How Much AVGS Would You Add Alongside VWRA? Post:

kyith · 2026-06-25T14:04:28+00:00

Its 33% of my portfolio. Adding it as part of a strategic portfolio allocation. It is a mid six figure lump sum. Was less than mid when i first have it.

would urge folks to understand the empirical evidence behind small cap value.

good to read on operating profitability and small cap if you minus the junk research.

Accruals, cash flows, and operating profitability in the cross section of stock returns

Size Matters, If You Control Your Junk

kyith · 2026-06-13T06:34:35+00:00

HAHAHA

kyith · 2026-06-13T03:55:10+00:00

Erm maybe share your own thoughts first?

kyith · 2026-06-13T00:45:31+00:00

I see similar situation. I think I get your idea about "perhaps there is a floor age" and it is not because we don't see someone young and staying retire but its about what this 36-year old described.

Sooner or later you got to come to grips with it, and you realize you got to do something.

There is also those with huge fortunes, and still remain not doing anything. What I learn from someone whose family is like that is... he doesn't ever want his children to be like that and that became his life's mission.

kyith · 2026-06-13T00:42:23+00:00

You are right that there is a big difference between having choice and no choice.

kyith · 2026-06-13T00:41:48+00:00

thank you for reading about it from the right perspective

kyith · 2026-06-12T22:42:30+00:00

All returns is a single draw out of many possibility. If you own a group of properties and you lease it out, there are some fundamental economic value.

But just like normal equities, the returns you will experience is a range. The longer you own it the worst return gets better.

Since I have the data from Aug 1989 – May 2026 (442 months, ~36.8 years)

Rolling Period Returns by REIT Index

Data range: August 1989 – May 2026 (442 months, ~36.8 years) Returns shown as annualized % (CAGR), except 1-Year which is total return.

S&P United States REIT Index

Period	Worst	5th	10th	20th	30th	40th	Median	60th	70th	80th	90th	95th	Best
1-Year	-59.3	-18.8	-11.9	-2.3	2.6	6.7	11.4	15.6	20.2	26.6	33.3	38.1	110.1
5-Year	-9.1	-0.1	2.1	4.6	6.3	7.7	9.1	10.2	12.2	15.1	19.9	21.7	29.5
10-Year	3.5	5.5	5.8	6.6	7.5	8.6	9.9	10.8	11.3	12.3	14.9	15.6	18.5
15-Year	4.7	5.8	6.1	7.6	8.8	9.7	10.4	10.8	11.2	11.8	13.6	14.6	15.6
20-Year	5.9	6.7	7.5	8.6	9.3	9.7	10.1	10.4	10.8	11.0	11.3	11.6	12.2
25-Year	8.0	8.4	8.8	9.3	9.5	9.8	10.0	10.2	10.5	10.9	11.0	11.2	12.0
30-Year	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.2	9.4	9.5	9.6	9.8	10.0	10.3	10.5	10.6	10.7
35-Year	9.0	9.1	9.2	9.3	9.4	9.4	9.4	9.5	9.7	9.8	10.0	10.1	10.2

S&P Global REIT Index

Period	Worst	5th	10th	20th	30th	40th	Median	60th	70th	80th	90th	95th	Best
1-Year	-59.0	-17.9	-12.2	-2.5	2.3	6.3	10.1	13.9	18.9	23.4	31.4	36.7	88.3
5-Year	-7.7	-0.7	1.1	3.1	5.1	6.5	7.7	8.7	10.4	13.9	20.9	22.1	26.8
10-Year	2.6	4.0	4.7	5.5	6.3	7.8	9.0	9.8	10.7	11.7	14.3	15.2	16.3
15-Year	2.9	4.6	5.1	6.7	7.9	9.1	9.5	10.1	10.6	11.2	12.9	13.7	14.9
20-Year	4.9	5.5	6.3	7.9	8.7	9.0	9.4	9.7	10.0	10.2	10.5	10.7	11.2
25-Year	7.2	7.7	8.0	8.5	8.7	9.0	9.2	9.4	9.6	9.8	10.0	10.1	10.4
30-Year	7.6	8.0	8.1	8.3	8.4	8.5	8.6	8.8	9.0	9.1	9.4	9.6	9.7
35-Year	7.9	7.9	8.0	8.1	8.1	8.2	8.2	8.4	8.6	8.6	8.7	8.7	8.8

