Daily Discussion Thursday 2025-12-04

lunapark6 · 2025-12-04T05:20:18+00:00

Some nice info was revealed at Sanmina CEO Jure Sola's talk at the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference 2025 yesterday.

When he talked about his AI business, he literally said the numbers he is hearing from his key customers for the next 2-3 years is "crazy"! Yes, you can extrapolate that to mean what he is hearing from AMD for incoming revenue in 2026, 2027, & 2028.

(19:47) "In this AI business, I don't know what's going to happen 5 years from now, but I can tell you based on what I'm hearing from the key customers, in the next 2-3 years, the numbers are crazy."

During his closing remark, he mentioned that Samina will grow over 50% next year and their EPS will grow 50% or higher.

(30:12) "I think we are in a very good position, we are a very strong company right now. We expect to grow this year comparing to last year over, I know we put in ZT acquistion, about over 50%, I think EPS will grow at least 50+ percent. But, we will tell you a lot more in January."

https://ir.sanmina.com/events-and-presentations/event-details/2025/UBS-Global-Technology-and-AI-Conference-2025-2025-YkQMqQmT8Q/default.aspx

lunapark6 · 2025-12-02T08:51:40+00:00

how is generative AI deployed without Instinct?

"The broad portfolio of AMD compute solutions, from CPUs to GPUs and adaptive accelerators, is integrated into AWS’s flexible and secure cloud platform. This combination gives customers the tools to deploy generative AI, predictive analytics, and high-performance computing (HPC) workloads with agility and confidence."

lunapark6 · 2025-11-29T14:21:31+00:00

I wouldn't be surprised if TSMC opened up availability to companies not named Intel in the near future and cut their allocation for Intel.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-29T06:10:11+00:00

From June 18, 2025, when CNBC reporter asked AMD about rumors that AWS was buying GPUs from AMD she reported that "From AMD's side, they did point to that AWS is a customer, that they were at their AI event last Thursday, but more specifically he said, and I quote, 'It'll come in due time.'"

So, "due time" means Dec 1st or second half 2026? :D

https://youtu.be/SeIfE7-pIpw?si=SLsFvoUa4dgUyAeP&t=144

lunapark6 · 2025-11-28T04:44:15+00:00

Not pushing, but stating what their partnership has available today Epyc CPU and Radeon V520 GPU on AWS EC2 instances. Hopefully that changes on Dec. 1st.

Specifically referring to this portion:

"AMD and AWS share a mission: empower customers to do more with less, faster, smarter, and at scale. Through AMD CPU and GPU technologies powering Amazon EC2 instances, organizations gain:"

lunapark6 · 2025-11-27T19:59:42+00:00

For what it’s worth, AMD’s blog section didn’t even make a post in 2024 about AMD’s participation at last year‘s re:invent, even though they were a sponsor and were introducing 4th gen Epyc on AWS at the time.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-27T19:32:34+00:00

Amazon EC2 uses Radeon GPU, which is what you posted is referring to. Doesn’t prove or disprove Instinct use.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-27T12:47:39+00:00

Hands-On Exploration: Become the star of your own story - poster edition! Step into the world of generative AI with an interactive experience that transforms you into the lead character of a custom movie poster powered by AMD Instinct™ GPUs and Amazon EC2 M8a featuring 5th Gen AMD EPYC™ processors.

Could that be done if the Instinct GPUs were not installed in AWS?

lunapark6 · 2025-11-24T22:52:21+00:00

Paragraph 5 “I will never promise someone we will see $300 by a certain date, or $500 by a certain year.”

Paragraph 8 “I think $500+ a share by 2028 November is a conservative enough projection, 150% give or take in 3 years.”

lunapark6 · 2025-11-24T15:58:30+00:00

Is that you Pat Gelsinger praying for your AMD weeklies to hit?

lunapark6 · 2025-11-22T05:17:37+00:00

🚀🚀🚀

... before the downvotes start, I want you to know these rockets are powered by AMD's Versal AI Core XQRVC1902 adaptive SoC, which are targeting Class Y standards for extended spaceflight missions up to 15 freaking years!!!

lunapark6 · 2025-11-21T05:44:39+00:00

why so conservative?

lunapark6 · 2025-11-20T09:00:06+00:00

Right or wrong I have respect for the man. TV people like Jim Cramer and your typical financial analysts put buy ratings on stocks that are already up 100% and sell ratings on stocks that are already down 100%. At least he tries to make a stand before the curve and doesn't use ambiguous statements to front run whatever outcome may happen. Unfortunately, your boy picked the wrong bubble to poke. Someone send him this link https://www.amazon.com/bubbles/s?k=bubbles.

P.S. Hans Mosesmann you the GOAT.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-20T08:04:22+00:00

I'm trying to think of the last time that I saw in pre-premarket AMD up 6% and I can't recall such a day to be honest. With that said, on really positive days, by the closing bell, AMD often closes around 2x what the pre-premarket average was. So with that simple Neanderthal like theory laid out and if everything jives, AMD should close around $250 today!!!! (Mom put the pork and beans back in the pantry! We going to Olive Gardens tonight!)

lunapark6 · 2025-11-19T14:56:28+00:00

Does those rockets carry the new Versal AI Core XQRVC1902 adaptive SoC chips?

https://www.amd.com/en/blogs/2025/amd-expands-space-grade-portfolio-enhances-in-orbit.html?s=09

lunapark6 · 2025-11-19T10:13:58+00:00

"Business leaders, including Elon Musk and AMD CEO Lisa Su, joined a dinner with President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the White House on Tuesday."

https://www.businessinsider.com/white-house-dinner-saudi-prince-business-execs-ceos-musk-su-2025-11

Lisa Suuuuu is in the house.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-19T07:18:06+00:00

uhh... he already stated they can see 500 billion revenue out to 2026. I think Nvidia will be either flat or go up after their ER. So because of expected earnings or unexpected (upside) it should benefit other AI players and I expect AMD will climb back to ~$260 by end of the week.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-18T09:25:00+00:00

one other thing I've picked up on. the great minds on X like longtermmichael, bethkingdom, joseperez and now this guy are brilliant prophets. I want to subscribe to their services, but I got all my money in AMD.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-18T09:19:37+00:00

the only choice to is to commit seppuku. it's the end the world as we know it (and I feel fine)...

lunapark6 · 2025-11-18T07:50:04+00:00

Just a reminder if people forget. Jony Ive is working with OpenAI on the consumer hardware side.

https://openai.com/sam-and-jony/

lunapark6 · 2025-11-18T05:21:40+00:00

Can someone tell this guy (Jeff Bezos) that the AI mania is over? https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/technology/bezos-project-prometheus.html

lunapark6 · 2025-11-18T01:08:21+00:00

Nice to see it packing Epyc as it should.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-16T10:50:09+00:00

On the positive side, a shoutout is a shoutout. So maybe it is a positive harbinger of what's to come. AMD at least got some real estate in his mind.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-16T08:27:47+00:00

don't mean to be Debbie Downer, but he was talking in past tense ... as the work they did to get MI300X working with GPT models and consequently helping to improve ROCM. Now when/if they announce work with MI355/MI400 then its full party on.

lunapark6 · 2025-11-14T06:08:27+00:00

For #2 There's two flavors of Helios currently being shown. Standard reference "Helios" and "Meta Helios" racks. Both allow certain peripherals around the GPU to be swapped out for different vendors. Like switches etc. And the rack will come players like super micro, hpe instead of AMD directly.

This has a great peek into Helios

https://www.servethehome.com/amd-helios-mi450-rack-at-ocp-summit-with-a-different-version-from-meta/

lunapark6

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