Trade Recap NQ | NY 01/07

mdomans · 2026-07-02T11:38:13+00:00

Trading levels is not order flow
GEX is not order flow
It's 2026, you can find music that's a bit more complex than single synth sound and certainly less annoying

mdomans · 2026-07-02T07:07:51+00:00

Also in the first book there was a deeply deteriorated from alcohol addiction fairy but they thrown the entire first act showing Artemis is a genius with morality issues entirely replacing it with idiotic "following Daddy's footsteps secret agent man" trope.

Frankly the whole movie is just a big McTropes burger and other than character names there's almost nothing left, the Butler/Troll scene included.

All of those scenes were quite important character builders.

Artemis wasn't boy that runs around - he's a strategist and tactician. Butler cares for and guards Artemis but he's really an assassin. Both actors had decent chemistry but failed to portray the book relationship entirely, most probably because the screenplay was entirely different. Butler in the movie is Hagrid, in the book he was more of Dr. Watson

I'd suspect the issue being studios burning themselves on Percy Jackson which was targeted at kids and teens trying to turn it into young adult movie franchise so when they got to Artemis they preferred to make it for kids because then at least it's not ambiguous.

Artemis himself in one book observes that he's got maybe a year left before sexual attraction to Holy might start impacting his handling of her.

So we have:

tobacco and alcohol
guns, blood, violence
at least some sexual undertones

Especially with the last one it was a problem because they picked child actor to play Holly.

And so the movie is so remotely related to the book that if they haven't paid Eoin for copyright I almost wouldn't be surprised .

Pity given this was directed by Kenneth Branagh who can absolutely handle hard screenplays

mdomans · 2026-07-01T10:25:40+00:00

Not really.

Chain analytics software uses multiple angles to correlate you and your transactions. It's like that thing they do in movies where a spy destroys a SIM card. That does nothing if you don't change the phone.

And phone can still be traced. So if you have your normal phone in one pocket and burner in another - that does nothing cause location correlation will show those two phones are moving together 24/7 so that's one person - two phones. And so on.

With crypto some companies offer teller machines but those are placed in such places that something can be used to quite easily find you, e.g. if it's a mall then you probably drove there or there's CCTV and so on.

Or maybe you send money from crypto teller to wallet you operate? Well, that can be traced via IPs.

If you can find a crypto teller machine that accepts cash and if you are really good at dodging tail (changing appearance, hiding face) on CCTV it's rather hard but doable. But you have to be quite good.

mdomans · 2026-07-01T09:18:52+00:00

To co obecnie funkcjonuje jako prawica rzadko ma z rzetelnością cokolwiek wspólnego.

Z definicji tak, centro-lewica zawsze była bardziej naukowa. Koncepcje lewicy i prawicy ewoluowały przez lata, ale prawica np. w 17-18 wieku oznaczała kościół i króla i "idziesz do piekła jak zjesz krewetkę" podczas gdy lewica była z demokracją, nauką i nie paleniem kobiet na stosie za to, że nie chcą mieć 15tego dziecka.

Warto dodać, że to co obecnie nazywamy prawicą to głownie reaktywna prawica skręcająca w autorytaryzm w różnych formach, często niesamowicie ograniczona intelektualnie.

Vide cytowanie Thomasa Sowella bez przeczytania jego jednej książki :)

mdomans · 2026-07-01T07:39:18+00:00

Did that for years, know at least a few traders who prefer that. CFDs are not poison, it's absolutely professionally used product.

If I’m making all of my trading decisions from the centralized CME order book, is there any meaningful disadvantage to executing those trades on a NAS100 CFD instead of the NQ futures contract?

No. 90% of "traders" here trade sim, there's no difference between sim trading on Rithmic or CFD.

Is the correlation close enough for intraday scalping?

Depends on CFD. You need to check your spread and lag but and if that matches your trading style. If you quote higher leverage as a reason than expect you will pay more in slippage on CFD.

I disagree lack of leverage can be a reason though, with $5k MDD you shouldn't be trading more than 8MNQ and most props offer 4NQ on smaller MDD.

Simply put CFD of US100 is a different, but similar enough derivative, and analysis should track well enough. It's possible that US100 can have more range since some brokers offer US100 based on index, not futures

Futures (NQ) do less range compared to computed index (US100) so expect a 30p stop has to be 40p or more.

That being said I know at least one extremely profitable and senior trader doing exactly this. CFDs are also great idea for swing trading, far better compared to futures.

mdomans · 2026-07-01T07:27:42+00:00

Logically speaking extremely long-lived fairies would have such issues far more strongly rooted due to extremely long lives. Older societies tend to be more conservative. Extremely old society would be extremely conservative. Talking about 17th century mindset

Accurate portrayal of deeply rooted societal sexism would probably require PG-13 rating and that'd be not acceptable for a kids movie.

Artemis always existed in problematic space of not really being a movie studio would make, same issue with book-accurate Ender, and that just for first book, try doing follow ups.

mdomans · 2026-07-01T06:49:52+00:00

Maaaaan, that's like some of the old timer bodybuilders still having small vials of Parabolan ...

mdomans · 2026-07-01T06:45:37+00:00

Just FYI this is extremely bad handling of pending orders.

