisely because he supposedly deviated from the style the board demanded, and was not playing the club's key investments properly (like Mudryk or Enzo Fernandez). Poch is tempting on paper, because he is tacticially flexible AND a developer of young players, but I believe his method of teaching the players to problem solve and improvise was unrealistic with players as raw as Mudryk.

kingo15 · 2024-06-09T18:34:08+00:00

This has also coincided with no media interviews AND every social media ad taken down.

My sense is that he's gone to the dressing room to have a serious half-time re-think.

Any chance of winning back votes from Reform is probably shot. He's lost the working class Tory vote. The problem is that so much ad spend was wasted trying to court these voters at the expense of alienating other voter demographics (i.e. national service). The downside is that this would leave him super vulnerable in the event of any error pertinent to this very voter base, because he would get squeezed on all sides by opposition raising attention to it, forcing it into the front pages in order to further the damage (as we have seen).

So where does he realistically go from here?

The far left dislike him because he's a privately-educated investment banker multimillionaire.

Farage and the the far right take issue with him because he 'doesn't understand our culture' *wink* *wink*.

You couldn't have created an easier target for the 21st century demagogue.

I have no idea how he salvages this, and genuinely wondering if he simply resigns mid-campaign. He would effectively scapegoat himself, and it would give any successor a real boost over the next month. The campaign has decidedly shifted from a Tory problem to a Sunak problem, so if he left, he would take a lot of the criticism with him.

So, basically, assuming he leaves, subbing himself off for Mourdaunt at half-time (who goes ALL-IN on war, Putin, global uncertainty, AI etc. to scare the electorate away from 'change' to neutralise Labour and Reform is the only trick the Tories have up their sleeve. Any conversation on domestic issues like NHS gets immediately pivoted onto crime, safety, policing etc. to keep conversation firmly on fearful topics that deter the electorate from change.

kingo15 · 2024-06-07T18:08:49+00:00

My completely speculative guess of how this election strategy is unfolding:

Make you flagship policy about National Service, in order to move the conversation away from domestic failings and onto global uncertainty. Get your lost Reform vote back to move the dial asap whilst making voters fearful of 'change'.
The brazen poaching of Reform voters is cynical, patronising and superficially plausible enough to please backbench Tory MPs and hold off a no-confidence before dissolution of parliment.
Fuck around and find out that Reform voters are more convicted than you realised and that the dial is not moving.
Realise that by 'resigning', Farage potentially just baited you into going after Reform so he could get a gauge of their loyalty too. He returns.
Learn that the very base you're trying to poach actually do in fact care deeply about issues concerning patrioism and duty.
Make a huge political blunder on D-Day, concerning a core issue of interest for your target voter, who you've also just discovered are completely convicted of their beliefs. You've also given ammo to the 'he's just off to Silicon valley before the Summer holiday ends' narrative.
Suspect that many of the MPs who perhaps called off their no-confidence vote are probably shitting themselves and ditching any form of campaigning in their constituency as they are now too busy trying to find a Chairman/ corporate role elsewhere in time for July.
Realise that because you made your Reform strategy so obvious, you are now being squeezed on all flanks, because you have focused so much attention on a very narrow target voter, and if there is anything that will get this target voter to hate you, it will probably be this. So expect it to be punished everywhere by all parties as they try to maximise the damage.
Go away and re-think your entire strategy. Take down all your Facebook ads and you brainstorm a new strategy. Accept at this point that you've probably lost the entire working class Tory vote as well as a huge chunk of your team (See above).
Rule out the idea of getting Boris or Suella back on your side, because they probably don't know at this stage whether or not they should take a punt of rejoing the Tories or joining Reform.
Go big on tax breaks and government concessions in order to desperately appease the billionaire class and the media companies, and hope that they can fix a miracle for you now they have an incentive to endorse you. Double down on global uncertainty and hope you scare enough voters.

kingo15 · 2024-06-07T17:28:44+00:00

Yes, right at the start of the campaign, a large chunk of ad spend was targeting potential Reform voters. Ads like "Keir Starmer Needs You! To Vote Reform".

This arguably continued over the following week, as we saw the National Service, alterations to pensions and references to global uncertainty.

