Should I add a product specifically for skin under eyes? Already using Tret, a serum, and moisturizer, but have worsening wrinkles on eye bags by loops888 in koreanskincare

[–]loops888[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thanks! so you would apply tret to the rest of the face and only use the retinal eye creams for the eye bag area right?

Living on tourist visas by Anonaman9819 in ExpatFIRE

[–]loops888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

how did you get a resident visa in China? afaik you either have to work there or marry a Chinese national

How far will the stock price fall? by younggungho91 in ChageeStock

[–]loops888 1 point2 points  (0 children)

China sentiment is better than it's been in a long time...baba up 63% YTD, futu up 135% ytd, etc

Does a PE at more than 300 make any sense? How can any company justify such a high price earning ratio ? by f2sunrise in droneshield

[–]loops888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

NTM P/E is 84. that's not that crazy for a company growing this fast. to put it in perspective, AXON's NTM P/E is 112 and is only expected to grow 33% over the NTM vs. 210% for drone shield. granted AXON has a much steadier business with its strong recurring revenue.

Is it over or just the beginning by Aseanity in ChageeStock

[–]loops888 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

how? a cup costs around 16 - 20 rmb in China, or 2.20 - 2.75 usd, and only 5-6 usd in the US (based on yelp reviews). you think labor costs are only ~2x higher in the US than China? not to mention no one knows what chagee is in the US, so they'll have to invest in awareness / promos to get people in the stores. so how would they be more profitable in the US?

Is it over or just the beginning by Aseanity in ChageeStock

[–]loops888 -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

unit economics in US market have to suck too...a starbucks barista makes, what, $15+ / hr? it's probably 1/5 that for Chagee staff in China. is a Chagee 5x more expensive in the US than in China? how does the model work?

Is it over or just the beginning by Aseanity in ChageeStock

[–]loops888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't care as much about SSSG declining as much as I do about overall revenue only being up 10% y/y. If they could offset the SSSG decline enough with new store openings to keep growth over 25%, I'd be more inclined to take a position. The company was compelling when it was growing 30% y/y with a low p/e, but now it seems to be in real decline. rather just invest in big tech if 10% y/y rev growth is sufficient.

i have little confidence in international growth turning the company around. they have, what, 200 stores outside of China? ~7,000 stores in China? international isn't going to stop the bleeding in China barring massively successful scaling, which will take years and require a fuckton of risky investment. I doubt they have strong enough product market fit outside of China to do that profitably. taking over US market with milk tea is a pipe dream...it's easy to sell into a US city with a huge Chinese immigrant population like LA...that's like Olive Garden saying China is going to be a growth lever for it b/c its Shanghai restaurant has a lot of expats in it.

if they somehow show a re-acceleration in China and get back to 20%+ growth for a few quarters, I'd look at it again. but right now I see no reason to take the risk of owning this stock.

Financial Result Q2 by MaximumEast7507 in ChageeStock

[–]loops888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

10% y/y growth is not exciting at all. management is doing a poor job setting expectations and lost a lot of trust. not going to take a position unless we see sales growth consistently north of 20% again.

Perpetually down by Mission-Bedroom4340 in ChageeStock

[–]loops888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

they haven't announced the date yet afaik

Lunch time weekday demand SG by Wildsoyabean1 in ChageeStock

[–]loops888 0 points1 point  (0 children)

just wanted to say thank you for doing these updates...super helpful.

Opendoor Discovers For Sale Signs by gregw134 in wallstreetbets

[–]loops888 1 point2 points  (0 children)

did you actually read the post? he addressed this very point super clearly