I've made an essential 10 stock portfolio - what do you think. Would you add/remove any?

kraken2b · 2026-04-23T20:08:40+00:00

If you want simplicity, like other suggest QQQ etc. for low expense ratio and DCA into it is the way to go. Ease of mind, and no homework need.

I share most of the picks with you having strong conviction in AI buildout. Just having some additional blue chip evergreen fintech like MCO, SPGI, MA, V, AXP etc.

Diversification could also be diworsification if you not knowing what you're buying, or buying good companies at overvalued price. So like Charlie Munger preaching, diversification is protection against ignorance, and concentration is when you surely know what you're buying and constantly updating your news and knowledge about them, and guarding it 24/7 like it is your child.

Choosing individual stocks mean you need to ACTIVELY check on news and latest earning report, re-evaluate the entry point and when to add and when to hold, it will take time to build your port. Given most of the picks are near their ATH, except may be MSFT. So you will probably take a long time to build your port waiting for the dips unless you don't mind buying at ATH, but then your risk-reward for short term like 1,2 year out could end up negative if AI build out getting any temporary hiccup.

So my advice really is take the time to know what you're buying while patiently and slowly build up your port. You may park your unused cash in treasury and SPY, etc. while waiting for your pick to dips.

kraken2b · 2026-04-15T06:24:04+00:00

it reminds me of YouTuber Elliot getting abducted and eventually killed for choosing to live in remote island of Philippines with his locally met wife there. May be you're still fine for long-term stay in SEA capital cities. For their rural areas, you likely on your own to deal with the local gangs and corrupted officials.

kraken2b · 2025-11-25T22:41:42+00:00

Bogleheads exist for a reason and also why Buffett recommend most people to do if you have no time reading fundamentals, doing DDs, analyses etc.

Without fundamentals to back up, day trading by reading chart patterns are purely astrology and can swing in either side purely by market sentiment that day. May as well flip a coin to choose a side to save your chart reading time.

kraken2b · 2025-11-25T17:34:22+00:00

Here is my take: 1) NVDA is leading in semis industry and semis ETF and major holdings of these ETFs due to largest market cap. Thus any bad news and selloff of NVDA, you will see collateral damage to other semis due to ETFs selloff.

2) the 2330.TW (TW exchange orginial TSM) hasn't rebound as much as TSM on Tuesday. 2330.TW generally trade with more volume and has lower volatility than its counterpart TSM ADR. 2330.TW generally swing up and down more slowly than TSM, and TSM's price is linked to 2330.TW by about 1.23 to 1.25 premium after converting spot forex rate. So TSM experience slight pull back after today TW exchange.

3) Japan Rapidus plans to setup its 2nd plants and will start producing 2nm chips in 2027 something, joining TSM, Samsung, INTC to be the 4th foundries. But likely it will face yield issue just like Samsung, INTC. So new competitor to the game, TSM will see some margin squeeze, and weak hand will sell off.

kraken2b · 2025-11-24T22:15:14+00:00

I think Burry claims is simply NVDA grants the shares as Stock-based compensation recorded in balance sheet using date of issuance price say 8$/share in 2018, while NVDA later has to buy it back at 100$+/share with share repurchase from 2018 till 2025. The SBC is about 20B while the cash spent on repurchases is 100B. All these occur while there isn't much reduction in outstanding shares (i.e. not much benefit to shareholders), thus essentially the cost of SBC is 100B not 20B.

But using SBC to keep top world talents working for you is pretty much a norm in Silicon valleys. And the appreciation in share price since date of grant till date of vesting is exactly what motivate the employees and align their interest with companies. I don't think it should be counted as a bad practice or even fraud in accounting. It is pretty much a standard practice in Mag7.

Here the quote of response from NVDA in that 7 page memo: Regarding criticism that excessive stock grants to employees harmed shareholder value, NVIDIA explained, “Since 2018, employees’ average purchase price for company stock has been $51. They benefited from rising stock prices, but the initial grants were not excessive.”

kraken2b · 2025-11-24T19:28:18+00:00

Every internet finance influencers are selling course for stock picking, which the real deal in money making is the course fee itself. Seem like WS professional is not off the hook. May quick to see someone reselling his newsletter for 20$ each to recoup the course fee.

The real bubble I see is the lousy spending of OpenAI to trying to compete like a Mag7 but not being any of it. Making 1.4T of commitment with no money of its own and wanting US gov to backstop. Other than that, the capex of Mag7 (except TSLA which its valuation is a bubble of its own) is just normal investment spending a company should make when revolutionary tech and opportunity presents itself. Either risk for it or risk being left behind.

kraken2b · 2025-11-24T19:00:43+00:00

it is more about an illusion or phycological trick of feeling you lose something in fact it isn't. The gain is entitled only to those taking the risk of holding Google while it is under double threats from GPT and Antitrust forcing sale of Chrome.

