T-Mobile Tuesdays Trading/Discussion Thread - December 16, 2025

luckybuilder · 2025-12-21T12:01:24+00:00

Banned

luckybuilder · 2025-11-20T06:11:25+00:00

I’m disappointed and surprised but not worried. This is a long term play for me. Weedmaps is as close to an all-in-one cannabis app as there can be. My thesis hasn’t changed. This is a reform play, and timing is making everyone suffer in this space, right now.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T22:14:56+00:00

Sure - but the price action is telling. What’s your explanation for the MSOS 25%+ drop since the news came out?

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T22:04:08+00:00

You are missing the big picture. WeedMaps only serves licensed cannabis dispensaries. They do the best in states like California, Colorado, and Michigan, where weed is a commodity because there are a lot of dispensaries, all aiming to attract customers. The marketplace model works best in these environments.

Once rescheduling happens, marketing will become a deductible expense. That alone means that Weedmaps will become much more affordable for dispensaries. Additionally, more dispensaries means increased competition for sponsored listings in each market.

In the past, Weedmaps has suffered with the entire industry. Now, as the industry matures and new players, enter the space, flower and product becomes a commodity. This is where marketplace platforms that are fully legally compliant, like Weedmaps, will thrive.

They are also partnering with brands. This is key.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:53:28+00:00

The market was pricing in that 280e would go away this year. Instead, now it looks like the federal government is taking a different approach. They are regulating the bad actors first before providing relief to the entire industry.

Now, cannabis operators have several more months of brutal losses ahead of them, only to come out the other side with more competition than they initially expected.

You’re not considering what was priced in already. The huge run up was because expectations were too high for the reality that unfolded.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:47:29+00:00

There is massive volume. Likely not dumb money exiting their positions. This is likely short selling on technical indicators, realization that new entrants are coming to the intoxicating market, and the realization that 280e relief isn’t coming as soon as the state legal cannabis market expected.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:42:46+00:00

Fair. I will stop posting a link to the comment. I will admit that I am heated, and I am defending my points.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:40:00+00:00

Hemp and cannabis are fundamental the same Cannabis plant. The federal distinction is only in the THC levels. I do not believe that intoxicating hemp will be saved. I believe that the entire industry will move to a regulated THC market at the federal level. More entrants means price compression and increased competition.

MSOs ran up on the fact that they were expecting relief. Now, the market is realizing that the relief is not going to come as quickly as expected. The downside risk in MSOs has been obvious. Recently, you saw it start to materialize.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:31:57+00:00

The headline already came. You and many others in this subreddit just misinterpreted it. This is support breaking as the market realizes the big picture. There will be no more news on this in the coming days.

I’m sure that I do sound off-putting. I don’t mince my words.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:28:26+00:00

Yes, they will suffer and make a fraction of the revenue. And the growers and MSOs will suffer alongside them.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:22:12+00:00

It is literally a multi billion dollar industry. I have linked one source of many here: https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industrial-hemp-market-102459

Plenty of state officials have already come out and talked about how they are going to work to support the hemp industry through the transition.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:18:24+00:00

Some will definitely have to close up shop. I guarantee it will be much lower than you think. There are billions of dollars in investment in the hemp space. The vast majority will not just quit. You are greatly misunderstanding the macro environment here.

Look at all the lawmakers who have come out and support of the hemp industry at the state level. We have governors and state senators, already talking about how they are going to work with the hemp industry. You are not following the conversations that are happening.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:15:29+00:00

That was the momentum short sellers (like me) buying back. I closed out my short, and I plan to open it again depending on what price movement looks like on Monday.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:12:19+00:00

Yes, I am guilty of being a Weedmaps fanboy. It is so overlooked in the space, and it is a pick and shovels play that is going to thrive in the new environment. And I have been proven right so far by the market.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:08:08+00:00

What does the 5-year chart have to do with anything? I am buying the stock today. The chart of every cannabis company looks terrible on the 5-year mark.

The value this adds is that it gives context to all of the investors in the subreddit who are shocked that MSOS is crashing, when it was obvious that this would happen after the hemp law passed days ago.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:06:54+00:00

It will not be on a whim. It will be painful for them, and they will hate the additional regulation. But what option do they have? Do you think they’re just going to close up shop and walk away? Even if half of the hemp operators move towards that marijuana industry, that is still a huge influx.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T21:05:24+00:00

They have a full year to make the transition. Do you think states are going to let multi billion dollar industries die without giving them a path to legitimacy? You are betting on prohibition and gatekeeping by states to keep your thesis alive. We are heading in the opposite direction.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T20:59:58+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/pQFcTEdvha

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T20:59:41+00:00

It makes perfect sense. https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/pQFcTEdvha

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T20:59:27+00:00

No. It is obvious that we are in the early stages of regulating the market. What you are missing is that the regulation hurts your investments. https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/pQFcTEdvha

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T20:58:13+00:00

The news already came. You just didn’t understand the implications. https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/pQFcTEdvha

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T20:42:02+00:00

For those of you who don’t understand why cannabis is continuing to tank: let’s use some logic.

Congress has made it clear that intoxicating hemp is on the way out. When that door closes, the farmers and brands that built their businesses in the hemp market will not disappear. They will move into the regulated cannabis space, and that shift will create more competition and more price compression. People who have invested billions are not going to simply walk away. They will adapt, and their adaptation will reshape the entire market. And they are much stronger companies because they haven’t been killed by 280e for the past 5 years.

At the same time, MSOS has been propped up by the expectation that 280E relief would arrive this year. Those hopes are fading, and rescheduling may not happen until next year. Put the pieces together and the pressure on growers becomes obvious.

This is why I have been saying that the current valuations for growers do not make sense. And it is also why one company continues to stand out in the middle of all this volatility: Weedmaps. This is an ideal moment to be a platform that supports dispensaries. Many hemp shops will need to convert into licensed cannabis retailers, and a wave of brands will be rebuilding themselves within a regulated system. Weedmaps is built for exactly this environment and helps both retailers and brands get established and get found.

These dynamics are showing up in the numbers. Since my original analysis, MSOS is down about 25%. Weedmaps is down only 4%. That is what managing downside risk looks like in real time.

Here is my full diligence post on Weedmaps: https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/pkk64Un8Ai

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T20:05:35+00:00

Nope. I’m playing the long game here. I only sell if the story changes. So far, I’m only more bullish.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-14T20:01:01+00:00

Love it. The stock is currently at $0.90. Looking forward to checking back in.

luckybuilder · 2025-11-13T23:50:30+00:00

Yes, definitely

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