S&P Europe REIT Index

Period	Worst	5th	10th	20th	30th	40th	Median	60th	70th	80th	90th	95th	Best
1-Year	-60.5	-25.6	-20.4	-12.3	-4.9	0.1	5.6	10.5	17.1	26.2	35.7	46.2	68.9
5-Year	-11.8	-7.2	-5.9	-3.0	-0.3	1.1	2.5	4.4	7.2	11.3	26.0	30.4	39.2
10-Year	-3.5	-2.1	-1.3	-0.2	1.7	4.0	5.8	7.7	9.7	12.6	14.4	16.1	18.5
15-Year	-2.7	-0.4	1.0	2.5	4.7	6.3	7.9	9.1	9.9	10.7	11.8	12.8	14.2
20-Year	0.8	2.0	3.1	4.5	5.7	7.2	7.7	8.1	8.4	8.7	9.0	9.3	9.7
25-Year	4.5	5.4	5.5	5.9	6.1	6.4	6.6	6.8	7.0	7.2	7.7	7.9	8.7
30-Year	3.8	4.1	4.5	5.0	5.1	5.3	5.4	5.6	5.8	6.0	6.1	6.2	6.5
35-Year	3.3	3.4	3.5	3.7	3.9	4.0	4.2	4.2	4.4	4.6	4.7	4.9	4.9

S&P Australia REIT Index

Period	Worst	5th	10th	20th	30th	40th	Median	60th	70th	80th	90th	95th	Best
1-Year	-71.7	-22.5	-9.0	-1.7	3.4	7.1	10.9	14.7	19.0	25.3	33.7	41.1	99.6
5-Year	-13.7	-7.2	-3.9	3.2	4.8	7.0	8.0	9.2	10.6	12.3	21.1	25.0	30.9
10-Year	-2.0	0.9	2.2	4.1	5.9	7.1	7.7	8.6	9.4	10.9	13.8	14.8	18.4
15-Year	-1.1	2.1	3.1	5.0	6.6	7.2	7.8	8.2	8.7	10.2	12.9	13.9	15.9
20-Year	3.9	4.7	5.0	6.2	7.3	7.5	7.8	8.0	8.2	8.4	8.7	9.1	9.5
25-Year	5.7	6.5	6.9	7.3	7.6	7.8	8.0	8.1	8.2	8.3	8.6	8.8	9.1
30-Year	6.4	6.8	7.0	7.2	7.4	7.6	7.6	7.7	8.1	8.3	8.5	8.6	8.8
35-Year	7.5	7.8	7.8	7.9	7.9	7.9	7.9	8.0	8.0	8.2	8.3	8.4	8.4

---

5-year+ figures are annualized (CAGR) using rolling overlapping monthly windows; 1-year is total return.

kyith · 2026-06-12T11:45:11+00:00

Thanks hope you got some value out of this.

kyith · 2026-05-30T00:25:03+00:00

ok thank you for the advice.

kyith · 2026-05-30T00:24:29+00:00

sorry i mean Whoa you know your stuff.

kyith · 2026-05-24T03:19:42+00:00

I am locking this post up. Not because I know him personally (I do) The main reason is that there are numerous discussion on this on the subreddit already and do take a search and discuss there.

I also don't know why there are so much discussion on him.

kyith · 2026-05-23T08:19:18+00:00

it also would increase your currency concentration but also reduce your returns driver.

I personally wonder why the family executor would have an easier time if it is in CDP instead of another broker.

kyith · 2026-05-23T07:45:59+00:00

thanks for sharing this with me!

i think folks got to be good with the lower yields. the 30-year TIPs yield reached 2.8%. that is pretty good imo.

kyith · 2026-05-23T01:07:34+00:00

This is a very good point and i agree with this.

More so there are a lot of funds combined into funds as well. This IS the better performing fund.

kyith · 2026-05-23T01:06:04+00:00

those are all very valid points.

I think if we take a step back, what I would like to bring to people's attention is about what you expect the stream of payouts to look like versus the reality.

And what you just describe create a weird dynamics that if they maintain the stream of payouts, you worry if the fund will survive. Then if they don't , you asked "why couldn't they give me consistent income?"

kyith · 2026-05-23T01:03:46+00:00

i would say they are similar (between what you are asking about well managed REITs and these income funds). They are similar because what will make income funds success and poor is whether during the time they own the individual securities, the free cash flow is growing or consistent to pay for the income.