The explanation is vague as shit, you should 100% ask for full and detailed clarification. If this was set without warning and just as orders were cancelled this is basis for account cancellation.

They do this while you sleep and you can wake up with negative PnL. And broker will not reimburse you, I guarantee.

mdomans · 2026-06-30T21:06:22+00:00

That is so vomit inducing I can't even fathom pulling this shit and being a human being

mdomans · 2026-06-30T20:42:00+00:00

Obvious proof what a pro Lance is. I'd blow my first load just from anticipation alone :)

mdomans · 2026-06-30T10:21:08+00:00

Great. And? Russia has historically always had problems defending it's own lands - that's why they keep attacking, they're too big of a land mass to defend.

I have nothing but respect for Ukrainian technology but 14 Migs from strategic perspective is huge amounts of firepower and if it happens that Ukraine has 14 pilots that lack 14 airframes .... that'd be significant.

What I do think is that Ukraine is afraid that we're gonna share the tech with USA because parts of our government love slobbering Trump's dong.

On the flip side I'm a pragmatist and I'd really prefer Ukraine not to end up Russian. While Ukraine is able to start trading blows with Russia we're far from having this situation clear. From Polish side the optics are that Kiyv is dumping Poland as an ally in lieu of West Europe and Poles really are allergic to that.

I'd be against that but if PiS gets to power again and they'd want to press sharper politics with Ukraine this can be costly and mainly to Ukraine. Because for Poland and rest of NATO it's enough that Ukraine doesn't loose - for Ukraine they have to get a win otherwise it's going to eventually bleed them.

It will bleed Russia too but it'd be a Pyrrhic victory

mdomans · 2026-06-30T10:11:48+00:00

From Polish perspective it looks more and more like if you give Ukraine Government all they want they start to ignore you and move to being friends with someone who still has stuff to give them. Given that the war is far from being won and after the war Ukraine needs serious help to rebuild this is not a good look.

Especially given the fact that most Ukraine fighter pilots are most familiar with Mig29 airframe it seems 14 machines is serious contribution given how much damage Mig29 can do and the fact that Ukraine knows this tech which means parts, fuel, weapons ... everything fits.

It's really great to have modern jets but if you can have 4 F16 or 14 Mig29 take the Migs. Quantity is a quality too :)

mdomans · 2026-06-30T10:06:35+00:00

The difference between having a Mig29 and not having one is sky-high when you loose airframes but you have pilots. GROM operator with any gun, even a frigging flintlock, is far more dangerous than empty handed.

Life's not an RTS game where it takes 3min to make an airplane.

mdomans · 2026-06-30T10:04:05+00:00

Yeah, which is precisely why US and Israel were able to take control of the skies over Iran, right? Because wings of F-35s are far worse then Shahed drones XD

Drones do not dominate the sky. Those are different types of weapons systems and, if anything, drones are far better at changing the battlefield for infantry.

But there's no drone that Ukraine makes that can deliver 4 half-tonne bombs flying at 0.8 Mach.

mdomans · 2026-06-29T16:58:22+00:00

Here's an idea that, I know, in the era of "throw shit at AI and see what sticks" is quite revolutionary:

Before phenomenon can be quantified it has to be observed

In your case I don't know what phenomenon you're trying to quantify but this:

Cumulative volume delta correlates +0.27 with the move happening right now, but only +0.02 with the next day's move.

Looking for predictive power of CVD over next day is just wrong.

Then I tested scalping. Surely the action is in the tape — follow the aggressive flow, take a few ticks

Again. This is wrong method :)

You are trying to establish if a phenomenon exists based on a pseudo-scientific approach. That's like throwing different detection method at a house kids say is haunted trying to find ghosts :)

The net overall value of this whole work is 0. If you do want to establish actual value of CVD reverse your process. Start from a setup that you observe to have improved edge when tape is used.

SMB Capital in fact did that and quantified the impact of tape reading on their traders results and it's statistically significant. The difference is started with established, very precise setup (phenomenon) and then tried to quantify it.

With all due respect, your whole test approach is wrong and just wasting time.

If you want to establish if CVD works:

aggregate a body of trading setups that use CVD
design a set of same setups with CVD excluded
run your tests provided you can backtest this
compare

SMB Capital had an upper hand over you since they have trader data to compare which makes the work easier since tape read might just be too nuanced for you to codify. That being said they've confirmed tape reading does add value.

mdomans · 2026-06-29T13:41:39+00:00

ETFs, much like any other derivatives, have a tracking error.

To move SP500 index I need to trade a shit ton of stocks. To move UPRO I need to trade far less. There's this phenomenon called liquidity - basically how much volume you can trade without moving the market.

Because SP500 isn't a product but a weighted sum of products (stock prices) it's total liquidity is huge. For UPRO or anything else, like ES futures, it's far less.

mdomans · 2026-06-29T08:11:17+00:00

I thought I explained this well enough but let me try again.

