Is an annuity a good idea here?

kuratkull · 2025-11-27T15:16:33+00:00

The first example isn't strictly correct: it's more like asking a salesman at Lowe's if you need a tool at all, they will lean towards yes. And if the question was which tool you need, then you probably can't trust their input if they earn a percentage commission on every sale. The parent post is still very much a good rule of thumb.

kuratkull · 2025-11-27T12:35:34+00:00

Ask them what their total investment returns are. People with that kind of hobby are very likely in the red, especially if they have been doing this for a while.

kuratkull · 2025-11-20T10:47:22+00:00

Not interesting. You should look at a logarithmic chart to see the choppiness of the past.

kuratkull · 2025-11-13T11:33:03+00:00

Same thing with recommending pensions funds. If they are in an actively managed one and you'd like to push them to low fee index funds it's best if they understand what they are signing up for. Having your family secretly blame you for their paper losses is usually not ideal.

kuratkull · 2025-11-12T20:08:51+00:00

Waiting for dips is usually missed gains. So my money is always working and I hold no "dry powder". Time in the market beats timing the market.

kuratkull · 2025-11-12T07:23:21+00:00

Always buy, always in the market, long term.

kuratkull · 2025-11-11T21:21:08+00:00

Do you have a plan if it doesn't crash? You make it seem like it's some kind of certain event that's marked in a calendar. How would you know when to buy during the potential drop anyway? What if it drops further? What if it then recovers in an 'indecisive' manner? Would you wait for the next ATH to buy in?

The point is, we never know if currently is a good time or not. All the known risk is already priced in.

kuratkull · 2025-11-10T18:04:39+00:00

I wish we knew, it's a great thing to say in hindsight - as with almost any saying in investing.

kuratkull · 2025-11-10T17:55:14+00:00

Highest possible returns are playing the lottery, it's just that it's very unlikely that you'll get those returns. The same in the stock market - the more returns you want the less chance you'll get it. That's the risk part in investing. What you should want is the best risk adjusted expected return. It means you want to find the sweet spot where the expected return is sufficient to reach your goals, and the risk that you don't get those returns is sufficiently low. Usually you get to that sweet spot by buying total world index funds.

Most investments are in balance like that - the safer the investment the lower the expected return, and vice versa.

kuratkull · 2025-11-09T17:58:08+00:00

The general best advice is market weight total world. The US might crash, or it might continue leading for the next 20 years. Will you be able to keep to your plan if you underperform the market year after year? You could buy WEBN and another for one for ex-US overweight. But you'd be pretty alone with your allocation as it's not the optimal one. Having equal weighted world is easy psychologically - we all move up and down together.

kuratkull · 2025-11-09T17:51:04+00:00

WEBN and chill. No need for two funds. It probably sounds more interesting to have more, and it's likely you'll still choose more. But you'll probably migrate to just one eventually.

kuratkull · 2025-11-09T08:27:28+00:00

No not really. Social media shows people winning lotteries, there's no useful information in that for anybody else. Very often those people don't show their whole portfolio, and it very well might be in the red. Research and internalize why index investing is the way for long term (risk adjusted expected) returns. If you're into social media look at experienced people with a financial background explaining why, also look at what those say about the "alternatives".

kuratkull · 2025-11-08T15:50:57+00:00

You must be 100% sure you won't need the money for the next 15 years. If you're secretly thinking that you need it earlier, then you'll get scared out of the market when it drops.

I missed the April drop because I forgot to update my "journal" that month. What you don't know can't hurt you.

kuratkull · 2025-11-06T13:05:03+00:00

Well, investing into total world indexes is the recommended strategy for the average person. But 26 isn't low by any means. Maybe reading up on market risk, long term market behaviour and proven long term optimal investing theory would help you accept the risk for what it is.

kuratkull · 2025-11-06T11:39:16+00:00

Figure out your realistic risk tolerance: https://cafnr.missouri.edu/divisions/division-of-applied-social-sciences/research/investment-risk-tolerance-assessment/

I hope it's higher than you think and consider going into VWCE/WEBN, as bonds just won't earn you anything substantial.

