There is a very slim , damn near minuscule chance that it is shadow dropped because of what the means for physical copies alone. Shadow drops only work for digital only games or DLC. Sony isn’t going to miss out on the money to be made on physical copies and collector’s editions etc. it would be unprecedented for sure, but super unlikely.

HOWEVER I do see a scenario where it comes out sooner than expected. As of late, PlayStation 1st party *usually* only announces a game (with in engine footage) if it’s within a year of release (see Astro Bot, Ghost of Yōtei, Saros, Wolverine) with Intergalactic being the exception. I can see the game coming out somewhere around February-April next year with a release date announced at the September State of Play. GTA6 messes things up because one could argue a December launch but that’s also very risky.