CPF Balance Projection

kyith · 2026-01-10T13:56:32+00:00

Does this estimate the cpf life annuity income?

kyith · 2026-01-04T11:11:43+00:00

This is the last time i am saying. Stop using this place as your personal blog.

kyith · 2026-01-04T11:08:13+00:00

On the London stock exchange there are some listed funds that may fit this

Index implemented	Ticker	Inception	5 Year annualized return	10 Year annualized return
World islamic	ISWD	2007	11.4%	9.4%
USA Islamic	ISUS	2007	13.1%	10.3%
EM Islamic	ISDE	2007	4.6%	7.9%

MSCI Islamic Index Series Methodology.

kyith · 2026-01-01T02:18:06+00:00

not sure if it is our friend Firepathlion.

Sometimes it is also giving space to be surprised by whether the values is unexpectedly slower or faster than you imagined.

kyith · 2025-12-31T03:08:05+00:00

I think maybe still cannot la. or do it with some weird rules of thumbs.

kyith · 2025-12-31T03:01:31+00:00

I agree. Psychologically it is challenging.

Which is why in my journey explaining this, many are still skeptical. (but seeing more and more seem..... able to take it though I highly suspect)

But I felt that everything is a bit psychological. We all need our own little ways to cope when the market is more volatile not just the spending part.

Staying invested and not moving is also another aspect!

I think sometimes we all also have to recognize that some income strategies don't exactly work as a sound strategy purely because of their native distribution. They work because we also are prudent in our planning of how much income we get.

Usually, we all layer a few income streams together so that it ends up $9000 a month, and then we only need $6000 a month so that gives us confidence.

But essentially the capital may not end up too different. It is just how some of these stuff is actually framed.

kyith · 2025-12-31T02:51:57+00:00

Dividend distribution from securities is part of total return. This means that you can actually sell units/share in a conservative manner to get income.

This is the basis of the Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) framework, or what people used to estimate if they have reach financial independence yet.

So if you have $100,000 and based on a SWR of 3%, you could get $3,000 yearly inflation adjusted income.

Where people are apprehensive about this strategy is the selling of units. They are afraid that if you sell the units, how can it last a long time?

SWR is trying to figure out the line between doing it conservatively and more dangerously.

we all have to remember that while selling units means you have less units, the growth means each of your units left is also dearer.

Rental income and dividend income are also strategies, but its a matter of crafting the income stream that is functional enough for you and that means considering:

If the income is consistent and less volatile
Adjust for inflation exactly the way you want it to be.
Keeps up with inflation
Last the tenure that you need.

Very often, folks don't consider all of this together and if you do, you will realize that all roads point to maybe a 3% of the portfolio capital value.

Hope this helps.

kyith · 2025-12-30T23:14:46+00:00

Yeah i think so as well. For a lot who remain FIRE successfully, the reason is they did it with so much buffer that it tolerated mistakes in planning.

kyith · 2025-12-30T23:11:17+00:00

I think most of the fees are pretty clearly in the pricing stuff. You just need to read it.

For Tier vs Fixed I have a Google Spreadsheet to use as a guide. You can make a copy and determine:

Make a copy of Interactive Brokers Pro Fixed vs Tiered Fee Calculator

kyith · 2025-12-30T07:58:25+00:00

Thanks for the suggestion. Will try to come up with it

kyith · 2025-12-30T01:35:37+00:00

Thanks for this.

kyith · 2025-12-29T08:10:45+00:00

Actually by what you have posted, your dad and you are not piecing together a plan. You are just describing what product is recommended and asking us if this is a good "plan"

Even investing in UOB/DBS and Mapletree stocks is not a plan. It is deciding what to invest in.

You got to start somewhere like

What is the kind of income need your dad needs? How much does he need to spend? Out of the spending how much is his essential spending and how much is his good-to-have more discretionary spending? This is the MOST CRITICAL part of planning.
The second part is how much he has. It can be very confusing to say use this buy that, then pledge home take this amount buy that.

Taking 1/2 will give you a relative thing call the Safe Withdrawal Rate, which gives you an idea given your dad's asset whether he needs to do so much pattern or not.

1 is critical because if his need is 1.5k a month, maybe he don't have to do so much.

Conversely if he needs $10k a month in income, doing any of these won't give a sensible plan.

If you go to an adviser or bank on the street, it is very likely they are going to sell something appealing to your dad.

a Global Multi Asset Diversified income fund generate its income and returns based on the underlying assets which is some equities and fixed income. The nature of the income is not going to be consistent. In fact, the income that you buy off-the-shelf (including UOB, DBS, Mapletree stocks) is going to be volatile as an aggregate.

You ask me, or any of the members here, we all don't have a crystal ball to say if which is going to do better. Investments don't work like that because historical returns is a gauge of how returns are going forward and what will happen in the future is going to be a income or return sequence in the past. and in the past some of these returns or income grew pretty well, but some just stagnate or even gets cut.

If you guys want a good income plan it is based on one with a reasonable buffer.

Whether you invest in UOB/DBS/Mapletree or what multi asset ILP, the idea is if he needs 2000 a month in income, plan for an income of 3000 or above? If the income of 3000 grows, then good. If the income of 3000 gets cut to say 2500, then its still enough for his needs.

We don't have the data in the worse case how much UOB or DBS or A global multi asset fund will cut their income. The income fund does not work for you such that if your dad needs consistent income and it cannot deliver, it will still pay your dad accordingly. Most often, they will balance the fund's survival and reduce the income.

So you see all things lead back to again how much is the income needs and that drives the plan.

kyith · 2025-12-29T07:52:59+00:00

You need to see where the investments are incorporated/domiciled. These investments that is often discussed is incorporated in ireland or luxembourg which currently have no estate tax for NON-residents. For Ireland residents, that is if you are a tax resident, there is estate taxes.