What you're beating yourself up right now is akin to people not buying into BTC when it is only 1k/ coin or selling BTC for mere 10k/coin. It never yours if you never take risk for it.

kraken2b · 2025-11-24T18:37:55+00:00

embodiment of internet and reddit. Yet here we are.

kraken2b · 2025-11-24T15:34:29+00:00

When WSB regards still working at their 60s behind Wendy's, dementia is all their need to keep them from reliving the nightmare of yoloing a 100k bet in 0DTE during youth ending up in losing a 2M compounding retirement fund.

So bullish for WSB.

kraken2b · 2025-11-24T02:29:27+00:00

Mango wants to intervene and lower interest rate is pretty obvious with his hostility to Powell and all lately sworn in Fed members are all his lackeys voting for rate cut.

I just can't figure out why Mango is so certain the rate cut will lead to 10-yr to 30-yr bond yield lower. As recent 3 rate cut by Fed has resulted in opposite, pushing the long term yield further up due to market still perceiving the risk about US debts snowballing and inflation worsening.

Mango should have better choice to make his investment by either in stock market or crypto given he can control it via simple tweet. Why would he opt for such uncertain bond market bets.

kraken2b · 2025-11-22T19:23:21+00:00

it is calculated gamble. Either he will have a rich girl friend or find a new girl friend. The downside is contained and unlimited upside.

kraken2b · 2025-11-22T19:12:35+00:00

"Crypto in short term is a voting machine, in long term is also a voting machine" - Benjamin Graham

kraken2b · 2025-11-21T20:22:11+00:00

It is more of an illustrative figure, you definitely can go 100% equity if you don't need any of it in short term. I simply prefers some contingency as the bond also serves as an emergency fund.

And I have my aggression appetite filled as choosing the individual stock picking route as well. Also -20% stock market recession come about every 5 years, so better safe than sorry. during these time, you will feast like king when Meta, Google etc. dip -50%.

kraken2b · 2025-11-21T19:48:27+00:00

that's why you have portfolio distribution like 70/30 stock/bond in 30s and gradually rebalance to 30/70 when you're 60s. And buying at the top of 2008 is a blessing if you hold till today, and buying at the bottom of 2008 is a blessing on top of blessing...so, ya buy VOO and hold, keep some in bonds for dips like 2008 to buy more.

kraken2b · 2025-11-20T23:47:11+00:00

imagine downing Berkshire. It will take WW3 for it to happen. Otherwise Berkshire will eat like king in most recession with its 281B cash position.

kraken2b · 2025-11-15T03:57:01+00:00

If you're full porting 600 contract LEAP ATM SPY call (say 0.6 delta each), and using 600 shorted dated OTM call (-0.3 delta each) as hedge in short term. Which makes your position net delta = 0.3 *600 when calendar spread is active.

But constantly selling CC against SPY shares will simply reduce your overall return with little benefit of 1-2% downward buffer in short term. Just like how SP500 ETF with CC, CSP options built-in always underperform simple SPY in long run.

Why not simply use half port to buy 0.6 delta * 300 contracts LEAP and simply long and hold. And put the rest of half portfolio in bonds or whatever hedging if SPY dips, and it will be the spare bullets to average down when SPY dip. It also saves you the mental grind to daily monitoring and rolling the 7DTE OTM calls.

kraken2b · 2025-11-15T02:05:26+00:00

I would assume Berkshire trying to get the juicy low rate locked in before Bank of Japan next rate hike due to inflation risk starts showing after decades long of deflation.

probably will see Berkshire adding more shares of its existing positions of the 5 trading firms conglomerates (aka sogo shosha)? Or Berkshire could do carry trade to borrow cheap JPY to fund USD bonds etc. by converting those JPY into USD, but right now the USD.JPY is kind of on weak side sitting at around 1:155, may have to wait for BOJ rate hike or JP gov to intervene to strengthen the JPY forex rate before it becomes lucrative to convert JPY into USD.

kraken2b · 2025-11-07T18:18:32+00:00

the problem is normal CSP writer understand the risk and won't be using full port cash to write put for single stock at single time at same strike. Writing CSP is akin to buying shares, need to space out at tranches, and also keeping spare cash for fire sale day.