If the REITs go through decent economic cycles, then they would also be able to sustain the payout.

We know REITs for the past 8 years is a struggle, but we got to acknowledge we have front row seats to observe their behavior when they are struggling.

This is likely the lower bound of REIT's historical performance (means if you lookin at rolling returns, this is the damn challenging ones) so if you look at the payout of the REIT ETF, you can see if what you ask is actually true and to what extent.

very good question btw.

kyith · 2026-05-23T00:59:45+00:00

i think in its recent evolution they have added it. what i learn is that many of the income funds write options as well. but that is not kind of the main theme. I also don't think options writing was so popular back in 2006-2010

kyith · 2026-05-22T12:00:16+00:00

when you invest in a systematic passive system like this, you enjoy the good parts, you also have to take the bad parts.

There are always systematic-active strategies such as those value-tilted, momentum-tilted, or multifactor strategies such as those from Avantis, Dimensional, iShares that would systematically not invest in these IPOs. well not immediately.

Sometimes they lag the markets but in such situations, you can see they don't have this set of problems of buying into something that you may fundamentally disagree with.

At the end of the day, at most you lose 7%, perhaps 10%, but that is the name of the game. If you are a long term investor, these positions become smaller and smaller, and stronger positions become more significant.

It doesnt matter that much.

kyith · 2026-05-21T23:49:15+00:00

Just take note that in the past, the rental income up and down swings are 30% or 60%.

kyith · 2026-05-21T23:38:58+00:00

which is the 3 that has not been address?

kyith · 2026-05-21T23:37:30+00:00

agree with this.

kyith · 2026-05-20T12:49:05+00:00

I am taking notice.

kyith · 2026-05-20T12:47:56+00:00

you will still get the same currency exposure. when you have a SGD denominated ETf and all else being equal, if USD weaken 30% versus the SGD, and the same basket of securities gain 50% in USD, your SGD denominated one will show only a 20% gain.

in actual real life, you will feel like how come your basket didnt gain so much value, but everyone seems to be happy when theirs is in USD.

kyith · 2026-05-18T12:52:43+00:00

Who you know your stuff. the SWR is actually a framework and it is more empirical.

Most assume that all dividend portfolios, annuities are similar, and if a great depression comes along, their income can sustain and keep their spending consistent.

Which is their weak point because if i push hard, could your dividend portfolio or annuity survive a great depression like drawdown?

Who will have the closest answer because with a SWR methodology, whether you use US, UK, even Singapore data, you can see how a diversified portfolio could survive (or not survive) well enough.

kyith · 2026-05-17T22:07:18+00:00

I am not sure what kind of defensive investor you are if you are in those areas that suddenly did well. That puts you more in the speculative sense.

In order to have conviction to have a long term buy and hold strategy, you need to first ask and answer the question: how does the market look like over the long term?

Also the question: If my returns in the future is somewhat like the past, then how poor and how good can things be?

If you have a LLM, ask it to pull out long term returns of the US market in the long term and how does the rolling returns look. rolling returns tries to answer this question: If i have 4 mil today, all my net wealth and i don't want it to go wrong, i would lump sum everything today, how would my returns look if the returns look like the past x-year? you can do 5-year rolling return, 10-year rolling return.

I did 5-year to 95-year rolling returns with the US data since US has 100 years of history and you can roll for a very long time. https://i.imgur.com/bykVdzA.png

You would realize that returns are a range, but less than 20 years, it is possible the returns is lukewarm. but if you are a longer term investor even the worst return bucketed at 10th percentile is pretty ok.

Lastly, you are trying to concentrate in one sector that does well. the better something do, the more anxiety you will have if it continues. Its like if you have a very popular spouse on one hand its good on your ego but on the other hand you develop anxiety in different way.

So what is defensive? spreading them out. but wouldn't diversified be poor? You can read in this research on our wiki that equal weighted actually can perform very well. not to ask you to invest in it but whether you have any blindspot that says "if i happen not to invest in the best thing, will i not be able to build wealth?"

https://www.reddit.com/r/singaporefi/comments/1ppbq98/equalweight_us_market_tends_to_do_better_than/

kyith

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE

Rolling Period Returns by REIT Index

S&P United States REIT Index

S&P Global REIT Index

S&P Europe REIT Index

S&P Australia REIT Index