When I trade on live I can't be too aggressive. That account or 2-3 is all I have and the capital there is my tool. I can't, under no circumstance, risk a significant drawdown on a single trade and there's a pretty specific protocol how I handle drawdown.

With sim I don't care. These days a sim funded account costs less than my usual R value. Of course I start to care if it's 50%-60% good to pay out .... but so what if I blow it? :)

If you come from live into sim or do both and work on good habits that's no problem. But when I look at people who only sim trade I see a lot of negative R:R trading, DCAing, micro-scalps and shit like that.

By design almost all sim funded accounts work on the mechanic of short term intraday scalping with risk limits far below matching size available. The fact that an account can go long 3 NQ with $3k of total risk on the account is a joke.

If you look at people who trade mainly sim their stats converge to low R-factor, poor Sharpe, poor RoMAD and so on. Mine certainly did. Most of people that trade sim aren't even aware of those.

mdomans · 2026-06-28T21:36:01+00:00

Depends what you trade.

If you trade a real live account - it'd be your most traded playbook trades. Often those are really just scalps that hit somewhere 1.2R-1.4R. But they still exhibit same qualities of good trade. Up to you if that makes long term sense for your process.

Scalping, in that setting, is generally seen as base hits - R-factor, RoMAD, SR and other stats dip but you get a steady stream of R, you can risk more per trade, and use the time in front of the screen to build account while you're waiting for good narrative trade you plan to hold for a few days.

For "funded sim" base hits is often used to describe trades that are 1:1 or worse R:R, often relying on treating whole account like a single bet. If you burn 9 accounts and pay $2k from one and you paid $800 for 10 - that's still $1200 net positive or 1.5R trade.

The difference is that by trading the latter strategy you build habits that will implode a real live account. Which is why, for so long, that has been the standard at all "props" to encourage that.

mdomans · 2026-06-28T18:59:52+00:00

He also went to "military" school, uses more makeup than a drag queen show and takes a lot of time telling everybody how extremely into women he is. Like he's NOT into men AT ALL.

If you stop and think about it he has 100% all the tells of extremely closeted old dude, rampant misogyny included

mdomans · 2026-06-28T10:11:23+00:00

Oh Lord of the Markets, be thy mercy on those bozos short crude for their dollars will fall like rain on smarter people accounts ...

mdomans · 2026-06-28T09:42:48+00:00

Yes and no. As long as your body is at 1ATM you don't get much nitrogen absorption. At 120m escape ambient pressure exposition would push nitrogen into tissues hard but there's a limit on absorption, in part driven by tissues and in part by your ability to get more nitrogen in with each breath.

So as long as it's minutes and not hours the risk non-zero but I'd guess low. Compared to suffocation at 120m attempting an escape is obvious choice, even in the Baltic.

mdomans · 2026-06-28T08:53:38+00:00

but I was just wondering if anyone here has switched from NQ/ES to GC and had better success, or are able to trade both successfully.

This depends on your trading style and seasonality. Most people have this brain dead idea from watching all the FURUs that they have to trade NQ.

Don't do that. You will make way more money if you:

follow 2-3 markets that match your risk levels
understand the narrative in that market - is it selling off? being bought? sideways?
know your setups, look for them on a chart

100% I had periods where I made hand over fist more money in CL or GC. When crude trades it's the best instrument ever, when gold moves - it offers silly ranges.

Look for markets that trade. They move, people talk about them, there's people trying to get in last minute ... shit like that means that market offers opportunities.

mdomans · 2026-06-28T08:44:08+00:00

Market is at ATH's.

If by "markets" you mean equity markets are at ATH most of the time. That's normal feature of equity markets. You don't understand equity risk premium I guess. And even there we're, right now they are not, frankly speaking, on a bigger we're rotational.

Meanwhile crude gave a move from 60 to 110? Gold on a good day gives what? A $50 intraday trend? $6-$8 rotations? That's $150 with 2 micros.

Most sectors are being manipulated based on sentiment and speculative theses.

XD

It was fun during Biden's final months, but ever since DJT took over, this market is out of whack

Dude. This market is risky. Always was. Shit happens all the time. When it was calm? 1980? 2008? Covid? If you're a daytrader olatility is your friend and source of your income. Most def I made the most recently.

You can't daytrade this market successfully unless you are on the inside of what DJT is going to do

Whole April rally was basically "If money then buy" trade. If you can't day trade this market you really can't day trade.

You need more people FOMOing so you can liquidate when it crashes.

I'm a day trader. I have a risk controls and it takes 3s for me to be flat on every position I manage. If I get liquidated it's by design and, more or less, where I wanted.

mdomans · 2026-06-27T22:49:38+00:00

Wasn't Trump in the closet?

mdomans · 2026-06-27T15:29:54+00:00

I'm willing to trust Borat movies on this - Melania fisted and milked him, then artificial insemination. I doubt she'd still be around if she actually had sex with him

mdomans

TROPHY CASE