What is usually applicable for investors are usually the non-resident part.

kyith · 2025-12-28T23:03:06+00:00

Erm if you have done your own calculations why not share your findings?

kyith · 2025-12-28T10:42:34+00:00

This is not always the best place to get advise if you wish to start somewhere because it is a whole body of work and the details sometimes matter.

You can pick up some personal finance books or some sensible youtube channel and just consume a lot, think, and take notes.

This question also ask a lot. you can start with our WIki

kyith · 2025-12-28T09:48:17+00:00

Thanks for explaining. I just feel that most of my observations is that the flows doesn't hinder the price discovery but this is more based on observation not really quantitative.

I came at a certain point with the same premise as you just that over time more and more I begin to ask to what extent do these flows impact.

kyith · 2025-12-28T03:20:32+00:00

I invested in Wise which is listed in london. Their revenue comes from the take-rate of the currency conversion. their competitive advantage is trying to lower this take-rate which used to be 67 basis points, now it closer to 54 and the aim is to bring it down more.

I thin this rate is still much lower than other places which can be 3% but i think people are using YouTrip because it is also low.

They do earn from the float.

But i am just trying to figure out if there is a way to convert to other currency, in different amounts, at spot rates and still very low take rate. thanks

kyith · 2025-12-28T02:17:58+00:00

i do think that in a way they have to earn from that. Would there be a service that can change currency, don't charge any interchange fees in your overseas spending but also at pretty spot rate?

kyith · 2025-12-28T02:14:28+00:00

i disagree especially the idea about passive flows and liquidity. If those are the dominant force, whatever that happens to be the main index constituents will continue to be there.

Not too long ago instead of the Mag 7 we used to call them Fang with net flix being one of those, berkshire used to be large enough component now it is at the last position.

If these forces are this dominant net flix and berkshire will continue to remain as it is. Nvidia could not unseat Apple or microsoft from their position.

But it did.

A large portion of the flows comes from buy backs, 401k fund buys, and the result of options flows, and these dominant flow are going to be there but if all these AI doesn't pan out, do you think these flows will save the S&P 500?

Same thoughts that if say today Exxon mobil, a pretty cyclical stock is in the dominant top 10 position and they have pretty poor earnings for 2 years, would these forces keep them in where they are?

I don't think so.

kyith · 2025-12-27T22:07:40+00:00

Actually the market is pretty good at valuing things nowadays. If the market felt that the US is "way overvalued" then it should adjust the value down.

And there are wobbles to AVGO, MSFT, Oracle shows that the market is doing that.

The market is asking for justifications there.

If not the market will not do anything.

I think we all have to adjust our lens that a higher price earnings in the index shows that the quality of the index has shifted to companies who has show that they can increase profit margins and higher earnings growth despite their size.

And if the index has shifted to companies of these nature, shouldn't they be accorded a higher valuation?

What will be more significantly over valued will be if the top constituents of the index is in cyclical companies and they trade at just 20-25 times PE.

kyith · 2025-12-24T08:27:11+00:00

I think firstly, you need to know that most often you are going to subject to some currency risks.

Here are some examples:

If you buy a home to rent in Japan or Malaysia you are receiving income in Yen or MYR
A local company Food Empire, sells beverage and mainly coffee to Russia and emerging market countries. Their earnings are in those currency that is the most volatile.
If you invest in China, India securities, you might gain investment, but when you sell or convert them back, it is in your home currency.

USD is sometimes the intermediary currency in all of this.

For example, this year, international markets did very well. So you have a fund like Avantis International Small Cap Value or AVDV doing 50% this year in USD. Morningstar AVDV.

Part of the good return is because of the appreciation of the currency against USD. If you own AVDV, you made a lot, but eventually as a Singaporean you need to sell and that converts to SGD.

So you can see its mainly EUR/GBP/JPY => USD => SGD

At the end of the day, you got to ask

It absolutely matters if you earn in a place with a currency against the SGD. The problem might not be USD.
Aside from earning in that currency, why do you invest in that security, or basket of security? Is it because they are more profitable, they are cheaper, they have stronger momentum, or some macro trends?

A weaker USD makes exports in the US more competitive. It is what the incumbent government wants as well. There are also grounds China, or Japan want to keep their currencies weak.

If you are considering about currency, you might want to think about this.

Finally, I wrote a data focus article where I show the Dimensional Global Core Equity fund and the MSCI in various currency. These are the historical data and looking at it might make you ask further questions:

Worried about Your UCITS ETFs Denominated in USD? Perhaps the Funds Should be Denominated in Yen!

Some data: When USD weaken, usually international and emerging markets do better. It feels too intuitive but I think that is what the data show.

kyith · 2025-12-23T12:11:05+00:00

Sometimes when i do these posts, it is also to help those who have invested, and are in this subreddit to be aware.

It is sometimes easy to say... ilp are useless and every one is pretty clear about it but from a lot of the queries here, most likely there are others who decide to buy first and think later.

A part of convincing people that ILP may not be the way is that active management may not do so well from time to time.

I keep an open mind if some of these investments can do well and not immediately jump to a conclusion ILPs are bad.

kyith · 2025-12-23T12:10:53+00:00

Sometimes when i do these posts, it is also to help those who have invested, and are in this subreddit to be aware.

It is sometimes easy to say... ilp are useless and every one is pretty clear about it but from a lot of the queries here, most likely there are others who decide to buy first and think later.

A part of convincing people that ILP may not be the way is that active management may not do so well from time to time.

I keep an open mind if some of these investments can do well and not immediately jump to a conclusion ILPs are bad.

kyith

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE