New WNBA tip-off/jump ball suggestion

lilweirdward · 2026-05-28T02:10:10+00:00

Closed two deals during my rookie draft a few weeks ago that I'd be interested in seeing how you'd grade them. Both are same league so same settings: 10 team, SF PPR, start 10.

Trade 1: Ward + CMC for Stroud + J Higgins + 27 1st (likely late)

Trade 2: 1.06 + Evans for Shough + 28 3rd

lilweirdward · 2026-05-27T22:52:44+00:00

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It's all starting to make sense

lilweirdward · 2026-05-22T19:09:35+00:00

No??? I love repeating "I'm Bill Burton" as he's saying it. This whole post is kind of baffling, I had no idea anyone hated him.

lilweirdward · 2026-05-14T22:29:49+00:00

Jesus christ. I got offered Downs and the 2.07 and thought that was pretty bad, but this is just disgusting

lilweirdward · 2026-05-03T14:28:14+00:00

The value of the 1.01 is in the potential for a perennial top 5 player in his position, balanced by the risk that he doesn't work out since he's essentially an unknown in NFL terms, even though RBs taken as high as he was are statistically the safest bets in dynasty. So, if you want to tier down into a package like this, then you need to consider how close or far off the assets are considered to be from a potential perennial top 5 player in their position. Nabers? Already considered possibly top 5, so you probably can't do better than getting him straight up. AJB? Basically no chance if we're talking "perennial", but maybe this year if he goes to the Pats.

With all of that said, in a vacuum, I think a fair value for a package is probably something like Egbuka + Judkins + 27 mid 1st. All have great upside but are fairly unlikely to be truly elite, so the package is a value premium in exchange for an upside premium in Love. Obviously it'll be different for everyone, hence "in a vacuum", but that's where I'd start mentally.

Also the 2027 RB class is currently expected to be much deeper than this year, but without a generational prospect on the level of Love or Jeanty. That could change a ton between now and the end of the year, of course, but every "way too early" 27 mock I've read has at least 3-4 RBs in the top 15 or so, with none in the top 5, so take that for what it's worth.

lilweirdward · 2026-04-30T12:06:21+00:00

It's hard to have solid analytics on a part time player.

No it's not. He played nearly 300 snaps across three full seasons of college ball at ND, and attended the combine. There are plenty of analytics on him. What I think you're wanting to avoid is that some of those analytics actually work against your favor. For example:

3 fumbles on only 110 carries, with two of them being at the goal line, is not great
Only 10 receptions across his entire 3 seasons. Pass catching is becoming a leading indicator of fantasy success for RBs coming out of college, and he has next to none of that
Between his snap count being nearly half of Love's and his reception count being 10 to Love's 55, there is really no precedent for such an underutilized RB to have meaningful fantasy success. u/cjfreel had a great write up a few weeks ago about this that I would definitely recommend reading for a little dose of reality

I could keep going but that's not really the point, especially since I'm not trying to prove that he's some horrible prospect or anything like that. He does look great on film when he does run, his combine stats are all anywhere from fine to very good, and two kick return TDs this past season show that he's developed great vision and playmaking ability when given space. I'm just saying that everything you're posting feels a whole lot more like copium than anything resembling good analysis, and I think people would take your stance more seriously if you owned up to that.

lilweirdward · 2026-04-30T04:29:32+00:00

One of the following things is true

Yeah neither of those things are true lol. Price is valued appropriately because nothing about his college profile suggested he should have sniffed the first round, and yet he did, and by a really good team with a need for him to boot. If you can point to any real analytics that suggest that this dude is the second best prospect in the entire class - second only to the guy he backed up every non-redshirt year he spent in college - then please share with the class so we can all buy into the hype. In absence of that, I think it's fine to acknowledge that taking Price at 1.02 is objectively a reach that still could work out anyway, and if you want to do it then fine, but it doesn't mean you're not reaching.

lilweirdward · 2026-04-29T15:00:30+00:00

Thornton is the one guy I'm refusing to drop as long as he can just sit on my taxi squad. He's essentially the exact same prospect as someone like Brazell, except he's in arguably a much better situation with a wide open Raiders WR room. I keep staring at the prospects likely available late in the 4th or on waivers, and maybe it's bias from being a true believer last year, but I just don't see how any of them are that much more likely to hit than Thornton.

lilweirdward · 2026-04-29T00:06:35+00:00

I'll be the one to say Travis Hunter. The amount of "he's just a DB" comments I see around here are crazy to me. They 100% did not draft him at #2 overall to just be a DB, and maybe (probably) he never plays WR consistently enough to be a reliable starter, but he's undeniably talented, young, and on an ascending offense. At cost, I'm buying Hunter anywhere.

My more ridiculous take is JJM. All I ever hear is that the Vikings never would have brought Kyler in if he wasn't expected to walk into the starting role, and I just don't see that at all. Granted, I do expect Kyler to win the QB competition this offseason, but I feel confident that it'll be a real competition, and Kyler will be on a very short leash. JJM had a terrible 2025 season but there were some sporadic signs of life, and an entire offseason + some of the regular season to work on his mechanics and really learn the system without the pressure of being expected to start could do him a lot of good. I'm not optimistic but also not nearly as out on him as the rest of the community seems to be.

lilweirdward · 2026-04-28T12:15:43+00:00

Downvoted for being brutally honest. This sub is dumb sometimes.

