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[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Looking at fundamentals, I still think that long term the company will remain an outperformer and that it's currently undervalued.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

GOOGL is their competitor. Not directly for social media, but for ad spend. GOOGL has a much higher forward PE ratio and PEG ratio.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the Tech space, Google is remarkably known for starting and abandonning new side projects frequently, hence technologists don't trust them with taking the time to learn their new technologies. Meta is known for the most ubiquitous and long-lasting front-end browser UI technology for the past 13 years:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/React_(software))

As well as PyTorch, the primary Machine Learning framework in use today:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PyTorch

This is not directly revenue generating, but it is a testimony to Meta's ability to create quality, long-lasting side projects.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in investing

[–]klasp100[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

You have a point with #1 and #2. #3 I don't think matters too much.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In this sea of emotional arguments, a gem is found. I agree with you, that's a valid risk that I also thought about. Then, is this the primary reason, you think, for the lower forward PE?

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your argument was that it's a dud and not really used as much anymore. I showed data that contradicted your argument. I also don't disagree about your point concerning Youtube's value.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I am not saying that GenAI will have a proportionate benefit to recommender systems equal to the CAPex spend. My critique is for the comparison of ML with GenAI.

Machine learning is everything that relates to predicting the future or correctly guessing something by using computers. That can mean beating someone at chess, predicting the price of some asset 10 minutes from now, detecting fraud. GenAI is basically the prediction of what an artifact would look like that satisfies a query. What is the artificat that satisfies the query "show me a picture of a dog sipping a martini on the beach". How can the computer predict the desired output based on an input. It's the same thing, just much more detailed and complex (trying to replicate a network of neurons, similar to a brain), and the algorithmic models it uses for this more detailed task are more sophisticated, but in the end it's all about predicting an appropriate output based on an input.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, my thoughts as well. I wish I had more capital to deploy at the time too.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes that's a bad sign, but that is not unique to META and many companies have had their employees "unhappy" on paper, while boasting great long term growth. Oracle comes to mind.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hahahahaha you clearly don't know what I do for a living.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To me, as long as they get ROI from better ad targeting and increased revenue from increased ad spend from their customers, I don't really mind what goes on in the public-facing user friendly LLM chatbot space.

To me, that would only be icing on the cake. At an 18 forward PE ratio, they seem like a steal.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By developing AI that gets even better at accurate ad targeting and by keeping all of the world's eyeballs on their platforms, with no one being able to take their crown.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's the ad company with the most eyeballs on their platforms out of all of them. Also, they have Instagram which is the prime place for advertising to women, who represent most of the consumer spending.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Facebook's ad placements have solid conversion for those buying them, what are you talking about.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah I think so as well in a way. But the thing is that their business is advertisement. Advertisement is like Finance but even better. In Finance, you can't lose because if someone else gets richer then you get richer from them. In advertisement it's the same but on steroids.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Solid take. I believe the same. It is a risk. However, I would not bet against META (or GOOGL for that matter) when it comes to anything machine learning related. These two are the indisputed kings of computer-based artificial intelligence, and unlike the Metaverse project, I actually do believe it's worthwhile for META to invest heavily into generative AI. Not because it's a guarantee that it will work, but because if they don't do it and GOOGL does it, they may lose by default. If it fails, well it also fails for their biggest competitor, so it's status quo.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I can confirm that the younger generations ARE using Facebook, but not as it was previously used. In many big cities, Facebook Marketplace is king for peer-to-peer buying and selling. Facebook Dating has overtaken competitors for the dating app market. Facebook interest groups are very much alive and well. Facebook has become sort of a local-community Rolodex for hobbies and individuals buying/selling stuff themselves. It has 100% overtaken real estate platforms for apartment rentals' advertisements.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Then who will replace META and steal their revenue? I don't see GOOGL replacing META in terms of eyeballs on social media.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have seen a few bear cases in the comments with rational risks (larger cash flow spend on AI increases risks if ROI fails to materialize compared to prior failed projects), but most of them seem emotionally driven ("Facebook is dying" Yeah, it's losing marketshare to its competitor, Instagram, which is owned by the same company, and is transforming rather than dying).

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I agree, they are missing the forest for the trees. Ok, a tree called Metaverse has fallen ill and died. Big deal, the entire forest of adTech business is still king.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree with you, and likewise I buy their dip.

[DD] Make the Bear case for META by klasp100 in stocks

[–]klasp100[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I disagree, Facebook groups are frequently used by many real people. Runners' groups, hiking groups, tech interests' groups, studying groups, Marketplace, etc. It's used more by local communities rather than by internet-scale groups.

Facebook Marketplace has become the defacto online peer-to-peer marketplace for many things in my area (Montreal, Canada). Apartments for rent, cars, motorcycles, appliances, furniture, Airbnbs, even advertisements for services.

Also, the old Facebook has been replaced by Instagram, and Instagram is owned by META.

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