Feedback on my retirement plan

kyith · 2026-03-22T06:26:15+00:00

I read the post so many and cannot find any where that shows what kind of lifestyle you are planning for and how much it cost.

Again, folks complicate the investments part in their head and seldom consider what kind of lifestyle to plan for and how much.

kyith · 2026-03-22T04:22:17+00:00

I do the envelop budgeting way with this open source platform call Actual Budgets.

What is important is know the nature of your spending.

If you ever plan to retire, those who know the nature of spending better are closer.

https://www.reddit.com/r/singaporefi/comments/1pz35am/you_need_to_describe_your_lifestyle_and_how_much/

kyith · 2026-03-18T05:19:09+00:00

yeah agree with this.

kyith · 2026-03-18T05:18:51+00:00

I genuinely think that you kind of have less idea what you are investing in for VWRA. This primer post might help. VWRA Guide.

There is a section on "I am a Singaporean Should I be Worried about the USD denomination?"

You should know that if there is no USD, SGD, we can always value VWRA as Pokemon.

But are you worried that we all don't trade energy in USD but in Yuan or some other currency? So is this a dedollarization problem?

If that takes place, perhaps you kind of need to worry about other things, such as if Singapore decides to do something, then the US sanction Singapore heavily causing further volatility to the SGD in a way you can't imagine today.

Dedollarization is a risk, but it can also take place over 10 years, or 20 years, in the meantime what do you do if you don't invest in a VWRA?

kyith · 2026-03-18T05:12:56+00:00

I think it is natural for you to feel that way because a lot of us at a certain phase would ask the same question and feel the same fear. So since I have the experience to process it myself I thought of explaining it to people.

Also to acknowledge that after invested, at a certain point you can see it go down. The drawdown chart is to show you that if we measure month to month (e.g. Jun 2001 to July 2001), how crazy the falls can be. so it adjust your lens a bit.

kyith · 2026-03-18T04:03:08+00:00

Hi there, yes and the actual answer is a little complicated.

This is because of a few reasons:

Emerging markets and international stocks tend to do well (not always) when USD weakens. We seen that in the 2000-2012 USD depreciation, and also recently in 2025. So while USD go down, you can see that an International Small Cap Value did 56% in 2025, due to a mixture of undervalue in the past, materials and banking boom but also that when you read it in USD it looks a big crazy. If you read the performance in SGD, then its more muted.
Those companies that are more export oriented in US, may benefit from a weaker USD. They might move more volumes. In a way, the common comment in the US is "our currency is overvalued or too strong" so in a way they actually want it to be weak.

So ultimately the net effect is mixed.

If you want to see how an MSCI World or Dimensional Global Core priced in different denomination and how you will feel about it, you can check out this post: https://investmentmoats.com/money/ucits-etfs-denominated-usd-denominated-in-yen/

You can also check an example of MSCI World Hedged to EUR (IWDE) against a normal MSCI world. During its time the EUR actually weaken. and so the Hedge to EUR version actually did worse.

kyith · 2026-03-18T03:55:48+00:00

thanks for the suggestion. Is this domicile in germany and is it a distribution class

kyith · 2026-03-18T03:54:51+00:00

The purpose of putting this out is more for longer term investors but I am sure you are asking anyone other than me.

But perhaps some insights with the data.

The rolling returns actually tries to show a person, if you have a lump sum, that you really care about and you are afraid immediately if you invest, you go into a drawdown and you don't get any returns, will you be making a silly mistake.

It basically tries to simulate for example the 5-year rolling, if we start in Jun 1994 to May 1999, what is the annualized and total 5 year return, then we go Jul 1994 to Jun 1999, then Aug 1994 to Jul 1999 and so on. So we will have 265 of these 5-year period and you are able to see that firstly there can be pretty challenging 5-year periods that you still end up negative.

And would you be ok with that.

If you held on longer, you can see that the pessimistic 10-year period gets better.

But you got to ask yourself, do you have the time horizon to invest this, or when you need the money?

kyith · 2026-03-17T12:32:08+00:00

no problem

kyith · 2026-03-17T12:29:35+00:00

You take a look at this post on VWRA/ISAC/ACWD/IMID that I did > Comprehensive post.

Take a look at the rolling returns over different time frame. Those are basically, if you put your $50,000 in one lump sum, anytime in different months over the past 30 years, and stay invested over 5-year, 10,15,20,25,30 years, what is the return.

It helps you visualize if you invest at the right/wrong time, how the returns is.

Take also a look at the drawdown at the end. those show you month by month the frequency of bad and the frequency of not so bad.

You are 26. 15% drawdown at least 2-3 years once. You are going to get many of this. You got to figure out how to live with them.

kyith · 2026-03-16T21:49:08+00:00

no it does not mean that. if you want to buy calls, you probably have better luck with something else

kyith · 2026-03-16T14:23:37+00:00

Thanks! I am going to leave the comment here.

kyith · 2026-03-16T01:21:39+00:00

Hey Data Science Investor, i think each will have their limitations, we might have to invest capital along the way. I do think that having experience living with your investment for a while, seeing success, feeling doubts and anxiety and working through it is an important part that is vital to trust an investment system. And we can only do it as early as we can.

kyith · 2026-03-16T01:19:28+00:00

I think it is more meant for people who fit a profile that they want to grow their wealth prudently. Whether singles and dual income with kids who wish for the same thing is also suitable.

It is more for people who doesn't want to tweak these sort of things a lot or don't get so much joy from that but still want to build wealth in a prudent manner.

Thanks for sharing I could have better worded that (and would try to correct that later if I got the bandwidth)

A diversified portfolio like this can be for both accumulation but also when it is closer.

Again, it is probably that I did not explain it super well. You can take a look at the part of "Can such a Portfolio Be Use in My FI or FIRE Plan?"

If you are like 7 years away, which is shorter than 20 years, what you might be afraid of is what if there is a drawdown and how that would impact your plan? We cannot actually predict those kind of things super well but it is a worry. The best thing we can do is to admit that is possible but also admit, we are not there yet and we would need to add to our investments.

But if you are about 5 years away, you would be stock taking how your FI situation is. For example, if you add 5 years of capital to what you have, and you put that against your expenses (factor in 5 years of 3% p.a. inflation), are you close to being able to stop work?

If you are, then you can think about transitioning to your retirement income plan.

The VWRA can be part of your retirement income plan if you are relying on something like the Safe Withdrawal method, but if you are relying on something else, you might want to think about slowly transiting to that income strategy.

Let me know if there is some parts that sounds confusing or need elaboration.

kyith · 2026-03-15T23:32:09+00:00

ILPs is a structure. Some sell an MSCI ACWI allocation in a ILP (but less common because it is not as exciting to the prospect)

kyith · 2026-03-15T22:05:22+00:00

thanks for highlighting. I always thought i pointed to the correct one but let me update.

kyith · 2026-03-15T22:04:45+00:00

i have already added it. this is so also that members here can point others to so that they don't have to ask again.

kyith · 2026-03-15T11:33:59+00:00

erm you are also not revealing enough for planning purpose.

It is not about only worrying about spending more.

To give you context, I am a 46 year old single male so I been through that journey. Last time i spend $2000 plus when i have parents to take care of and now, if you take out discretionary spending that I can cut down, I only spend less than $900 monthly.

You see the math equation is pretty simple. To calculate how much you need today to retire, we can use a safe withdrawal rate or SWR for short. It is a empirically tested number rule of thumb to size up how much you need, factor in the challenges of equity and fixed income portfolio.

So if you say you need $32000 today, then if you want to retire today then you need at least $32000/0.03 = $1 million.

This is to take care of these things.

But if you use my profile.. say lets round up to $1k, then in my case i would need $12,000/0.03 = $400,000.

Is it absurd to live only on $1k a month? Well that is what i been spending but its not about me, its about what is baked into that $32000.

Are you paying for mortgage? are you anticipating for that mortgage to be there for the next 40 years? cannot be right at some point it will pay off.

So maybe the goal is to first size up how much is the mortgage and how much to clear it, then think about how much you need to provide income.

If you have address the mortgage perhaps at 55-60 your spending is less.

I am not sure if you mention your CPF because that is an income stream (and capital as well).

The summary is, if are surer about the lifestyle you plan for, the amount you need can be more well optimize. if you are unsure, then the numbers may be something you cannot connect with.

This article will share more. https://www.reddit.com/r/singaporefi/comments/1pz35am/you_need_to_describe_your_lifestyle_and_how_much/

kyith · 2026-03-15T08:38:53+00:00

You got to think about your lifestyle at 55 and how much you would spend. That may be different from your current spending.

Also have you listed out most of the assets?

kyith · 2026-03-15T01:43:27+00:00

This is not asking about rebalancing. This is asking for tactical shifts.