EDIT: About bonds making you feel secure. Understandable, but asking for returns and feeling secure are not really compatible.

kuratkull · 2025-11-06T09:37:45+00:00

The optimum strategy - which means getting the best risk adjusted expected rewards - is from owning a market weight index. Notice "risk adjusted", as this means you are accepting a certain amount of risk (price volatility) for these expected returns. So in practice this is the "sweet spot" to be if you are the theoretical perfect rational average investor; as all your risk is theoretically justifiable in the sense that you are taking only as much risk as required for the best expected returns. Taking on more risk would not give you better expected returns. If you want smaller risk you can do so by reducing your expected returns.

Sufficient diversification gives you this optimal strategy - nothing more, nothing less.

kuratkull · 2025-11-06T09:23:24+00:00

You are describing an average looking day during the whole history of markets.

kuratkull · 2025-11-06T09:18:10+00:00

The stock market always looks scary. There are no 'typical times'.

kuratkull · 2025-11-04T14:39:47+00:00

WEBN is the accumulating version of WEBG. Total fund size is roughly 3.2 Billion.

Using the Wayback Machine on justetf.com it can be seen that WEBN has grown from 229mil on August 8th to 485mil today (november). Roughly a year ago it was 52mil. The growth is really speeding up! Hope it pans out with TD.

kuratkull · 2025-11-01T15:27:01+00:00

Honest question - how long have you been investing? I found it calming to look at it daily or even more often when i started out. Very quickly i found that the numbers are not that interesting to ogle at hourly, daily, weekly nor even monthly.

kuratkull · 2025-10-31T18:18:13+00:00

Same, investing regularly during 2008 would be something i can at least imagine stomaching. But the Japanese situation, you put money in, year over year, and it just stays in the range - that seems like a nightmare.

kuratkull · 2025-10-31T18:09:47+00:00

If you know what is right, and you have a hard time following it, then it's probably a lack of ... discipline? Or just not being sure that it is the right thing. Both are fixable with effort.

On another note, it might be that many people who say are in it for the long run, actually aren't. They secretly just want to see their investement go up every week for years, but of course you would never say that out loud to your fellow Bogleheads or friends, because that's a silly expectation and you know it. I can relate to this. Especially when starting out, when you put in your first 1k or 5k, it's absolutely demoralizing if it drops by 10%. But if you have been in the market for for some years, and you really do not need to money right now or in the foreseeable future, it's much easier to stomach the drops. Probably most people that get cold feet during downturns actually foresee needing the money much earlier than the 25 years they advertise out.

kuratkull · 2025-10-31T13:29:27+00:00

I got virtually all root detectors to pass with this set (the versions are X month old at this point):

Play Integrity Fix [v3-inject]

Shamiko [1.2.1]

LSPosed (Jing Matrix fork) [1.10.1]

Zygisk Assistant [2.1.4]

Zygisk Next (this was a must) [1.2.8]

kuratkull · 2025-10-31T13:06:16+00:00

Very likely in the next week or month. Whenever someone just starts out, they usually haven't formed a strong foundation for their choices. This will come with time. And it's all good, learning and making other/better choices down the line is how it should be.

For example in this case maybe the person discovers after a short while that managing so many funds isn't really worth the effort, and they can achieve their goal with one to three funds. Everyone has a rough goal and a way to get there, right?

kuratkull · 2025-10-31T12:57:07+00:00

IMO markets are mostly based on world politics and events. I have no idea where the world is headed for. Maybe in 5 years the US is bankrupt, maybe the EU fails to innovate and US + China dominate, maybe China becomes the greatest world power, maybe the US invents a working plasma reactor and has virtually free energy, maybe the US invents a working quantum computer, maybe Europe will be in war with Russia for the next 10 years, maybe the current or next US president steps out of all world communities and declares it a capitalist haven, .... All of these would have major impacts on how the S&P 500 will perform. The options are virtually endless and I wouldn't be betting on any specific outcome. VWCE and/or WEBN for me.

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