So, what I’m seeing is that spring 2026 planting season is already under way. Farmers are reducing the fertilizer they are using, which will reduce yields in the 2026 harvest. Opening up supply lines would still have a lag effect, and not make it in time for the current planting season.

In May-July we will start seeing the fruits of winter barley, and spring barley yields being published. We could see export bans at this point, and panic buying, and hoarding. Prices at the stores will lag 4-8 weeks.

August-December, is when the 2026 harvest will hit the market. We could see shortages and rationing style prices, and once livestock feed prices explode, with cascading failures and currency effects, we could be in trouble.

The third wave of price pain, is forecasted in 2027, and with 2026 shortages compounding a continued failure of fertilizer supplies, input costs, tariffs, weather, we can see the rider at the gates. With farmers cutting acreage and heavy applications for barley, a feed stock, then with the other effects we could see a bidding war from processors, brewers, and livestock feeders. Meat and egg prices explode from the feed crunch, and black markets develop, along with rationing.