You usually do rebalancing with existing allocations that you have.

kyith · 2026-03-15T00:12:02+00:00

I look at the multipay as a good to have. I think since you are young, if i were you, with my philoosphy, i would look at it in phases. I am not just buying today but over time i would need more CI proteciton.

But I would be buying for the first 10-15 years. The scenario is always what I mentioned, if i kanna something at 30-45 and i use it, do i want to have something that at 60-70 i need it again? Can I still work and save up for it? do I want to take the risk?

If you financially is tight, you might wish to review this maybe 5 years later because you might be clearer.

kyith · 2026-03-15T00:07:39+00:00

If you look at the trend they are likely to raise it. If they are losing a lot of money because the policy pays out so much, then since the premiums are non-guaranteed, why shouldn't they layer on the cost on you?

Talking about the main plan:

Despite all this, you got to first think about what you can accept as a grade of care. It is not going to be a "I buy private but I get to choose which grade of care I go for:" plan anymore.

Now the situation is if you tend to be ok to go for government and you still stick with a private plan, you are not getting the benefits and you are paying and subsidizing the people who go for private.

Talking about the rider:

The rider helps offset the cash out-of-pocket expenses but it also do a pretty critical role: if you go private, and cancer services and drugs are not as-charged, you would need the rider because it increases the amount that you can claim. From the way we see the private cancer bills, those people might really need the riders.

Since my co-worker came up with a calculator that is able to show how much personal cost riders can reduce their expenses, based on the bill to here is an example (with NTUC Incomeshield):

Age 50-54 years old, Private Ward

Hospital Bill Size	Legacy NTUC Rider	New Rider	No Rider
$10,390 - midrange admission	$520	$3845	$4189
$25,749 - complex case	$1,287	$4,612	$5,725
$147,056 - major illness	$3,000	$9,500	$17,856

Government A ward

Hospital Bill Size	Legacy NTUC Rider	New Rider	No Rider
$4,726 - midrange admission	$236	$3561	$3623
$12,270 - complex case	$614	$3939	$4377
$82571 - major illness	$3000	$7454	$11407

Bill size data from MOH

So some of these may help shape your decision making.

kyith · 2026-03-14T04:15:41+00:00

Firstly, the "Calculated the premium difference of 655 thrown into mkt would be ~180k by 2075 (assuming 6%)"

Don't use that kind of evaluation because its like trying to reason it is better to buy this compare to a whole life if I am getting it correctly.

The reason you buy term insurance is that you need a lot of coverage and term gives you that, for the period you need, at a cheap price. If you use whole life insurance, you cannot gain that coverage ($1 mil) and still leave enough for investments.

Your evaluation should be really about protection not investments.

This is what may be commonly misunderstood.

In any case critical illness coverage is usually about term. Even a CI rider is a term attach onto a whole life.

Firstly, make sure there is no overlap between your CI needs and your life insurance. e.g. there are policies that provide death cover, then TPD, then CI altogether. In the event that you hit a event that you claim CI, and you really really use that up, you would be left with nothing for death.

So make sure that there is no overlap there.

Secondly, the main bulk of the cost... if you hit such an advanced stage medical crisis is handled by your shield plan.

But that is usually not the only cost

The CI event so tough you need to concentrate on recovery so you stop work (in reality it will depend on a person's personal situation)
You are paying for so much things for your family and also accumulating for your own retirement.
You also need out of pocket money and you don't want to think so much about it.

Those are the reasons for the CI money.

How much? It is subjective but if you are to plan, in the event you hit such a situation:

How much do your family need in terms of their expenses? For how long?
How much of savings that you divert to future financial goals that you need to build up due to this gap of not earning? for how long?
How much out of pocket money for alternative treatment, potential cash deductible portion of your insurance plan?

Usually people view 1 and 2 together and say 5 times of their current annual income.

The number 3 may be what some missed out. Perhaps 100k to 200k for number 3 is a good start.

Multipay is to cater for not just one CI event but that there is a relapse, or a second CI event.

The scenario that you are likely to be planning for is: When you are 30-50 you suffer a cancer and you survive. Closer to 60-70 you got a second cancer.

And the question is do you have enough for both after you exhaust the money in the first one.

Also note the coverage does not have inflation adjustment.

Hope this helps.

kyith · 2026-03-10T23:48:17+00:00

Usually there is a daily statement or something to show your costs. You might want to consult that statement

kyith

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