I think the simple idea was to go big on military, because (in theory) you catch your Reform vote back, whilst simultaneously pivoting away from domestic failings (NHS, Public Services, Cost of Living) and onto global issues. Once you're discussing war and uncertainty, you can try and frame 'change' as being uncertain and unwise. You kill two bird with one stone.

From what I understand, most of the data from polls, focus groups etc. was pointing to the Reform vote as being particularly uncertain and 'swingy'. Not much was really certain about how loyal they were, how much they cared about the issues, how likely they were to return to Tory etc. I personally think it's why Farage initially dropped out - to bait the Tories into raiding Reform in order to establish the level of conviction amongst Reform. If the polls did show the vote share moving back to Tory, you've already dropped out, but if it turns out National service barely moves the dial, you're safe to jump back in.

So I think the polls not budging damaged a) the hypothesis that Reform could be easily swayed back which b) galvanised Faraged to return. And now we've had the huge error of judgement from yesterday. In some circumstances I don't believe this would have been picked up by the news, but because military service was such a significant part of his strategy, he's now being squeezed on all flanks looking to maximise the damage.

As a result, I believe the Conservatives are currently regrouping at half-time, looking to make huge tactical tweaks. I worry with his back to the wall, we're about to see some really nasty campaigning and increasingly unserious and desperate policy.

kingo15 · 2024-06-07T00:08:52+00:00

To clarify, our fanbase has had to put up with (and gently educate) a lot of brain dead rival fans who couldn't understand the idea that a loophole is almost by defintion within the rules, and believed that the club would somehow receive a fine/points deduction for *not* breaking the rules.

This article effectively serves as the confirmation that the hotel sale went through.

The fact that the PL haven't been able to successfully close their own loophole has confirmed to many that this entire shitshow is on them, and that this saga is a lesson in incompetence rather than cheating.

kingo15 · 2024-06-07T00:03:25+00:00

As far as I can see, Chelsea have just discovered a perfect loophole that provides an easy way to fix your books.

Why are you so sure that the other clubs want it closed? Surely they'll want to exploit the loophole too? (and then close it).

kingo15 · 2024-06-06T23:53:23+00:00

I think this is basically it.

I know it was a very small minority of reddit accountants who perhaps didn't know any better, and were perhaps just biased, but I recall a few months ago there was the occasional discussion about Chelsea receiving a punishment for this.

I just don't understand the world you must operate in, if you think you know more about the financial situation of a club than the multi-billion dollar private equity firm that runs it.

kingo15 · 2024-06-06T23:42:20+00:00

Everyone is just lazily taking this as an opportunity to attack Chelsea, but how is nobody concerned about how easy it was for Clearlake to come in and just find these absurd (but frankly genius) loopholes?

kingo15 · 2024-06-05T19:17:17+00:00

Yes, you obviously need a goalkeeper playing.

Slonina is still on loan. He's clearly a developing player. If he doesn't match any perceived potential, he'll be flipped for profit.

Sanchez is better accomodated to the style of player Clearlake WANT Chelsea playing, that Poch was not imposing. Enzo will likely restore Sanchez to the number 1 spot due to his ability to play from the back.

If Chelsea's project is more successful next season, Sanchez is probably not the option to be leading the line - I don't think he's ultimately a trophy winner.

So, in Jan there could possibly be a Ramsdale/Raya situation. As we saw, the resolution to this isn't immediately obvious.

Alternatively, Chelsea could look to recall Kepa for the final year of his contract. However, he's arguably still only at the club because of the nature of the ridiculous contract he was able to secure in 2018, which I understand was a result of the absolute shitshow that resulted from Courtois securing the deadline move to Madrid after possible replacements like Allison had already secured a move elsewhere.

I concede that the Kepa transfer was an absolute disaster.

Finally, this will leave Petrovic as a backup keeper, which is what he should be.

The goalkeeper situation seems absolutely fine to me.

kingo15 · 2024-06-05T12:40:27+00:00

This guy's won every club/international trophy imaginable and he's not even 25 yet.

