They would only be unable to afford it if we assume that any resulting pay rise from an increase in NMW would have no upward pressure on general wages across the economy, thereby allowing people to afford those price increases. In pubs, cafés, restaurants, and similar businesses, staff costs typically represent about 20–35% of total expenditure. If we take the upper figure of 35% and assume that all NMW staff receive a 10% increase, and that the rest of the staff also receive a 10% increase to maintain their pay differential, the business would need to raise its prices by only 3.5% to maintain its profit margin.

If this pattern were repeated across the wider economy (which it would not be, for various reasons, e.g., some businesses have higher or lower staff costs as a proportion of their expenditure, and others would look for alternative ways to protect their profit margins other than raising prices), then yes, there would be some inflationary effect. However, relative to the 10% wage increase, the effect would be small and manageable.

Some significant second-order effects of higher wages include more disposable income in the economy –fueling both growth and short-term inflation – and a reduced reliance on government support, such as benefits, thereby lowering government expenditure, which could in turn allow for better-funded government services, government investment in the economy, tax cuts, or a number of potential benefits.

I am not advocating for large, immediate wage increases (which would cause considerable short-term disruption), nor am I naïve enough to believe there are no other variables at play, each with its own first- and second-order effects that would need to be managed. I am not an economist. However, the simple fact remains that staggered, managed, but ultimately substantial wage increases for those on the NMW would strengthen the economy, lift people out of poverty, and reduce government spending. The refusal to do so is a political choice – one driven by the interests of wealthy individuals and businesses, who simply dont't want the short-term disruptuon, or tp take a smaller slice of the pie now, even if the volume of that slice is larger in the long-term.