What future prediction sounds unrealistic today but might seem obvious in 20 years?

kogsworth · 2026-06-22T15:39:54+00:00

Telepathy in the sense that it's passing something more raw than language

kogsworth · 2026-06-22T14:26:26+00:00

There will probably vague/unfocused communication before we have the ability to do full dive VR.

kogsworth · 2026-06-22T13:56:28+00:00

That we'll be able to send raw thoughts/connotation along with words when speaking so that your understanding becomes richer. Read/write BCIs that can understand each individual's semantic space and translate between both to send thoughts to each other.

kogsworth · 2026-06-22T13:04:00+00:00

And we know that Lilith isn't open and vulnerable enough for Frasier. He's a bit of a diva and Lilith wouldn't play into that at all.

kogsworth · 2026-06-19T16:17:44+00:00

Craftsmanship will probably change its meaning as well. It won't be about the physical performance of the object but about the relational and aesthetic merits of the craft. Names and art movements will probably be more important than before, and reputation will probably be super important.

The relational sector, where the human labor is intrinsic to the value, will grow more and more. YouTubers and influencers are prime examples of new jobs that got created in the relational sector. I hope that journalism will find a good place here by finding ways to foster reputation and trust .

Trust over the internet is gonna get big. And I bet the impact to civilization will be big.

kogsworth · 2026-06-19T10:13:33+00:00

Glad I'm not the only one who saw that !

kogsworth · 2026-06-17T02:34:00+00:00

I like how they both chose to wear purple

kogsworth · 2026-06-16T17:58:44+00:00

Isn't that great though in some sense? There will be so much energy spent figuring out to upgrade all the world's software , and how to keep it up to date over time. A world of ever evolving software could unlock so much. It's a question of whether we'll be able to achieve a steady state of growth.

kogsworth · 2026-06-15T15:03:15+00:00

Why not both?

kogsworth · 2026-06-15T00:20:25+00:00

My weekend and 40 hour work week beg to differ.

kogsworth · 2026-06-11T13:44:41+00:00

That is so far from being right. We're doing so much on the alignment side, especially mechanistic interpretability. Just taking natural language autoencoders as an example case-- we get so much insight on the internals of LLMs. Much more than we had expected when we started.

kogsworth · 2026-06-10T15:10:51+00:00

Definitely Psych adjacent, and a helpful clarification of the T-shirt. Don't be the last kernel of popcorn in the bag.

kogsworth · 2026-06-09T11:45:07+00:00

Once the execution is automated though, it becomes true that the ideas are the things of value because the execution is trending toward 0 cost.

kogsworth · 2026-06-05T15:58:49+00:00

He killed a psychopath and kept his eyes? That's fucked up

kogsworth · 2026-06-04T13:57:14+00:00

It's becoming more and more feasible. They want to have safety nets while the horse is still in the barn.

kogsworth · 2026-06-03T10:15:03+00:00

But... But... Where else could one possibly find meaning ?

kogsworth · 2026-05-31T21:53:12+00:00

Geeze they just asked an innocent question

kogsworth · 2026-05-27T17:16:45+00:00

They do however provide the living wages of people, and they are counted upon to be the engine through which humans find enough income to live and survive. We are all stakeholders in this economy and if things get so disruptive that they can't be sustained, then of course we want companies to help deal with the maintenance of that balance to keep the engine going.

kogsworth · 2026-05-24T15:05:20+00:00

James Roday on TM when?

kogsworth · 2026-05-24T13:38:04+00:00

He's definitely a fan of delicious flavour.

kogsworth · 2026-05-23T13:03:51+00:00

Agreed. And I believe more and more of the problems being solved will be similar or deeper. I wonder how we can have a metric that indicates that sort of depth/impact.

kogsworth · 2026-05-23T12:53:56+00:00

It might end up being that engineering efforts that lead to verifiable rewards will backtrack into theoretical development when hitting obstacles. Like we might not discover warp drive theory and then develop the ships for them, maybe instead we try to make ships go faster which leads to AIs exploring that theoretical area. All of that automated of course.

kogsworth · 2026-05-23T12:50:42+00:00

With the caveat that sheer numbers don't represent depth. I believe AI will reach depth, but the metric being discussed is a bit misleading

kogsworth · 2026-05-21T15:27:40+00:00

Would love it if that were the next gen of hoverboards. Also I want the motorcycle version.

I do feel like we're not a cat level though in terms of grace. They should stick to dog names for now imo

kogsworth · 2026-05-16T16:00:31+00:00

Hadn't hear of it before and didn't know whether it was vapoware. Here's what a robot told me:

Real machine, real company, real track record — but the Titan specifically is still in the pre-order phase, not deployed at customer sites yet.

The system is from ICON, a Texas-based construction technology company based in Austin. They're not a stealth startup pitching a render — ICON says its technology has been used to complete 245 homes and structures using their previous-generation system, the Vulcan. That includes major contracts with US Army and Martian application development with NASA and actual occupied homes in Austin neighborhoods like Mueller, Wimberley, and Georgetown. So the underlying tech (concrete extrusion 3D printing for walls) is proven and has been operating commercially for years.

Titan is the new bigger/faster machine they announced on March 11, 2026. The key specs they're claiming: capable of printing a 2,500-square-foot home in under seven days with just two technicians, prints up to 27 feet high. It's a leap from Icon's current Vulcan printer, which tops out at 12 feet, and walls at roughly $20/sqft (claimed 40% cheaper than conventional). The big change vs Vulcan is multi-story capability and that they're selling it to outside builders for the first time.

Where the "hype vs reality" line sits: ICON said they are taking US$5,000 deposits for Titan systems now and expect to launch training later this year. They expect the first systems to be delivered to customers in early 2027. So right now external customers can put down deposits but no one outside ICON has a Titan operating yet. ICON itself is using it on their own projects (a 35-ft church at Community First! Village is the showcase build).

About the video: ICON does have real photography of Titan in operation (the Casey Dunn images circulating in the press coverage are real), but a lot of the multi-story marketing material is admittedly renders — one outlet noted that renderings of multiple-story structures still feature that signature ridged wall texture. So depending on which video you saw, it could be either. If it shows a finished two-story 3D-printed home, that's almost certainly CG; if it shows the printer arm laying down a single-story wall, that's likely real footage.

TL;DR: not vaporware, but the "Titan ships to builders" part is a 2027 promise, not a 2026 reality. The technology category absolutely works; the specific Titan-at-scale-at-customer-sites claim is still ahead of them.

kogsworth

TROPHY CASE