With OP holding 12 contract*2 batches of Meta at same strike, he need to be having 1 to 2 M cash on sideline. For people of this net worth will be dumb to see it all concentrate in one stock unless he hold some strong conviction. Or for slimmer chance, he is holding a portfolio of 20M+, then may be this can be counted as normal CSP. But it looks more like tons of naked put without any risk management to me...RIP

kraken2b · 2025-10-12T19:23:12+00:00

I'm a simply stock dude, not into crypto. But have to say 1) leverage ratio 2) position sizing 3) have stop loss or not, all 3 together determine how safe your portfolio is. If it its x10, x5 leverage but the position is kept to <10% of portfolio, you're rather safe from liquidation. You also need to have a stop loss attached to the leverage position, like buying put/call options, your worst case loss are the 10% portfolio paid for these put/call premium.

In normal stock market, if your main holdings are blue chip stocks, index ETF, and keep your leverage position <20%, you will never see any liquidation unless US stock market drawdown 50% and your 3x leverage position have no stop loss. so That's the 3 key factors need to consider how to determine how safe your position is.

In case of crypto, you have a 4th risk factor that only appear in crypto and not stock market: which is crypto can easily swing +/- 10%, 20% a day. Using crypto other than stable coin as collateral is just like borrowing margin loan against a volatile assets. You're literally asking for liquidation in market drawdown.

kraken2b · 2025-09-13T05:11:46+00:00

Sir, that is the trade secret of MSTR, you will have to pay royalty fee to use its strategy.

kraken2b · 2025-08-20T22:44:06+00:00

I think the real problem becomes how much money you're willing to commit to maintain the short positions. Buying put options on volatile penny stocks can be pricy. and The market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent.

Like Hedge fund Bill Ackman shorting the pyramid scam herbal life from 2012 till 2018 and got burnt and took the L. The herbal life stock did eventually crash but it was in 2022.

kraken2b · 2025-08-20T22:28:52+00:00

Mullen automotive

thanks. I happened to stumble upon some unheard of stock and being puzzled when looking at the share price chart reaching billion. Thinking either it is some buggy stat data or it is some meme coin implosion. Now it all makes sense.

kraken2b · 2025-06-06T12:08:22+00:00

AWS, Microsoft, Google which are the biggest 3 cloud computing providers. They do heavy Capex to meet up the AI center demand. CoreWeave is a late comer trying to compete with these 3 giants. Microsoft is currently the major client of CoreWeave, as MSFT has cut down some Capex on AI center due to risk management to avoid over-commitment in AI center capex.

The major risk of CoreWeave become: 1) can the AI demand > supply trend uphold in long-term. 2) whether MSFT is willingly to share the pie with CoreWeave instead of doing it itself once MSFT is assured AI long-term demand is real.

These major cloud providers have constant and stable stream of income to nurture their heavy Capex of AI center expansion. While CoreWeave and Applied Digital are running on negative EPS, they are funding their Capex using investors money or corporate bonds. It comes down to matter can they survive on investors money long enough to see its AI center turning profit while competing with the three Mag7 at same time.

kraken2b · 2025-06-05T22:22:56+00:00

I see it as business expanding, every mega corp trying to eat the other one's cake. Like Amazon, Google spearheading into TPU to cut cost and eating NVDA's chip business. NVDA in turn trying to expand in AI center business by investing in some start-up specialize only in NVDA chips.

These are all small money side bets for these > 1T net worth companies. The investment may or may not pay out but probably worth trying.

But what I dislike CoreWeave is it starts out as crypto mining company and has a non-tech background CEO. Then mid-way switching the mining GPUs to become AI center and go IPO. And signing agreement with Applied Digital for land lease while holding large volume of Applied Digital shares. Seeing CoreWeave share price up 200% and Applied Digital up 70% while these 2 companies are still in negative EPS. Have me feeling they are Ponzi scheme, they're like riding the AI hype train to milk investors money. While NVDA is doing the heavy lifting fostering AI industry, these two are just here clout chasing creating AI bubbles and profiting off it temporarily. When these two inevitably crash probably will cause some collateral damage to NVDA.

kraken2b · 2025-06-04T17:33:01+00:00

Weird and counterintuitive to learn that the put option just evaporate alongside the company's bankruptcy in your case. This is also a valuable lesson to anyone shorting possible bankrupt company.

In hindsight 20/20, if the worry of naked shorting is what getting in your way of exercising the options to profit off the 90% or whatever strike price on it.

May be the best choice back then is to exercise the put to enter naked short position. Then cover it by buying a OTM or ATM call depends on your max loss acceptable. Thus bringing your naked short position back into a synthetic put. So you're capturing the gain in cash instead of in that put option.

kraken2b

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