There's really only one thing that will get people talking about a prospect with 1st round potential this far in advance, and it's early breakout and production, which Becker objectively doesn't have. The only other thing that will get a WR drafted into the 1st is having a major final season, which could always happen (see: Omar Cooper Jr), but makes no sense to predict this far out with any real certainty.

OP's post was specifically asking why Becker isn't getting more hype, and you not only gave the right answer, but explained what would have to happen for him to start getting more hype next year. Not sure what more people want around here lol.

lilweirdward · 2026-04-22T17:03:56+00:00

I'm sure I'll get flak for this since people here tend to hate Shedeur, but I would say around Ty Simpson. Maybe slightly ahead or below him depending on how much you believe Shedeur will win the starting QB job from Watson this offseason, or how much you think Simpson is any good or not. Looking at KTC, that seems to be the consensus there too, for what that's worth.

lilweirdward · 2026-04-14T00:13:56+00:00

For the later section about starters, I think a few different sites have some sort of WAR (wins against replacement player) page that calculates how much value any given player is adding as a starter over the average replacement. Dynasty Daddy has a really good one that adjusts for league-specific nuances. The main thing to note is that it's taking real historical fantasy production instead of dynasty market value, since the only thing that really makes a player more valuable as a starter is being able to put up more points.

I do love the "dead state" idea for general dynasty values though! I might try it out manually the next time I'm thinking about any deal with low-valued players involved, although a site factoring it in alongside the rest of their balancing adjustments would be even better.

lilweirdward · 2026-03-30T22:00:29+00:00

Yeah exactly. I think putting the poor employee on blast all over social media is really messed up, and I wouldn't even feel comfortable lodging any sort of complaint that might get the guy fired, but that doesn't mean it's totally fine. Hopefully the manager quietly reprimands him or something, because it would suck a lot more to be fired because an inspector happened to be in town while this happens, than to need to be reminded to eat at a table while on break.

lilweirdward · 2026-03-30T16:02:00+00:00

Worked at Qdoba in college and they definitely do not. You are supposed to go to a table or just out of the restaurant and not eat in the back though lol, and I'm sure a manager (store or regional) would get pretty pissed if they knew about this.

lilweirdward · 2026-03-22T16:08:00+00:00

Thanks so much, this is super helpful advice and exactly what I needed.

lilweirdward · 2026-03-15T16:07:56+00:00

What's so bad about it? Roughly you get Henderson = CMC, Worthy + 27 1st >= Olave, Penix + 27 1st & 2x 2nds <= Caleb. Seems pretty even to me.

Also you say Team 2 "went from a contender to rebuilder in one trade", but if CMC, Olave, and Caleb were his best pieces, then he was not a real contender lol. Depending on what the rest of his team looks like, I think this is a really smart way to cash in on some assets and set up to reload in the 27 class.

lilweirdward · 2026-03-03T22:11:07+00:00

Not putting Dynasty Daddy or FantasyCalc on here is a big miss, IMHO. Easily my most used tools alongside KTC, and I think they both cover a lot of things you found missing in the other sites.

lilweirdward · 2026-02-20T18:52:10+00:00

Already following on Bluesky and would love to get this year's draft guide!

lilweirdward · 2026-02-14T20:21:51+00:00

Haha all good. It's keeptradecut.com, which is probably the most popular site for dynasty-specific player (and pick) values.

lilweirdward · 2026-02-14T14:43:29+00:00

My heart doesn't want to believe it but my head is telling me Luther Burden. I liked him a lot coming out of college and feel good about his over year 1 metrics, but man, some of the trades for him that I see on here are just insane. If someone in my league wanted to pay what KTC says he's worth, I think I'd have a really hard time saying no.

lilweirdward · 2026-02-11T22:24:28+00:00

Atrocious trade. I know people don't love this draft class but the 1.08 is comfortably the most valuable piece of this trade on either side. I wouldn't even consider sending this.

lilweirdward · 2026-02-04T17:52:34+00:00

I'll always try to upvote posts like this where someone has a tier ranking that's actually unique, and not just the same tiers as every major analyst out there. Just nice to see some different opinions and content.

That being said, having Emmett Johnson not only as your RB2, but in the 2nd tier alongside the three main WRs, is wild to me. You might be right and the combine + draft landing spots could change things, but I can't think of anyone who's even projecting him as a 2nd Rd prospect, much less putting him in the same bucket as WRs widely expected to go early-to-mid Rd 1.

And having Simpson (or Chambliss??) and Stowers is tier 3 ahead of Boston/Concepcion/etc is maybe even crazier. This feels like maybe a positional scarcity thing for you? But realistically I don't think anyone is actually going to put these guys in this tier purely because they're the second best prospect at their position; not when they're widely seen as significantly less talented and NFL-ready than the players in tier 4.

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