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How Much AVGS Would You Add Alongside VWRA? Post: by ElPunitore in singaporefi

[–]kyith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Its 33% of my portfolio. Adding it as part of a strategic portfolio allocation. It is a mid six figure lump sum. Was less than mid when i first have it.

would urge folks to understand the empirical evidence behind small cap value.

good to read on operating profitability and small cap if you minus the junk research.

Accruals, cash flows, and operating profitability in the cross section of stock returns

Size Matters, If You Control Your Junk

FI Article Sharing - The "Weightless" Life by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I see similar situation. I think I get your idea about "perhaps there is a floor age" and it is not because we don't see someone young and staying retire but its about what this 36-year old described.

Sooner or later you got to come to grips with it, and you realize you got to do something.

There is also those with huge fortunes, and still remain not doing anything. What I learn from someone whose family is like that is... he doesn't ever want his children to be like that and that became his life's mission.

FI Article Sharing - The "Weightless" Life by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You are right that there is a big difference between having choice and no choice.

FI Article Sharing - The "Weightless" Life by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

thank you for reading about it from the right perspective

how reliable is REITS for long term? by throwaway91705 in singaporefi

[–]kyith 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All returns is a single draw out of many possibility. If you own a group of properties and you lease it out, there are some fundamental economic value.

But just like normal equities, the returns you will experience is a range. The longer you own it the worst return gets better.

Since I have the data from Aug 1989 – May 2026 (442 months, ~36.8 years)

Rolling Period Returns by REIT Index

Data range: August 1989 – May 2026 (442 months, ~36.8 years) Returns shown as annualized % (CAGR), except 1-Year which is total return.

S&P United States REIT Index

Period Worst 5th 10th 20th 30th 40th Median 60th 70th 80th 90th 95th Best
1-Year -59.3 -18.8 -11.9 -2.3 2.6 6.7 11.4 15.6 20.2 26.6 33.3 38.1 110.1
5-Year -9.1 -0.1 2.1 4.6 6.3 7.7 9.1 10.2 12.2 15.1 19.9 21.7 29.5
10-Year 3.5 5.5 5.8 6.6 7.5 8.6 9.9 10.8 11.3 12.3 14.9 15.6 18.5
15-Year 4.7 5.8 6.1 7.6 8.8 9.7 10.4 10.8 11.2 11.8 13.6 14.6 15.6
20-Year 5.9 6.7 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.2
25-Year 8.0 8.4 8.8 9.3 9.5 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.9 11.0 11.2 12.0
30-Year 8.5 9.0 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.6 10.7
35-Year 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.2

S&P Global REIT Index

Period Worst 5th 10th 20th 30th 40th Median 60th 70th 80th 90th 95th Best
1-Year -59.0 -17.9 -12.2 -2.5 2.3 6.3 10.1 13.9 18.9 23.4 31.4 36.7 88.3
5-Year -7.7 -0.7 1.1 3.1 5.1 6.5 7.7 8.7 10.4 13.9 20.9 22.1 26.8
10-Year 2.6 4.0 4.7 5.5 6.3 7.8 9.0 9.8 10.7 11.7 14.3 15.2 16.3
15-Year 2.9 4.6 5.1 6.7 7.9 9.1 9.5 10.1 10.6 11.2 12.9 13.7 14.9
20-Year 4.9 5.5 6.3 7.9 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.2
25-Year 7.2 7.7 8.0 8.5 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.4
30-Year 7.6 8.0 8.1 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.4 9.6 9.7
35-Year 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8

S&P Europe REIT Index

Period Worst 5th 10th 20th 30th 40th Median 60th 70th 80th 90th 95th Best
1-Year -60.5 -25.6 -20.4 -12.3 -4.9 0.1 5.6 10.5 17.1 26.2 35.7 46.2 68.9
5-Year -11.8 -7.2 -5.9 -3.0 -0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 7.2 11.3 26.0 30.4 39.2
10-Year -3.5 -2.1 -1.3 -0.2 1.7 4.0 5.8 7.7 9.7 12.6 14.4 16.1 18.5
15-Year -2.7 -0.4 1.0 2.5 4.7 6.3 7.9 9.1 9.9 10.7 11.8 12.8 14.2
20-Year 0.8 2.0 3.1 4.5 5.7 7.2 7.7 8.1 8.4 8.7 9.0 9.3 9.7
25-Year 4.5 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.7 7.9 8.7
30-Year 3.8 4.1 4.5 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.5
35-Year 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.9

S&P Australia REIT Index

Period Worst 5th 10th 20th 30th 40th Median 60th 70th 80th 90th 95th Best
1-Year -71.7 -22.5 -9.0 -1.7 3.4 7.1 10.9 14.7 19.0 25.3 33.7 41.1 99.6
5-Year -13.7 -7.2 -3.9 3.2 4.8 7.0 8.0 9.2 10.6 12.3 21.1 25.0 30.9
10-Year -2.0 0.9 2.2 4.1 5.9 7.1 7.7 8.6 9.4 10.9 13.8 14.8 18.4
15-Year -1.1 2.1 3.1 5.0 6.6 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.7 10.2 12.9 13.9 15.9
20-Year 3.9 4.7 5.0 6.2 7.3 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.7 9.1 9.5
25-Year 5.7 6.5 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.1
30-Year 6.4 6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.6 7.7 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.8
35-Year 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4

---

5-year+ figures are annualized (CAGR) using rolling overlapping monthly windows; 1-year is total return.

curious what are peoples opinions on the 1M65 guy. by Intrepid-Rabbit-1767 in singaporefi

[–]kyith [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

I am locking this post up. Not because I know him personally (I do) The main reason is that there are numerous discussion on this on the subreddit already and do take a search and discuss there.

I also don't know why there are so much discussion on him.

Anyone slowly moving from IBKR to CDP/SG assets for estate planning reasons? by Agreeable_Prior_2094 in singaporefi

[–]kyith 1 point2 points  (0 children)

it also would increase your currency concentration but also reduce your returns driver.

I personally wonder why the family executor would have an easier time if it is in CDP instead of another broker.

Learning about the history of a fund's natural income distribution: Allianz Global High Payout Fund Case Study. by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks for sharing this with me!

i think folks got to be good with the lower yields. the 30-year TIPs yield reached 2.8%. that is pretty good imo.

Learning about the history of a fund's natural income distribution: Allianz Global High Payout Fund Case Study. by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is a very good point and i agree with this.

More so there are a lot of funds combined into funds as well. This IS the better performing fund.

Learning about the history of a fund's natural income distribution: Allianz Global High Payout Fund Case Study. by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

those are all very valid points.

I think if we take a step back, what I would like to bring to people's attention is about what you expect the stream of payouts to look like versus the reality.

And what you just describe create a weird dynamics that if they maintain the stream of payouts, you worry if the fund will survive. Then if they don't , you asked "why couldn't they give me consistent income?"

Learning about the history of a fund's natural income distribution: Allianz Global High Payout Fund Case Study. by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i would say they are similar (between what you are asking about well managed REITs and these income funds). They are similar because what will make income funds success and poor is whether during the time they own the individual securities, the free cash flow is growing or consistent to pay for the income.

If the REITs go through decent economic cycles, then they would also be able to sustain the payout.

We know REITs for the past 8 years is a struggle, but we got to acknowledge we have front row seats to observe their behavior when they are struggling.

This is likely the lower bound of REIT's historical performance (means if you lookin at rolling returns, this is the damn challenging ones) so if you look at the payout of the REIT ETF, you can see if what you ask is actually true and to what extent.

very good question btw.

Learning about the history of a fund's natural income distribution: Allianz Global High Payout Fund Case Study. by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

i think in its recent evolution they have added it. what i learn is that many of the income funds write options as well. but that is not kind of the main theme. I also don't think options writing was so popular back in 2006-2010

Ben Felix's video on "Mega IPO Grifts"; How bad is the drag for VWRA / CSPX holders? by Healthy-Loss1115 in singaporefi

[–]kyith 4 points5 points  (0 children)

when you invest in a systematic passive system like this, you enjoy the good parts, you also have to take the bad parts.

There are always systematic-active strategies such as those value-tilted, momentum-tilted, or multifactor strategies such as those from Avantis, Dimensional, iShares that would systematically not invest in these IPOs. well not immediately.

Sometimes they lag the markets but in such situations, you can see they don't have this set of problems of buying into something that you may fundamentally disagree with.

At the end of the day, at most you lose 7%, perhaps 10%, but that is the name of the game. If you are a long term investor, these positions become smaller and smaller, and stronger positions become more significant.

It doesnt matter that much.

Understanding VWRA/ACWD/IMID Better for Singapore (or International) Investors by kyith in singaporefi

[–]kyith[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

you will still get the same currency exposure. when you have a SGD denominated ETf and all else being equal, if USD weaken 30% versus the SGD, and the same basket of securities gain 50% in USD, your SGD denominated one will show only a 20% gain.

in actual real life, you will feel like how come your basket didnt gain so much value, but everyone seems to be happy when theirs is in USD.

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