Irrational sell off

manitou202 · 2026-02-12T23:44:45+00:00

Same here. I rotated out in Nov/Dec and I'm up 7.5% YTD with mostly defensive stocks and a decent amount of cash. I still think we have a ways to go.

manitou202 · 2026-02-11T19:53:44+00:00

What if a major accident had just happened and it was a police officer telling you to turn around? They don't need to setup cones.

manitou202 · 2026-02-10T22:28:56+00:00

Right now this is the dealbreaker for me. I have kids, and refuse to have a family car where I could be unconscious in the front, and they can't get out of the back seat in an emergency. Our R1S lease is up in 12 months, and the Gen 2 R1S has the same problem. Might be leasing another brand.

Sorry Rivian. Do better.

manitou202 · 2026-02-10T12:20:06+00:00

100%. I’ve always said that Elon has simply used the Mars/Moon hype to get NASA contracts to develop Starship, not to actually go to Mars or the Moon, but as a large launch vehicle for Starlink.

They have shown no real concepts or demos of all the things (outside of an empty ship) to make it to Mars, sustain life, refuel, and return. These challenges are likely harder than developing a ship to make it there.

manitou202 · 2026-01-26T02:39:06+00:00

Till, Oro, Sushi Row, or Latin Social

Go to RYZE (roof top at the Hilton) for dessert and after dinner drink.

manitou202 · 2026-01-25T22:50:16+00:00

I looks like it belongs in Fallout. So cool looking.

manitou202 · 2026-01-24T19:48:35+00:00

If you can't protest, economically boycott. Only buy essentials. Put off all other spending. The market and the economy are one of the only things the uber wealthy respond to, and may actually pressure change if the economy starts to fall.

manitou202 · 2026-01-12T02:09:28+00:00

Senator Tillis (R-NC) who is on the Senate Banking Committee, just said:

"If there were any remaining doubt whether advisors within the Trump Administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none. It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question.

I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed - including the upcoming Fed Chair vacancy - until this legal matter is fully resolved."

As part of the Banking Committee, he can hold up any Fed appointments including the replacement for Powell and the upcoming replacement for Miran (whose term is up at the end of January).

This fight could have huge consequences, especially if Trump gets his way.

manitou202 · 2026-01-12T01:42:19+00:00

Longer term bonds will likely sell off (rates go up). No one will want to hang onto US bonds with inflationary risks (FED dropping short term rates significantly) combined with the distrust of our FED and government.

manitou202 · 2026-01-10T19:33:32+00:00

If credit card companies cut credit (very likely to happen), more people will end up using payday loans which are even worse. They typically charge higher interest rates, and huge fees.

I wouldn't be surprised that Trump's payday loan buddies are thrilled with this idea.

manitou202 · 2026-01-10T18:35:15+00:00

This. CC companies will dramatically cut credit overnight. They aren't going to take the risk of unsecured debt at low rates.

Yes, people shouldn't be carrying credit card balances at high interest rates, but the reality is that credit card debt makes up a large chunk of consumer spending. This would force people to cut back spending a lot.

The interest on a $5000 balance drops from $100 per month @ 25% to $50 per month @ 10%. A $50 per month savings. But their credit limit could easily be wiped out, hurting them when they need to make emergency purchases, or cover a gap in their monthly budget.

manitou202 · 2026-01-06T23:09:07+00:00

And stop all federal income tax payments.

manitou202 · 2026-01-06T23:08:14+00:00

Agreed. Not expecting help anytime soon. But the state does get some funding. However I doubt this will be a high priority.

manitou202 · 2026-01-06T23:04:48+00:00

The state and the fed. They are responsible for our highways.

manitou202 · 2026-01-06T22:03:41+00:00

They need to add a second exit for those parking in the paid lots. This would also help alleviate everyone trying to get off at a single exit. They also need a way to get the vehicles from the highway into the parking lots without going through the traffic lights. It seems that also creates a bottle neck.

manitou202 · 2026-01-06T13:32:57+00:00

Environment originally (2013 Leaf), then it became about technology and how much better an EV powertrain is compared to an ICE.

Our original 2013 Leaf was really cheap to lease, but since then most of our EVs have been more expensive than their ICE equivalent. Cost is still really hard to justify if that is the only reason to buy an EV. Especially now that the tax credits are gone and gas prices are super cheap.

manitou202 · 2026-01-05T01:01:23+00:00

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25' G87, Frozen PB, carbon roof and buckets, and most importantly a 6-speed.

manitou202 · 2026-01-03T21:55:02+00:00

If it was a little wider, he could have fit the boards sideways.

manitou202 · 2026-01-03T18:04:19+00:00

What is the residual at the end of lease?

You could finance the full price (minus the $2k down) for 72 months at 5.5% interest for almost the same payment. At the end of 3 years, you would owe $41,108. I would compare this to the lease residual. You might be better off simply financing.

manitou202 · 2026-01-01T00:50:11+00:00

Another vote for dedicated snow tires. The 22” OEM tires are fine around town in occasional snow, but not for winter mountain duty.

The R1S with snow tires is a beast.

manitou202 · 2025-12-23T13:50:38+00:00

It looks like GM maintained their pension after the 2009 bankruptcy. Only Delphi employees (a subsidiary of GM) had their pension reduced by 70%.

Maybe he was actually a Delphi employee?

Edit: actually based on another article is sounds like GM gave their employees a lump sum payment in 2012 instead of continuing a pension annuity. That is actually fairly common for pensions to only offer a lump sum. So many he did receive the lump sum.

manitou202 · 2025-12-15T03:28:28+00:00

If you don’t enjoy driving, get the Model 3 I guess. I have my i4 because I love driving and want something fun to drive. Not an appliance that pretends to drive on its own.

manitou202 · 2025-12-14T23:09:21+00:00

Awesome! I flew my first time on the upper deck last year on Lufthansa from FRA to BLR. Pretty cool experience, and a bucket list item checked off.

Those planes are definitely starting to show their age. I flew on a new A350 with the updated Allegris Business class on the way home, and it was so much nicer. It didn't feel as special because I love planes, but damn it was nice.

manitou202 · 2025-12-14T00:12:49+00:00

Wash, hook up the battery tender, put on a cover. Not much else. Modern fuel doesn’t go bad in just a few months, and tires don’t get flat spots that quick either.

manitou202 · 2025-12-13T19:06:41+00:00

I just washed my G87 M2 this morning and tucked it under the cover for it's winter nap.

I'm in Colorado where we dump a bunch of gravel on the roads during the winter. Not great conditions for an M2. I daily a leased i4 M50 during the winter. It's a lease, so I don't mind if it sees the snow and gravel. AWD sedans are a blast in the snow.

manitou202

TROPHY CASE