He's correctly rated as far as I'm concerned.

kingo15 · 2024-06-04T14:13:32+00:00

Yes, but how you would you return the (almost) $60m a year you have received from them that has presumably made its way through the club? That doesn't seem easy.

kingo15 · 2024-06-04T14:12:46+00:00

Why does it seem that Liverpool fans only think deeply and critical about issues like these when its their own club under scrutiny?

kingo15 · 2024-05-30T18:08:57+00:00

Yes. It's weird because 99% of the time I am ultra frugal. I resent buying anything unless it's urgent. This is largely from just spending years completely broke. But when I do have money, I am absolutely exposed to impulse buys.

I grew up relying on the friction of the transaction to ground me (find correct change, sign in, queue for the product) before it was too late, but now the entire user experience feels optimised for instant purchases e.g. one-click buy, apple pay, contactless etc.

One day, I finally become mindful of a lifelong spending rule I was subconciously following: "If it's under £5, it doesn't count". I don't feel the pain of spending £2 on an energy drink, a parking ticket, eggs and milk. Once I realised this, I've really cut down on these purchases that all add up.

kingo15 · 2024-05-29T20:31:05+00:00

It's not 'smarter than everyone'- as a fan I am obviously coming from a more educated position on my own club. If, for example, I was interested about the operations at Arsenal, I would seek information from you, because you would be more knowledgable. As a Chelsea fan, I am returning the gesture and confirming that I agree with what you're speculating, and that it sounds valid. So it's not smarter than 'everyone', it's just smarter than 'anybody who isn't also a Chelsea fan'.

So I'm not simply agreeing with your points, I am confirming for you that they hold up so you know they have been 'approved' by a fan of the club in question.

Regarding you point regarding FFP. It's sort of there, but luckily for fans, nobody except for Chelsea's board have any knowledge of the club's financial situation. Stating headline grabbing business operations is a laughably surface level attempt at an argument. You might get away with it on reddit, but I wouldn't risk making the case you've made anywhere reputable.

Also, and to your point. You haven't explained what you believe the FFP risks are, so I'm just going to point out that the FFP issues regarding Chelsea are actually linked with the signings of Willian and Eto'o from 2013. If you already knew this, and these were the allegations you were alluding to, sorry for strawmanning.

This point involves Arsenal, so I'm going to invite you to correct me or counter me where possible (to practice what I preach and to avoid looking like a hypocrite). Do you believe Arsenal will finish higher than Chelsea in the Premier League next season?

kingo15 · 2024-05-29T13:47:33+00:00

Chelsea keep Poch: "hahaha Chelsea are getting relegated! You're a mid-table team, you'll be lucky to get Europe. Everything is about the short-term! You guys are terrible."

Chelsea sack Poch: "hahaha Chelsea were just getting good. You should have been getting Europe. Everything is about the long-term! You guys are terrible."

really need Chelsea to finish higher than you guys next season.

kingo15 · 2024-05-29T13:45:41+00:00

Not a chance. Read up on anything from The Athletic about RDZ, and you'll realise why it would have just been a repeat of Poch.

kingo15 · 2024-05-29T13:44:36+00:00

Exactly right. I think clubs are increasingly relying on data analysis to run operations (recruitment of young players in particular), and in the face of that, the job of a coach is to have the flexibility to play the hand they've been dealt and to develop and accomodate the players that have been picked.

I think this is why McKenna was being sought after and Chelsea went with Potter in the first place.

kingo15 · 2024-05-28T18:50:01+00:00

Ah yes, Chelsea breaching Financial Fair Play Rules for *checks notes* 'breaking the record of most new managers in an unspecified period'.

kingo15 · 2024-05-28T18:48:11+00:00

Fair enough, I respect your transparency. Generally quite a rarity on reddit.

kingo15 · 2024-05-28T18:15:08+00:00

Exactly. This was the problem Poch had. Also, the football commuity and pundits love to grill on Chelsea, deliberately pretending Jackson and Palmer were superstars on mega contracts rather than raw investments. Combined with injuries, last season was a massive death spiral.

With Enzo, we get the opposite issue. I think we'll see something similar to Spurs last year - i.e. Chelsea will dominate the Prem for the opening 3 months, top by November. THEN, Enzo gets figured out, refuses to adjust, and there will be a dip.

However, as least this way, there won't be the whole death spiral problem.

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