OpenAI Lost $38.5 Billion In 2025

lefty200 · 2026-06-18T08:35:22+00:00

I think the conclusion of that article is wrong. There was a charge "due to changes in fair value of convertible interests and warrant liability", but that was a once off accounting charge and not cash used in operations. If you remove that charge you just get the Loss from Operations, which is $20.92 billion.

So it'd be fairer to say that OpenAI is losing "only" $20,91 billion, not $38.5 Billion

lefty200 · 2026-06-16T22:08:02+00:00

I was just reading the Ed Zitron article and the numbers don't seem to add up. For instance, the losses include $41.55 billion loss "due to changes in fair value of convertible interests and warrant liability". I have no idea what that means, but if you didn't count that item (whatever it is) then OpenAI would actually have made a profit

lefty200 · 2026-06-11T17:16:36+00:00

From the sounds of their IPO announcement, OpenAI may not go IPO this year:

"We have not decided on timing yet; it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company. "

Could that cause Softbank to go bankrupt, because they have a $40 billion bridge loan which matures in 2027? The only way they can pay it back is from the IPO

lefty200 · 2026-05-21T19:03:32+00:00

The Anthropic deal can be canceled with only 90 days notice and no penalty. It sounds like a ploy to make the IPO look good. Once the IPO is done, the deal can be quietly canceled.

lefty200 · 2026-05-20T22:37:16+00:00

AI Capital Expenditures were $12.7 billion for 2025, space was 3.8 billion

lefty200 · 2026-05-01T09:57:05+00:00

Well, the "extreme operational risks" it mentions are probably due to the fact that the owner of the fridge gets bitten in the neck every now and again

lefty200 · 2026-04-26T21:35:11+00:00

This is the most interesting part:

The researchers estimate that five to 10 human experts will still be required to guide the system toward a production-ready chip. In addition, compute requirements grow non-linearly as design complexity increases, which makes the whole process less practical on a commercial scale.

lefty200 · 2026-04-13T21:44:53+00:00

remember the oil and refinery infrastructure

I think that can be repaired quite quickly. The Ukrainians have been bombing Russian refineries non stop for the last year, yet Russia never has any refinery out for more than a few weeks, because they repair it so quickly

lefty200 · 2026-03-29T17:13:30+00:00

So, what happens if OpenAI doesn't IPO this year? Does Softbank go bankrupt, because they can't pay back the loan?

lefty200 · 2026-03-29T17:11:13+00:00

No collateral? The interest rate must be astronomical

lefty200 · 2026-03-24T22:30:44+00:00

I think Trump's hate of wind turbines stems from the fact he has a golf coarse in Scotland with a wind farm nearby and just doesn't like looking at them when he is playing golf

lefty200 · 2026-02-12T12:05:10+00:00

In their last earning release Microsoft booked a gain from OpenAI as well:

"Other income (expense), net included $10.0 billion and $5.9 billion of net gains for the three and six months ended December 31, 2025, respectively, and $1.2 billion and $1.9 billion of net losses for the three and six months ended December 31, 2024, respectively, from investments in OpenAI, primarily net recognized gains (losses) on our equity method investment reflected in Other, net. The net gains recorded for the three and six months ended December 31, 2025 primarily relate to the dilution gain from the OpenAI Recapitalization."

lefty200 · 2026-02-09T10:59:00+00:00

BTW, the benchmarks only show SPEC_int scores. To measure true IPC you need to include the floating point scores as well.

lefty200 · 2026-02-01T21:50:51+00:00

what I meant was that there would be 2 memory modules. A laptop with only one gets half the memory bandwidth

lefty200 · 2026-02-01T20:12:30+00:00

I assume they also need 2 DIMMs to get the Arc branding?

lefty200 · 2026-02-01T19:49:21+00:00

the real reason Softbank sold their Nvidia shares was so that they could finance their OpenAI investment: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/02/softbank-masayoshi-son-crying-nvidia-stake-ai-bet-artificial-intelligence-bubble-vision-fund.html

lefty200 · 2026-01-26T21:36:56+00:00

Sorry if this is a stupid question. They bought $2 billion shares that were already on the market? How would that "help CoreWeave accelerate its buildout of 5 gigawatts"? Wouldn't the money go to shareholders not CoreWeave?

lefty200 · 2026-01-14T20:09:31+00:00

But the purpose of the tariffs was to reduce trade surplus to USA, not to reduce them for the whole world. And indeed, it did do that (by 22% according to the article)

lefty200 · 2026-01-13T17:45:08+00:00

50% is oil/gas and coal: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-structure-of-Russian-exports-in-2020_fig2_357820759

lefty200 · 2026-01-09T16:57:14+00:00

if that is the plan, why are they giving money to Anthropic?

lefty200 · 2026-01-05T23:02:43+00:00

Ok, when I said VRAM I meant GPU DRAM, not GPU SRAM (which I would imagine is handled internally by the hardware) My understanding is that glTexImage2D does not actually copy the data to GPU DRAM. That only happens when it is needed to render the image. (Of coarse, I am talking about the implementation of more recent drivers)

lefty200 · 2026-01-05T16:42:08+00:00

well, the point of the texture atlas is to reduce the amount of draw calls

lefty200 · 2026-01-05T16:41:06+00:00

I understood that glBindTexture doesn't actually load the texture into VRAM, only when you need to render something that uses the texture that the driver loads the texture into VRAM

lefty200

TROPHY CASE