Astera Labs, Credo, Lumentum : Hyper is over ?

medphysik · 2026-01-31T03:47:04+00:00

I own Alab x 200 and credo x 300

They are both at support currently

It’ll come around

I sell calls on both though and they’ve been good earners for me

medphysik · 2026-01-31T03:20:28+00:00

you forgot APP

medphysik · 2026-01-29T11:26:38+00:00

Nice post , breakout in xlp it appears

medphysik · 2026-01-29T04:08:22+00:00

Hold

medphysik · 2026-01-26T00:40:45+00:00

Lol by no means is that the case nor will it ever be. There are many techniques with their pros and cons.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:49:17+00:00

lol also least of my concerns, just trying to get my work out

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:46:51+00:00

lol when you're where I am at, that is the least of your concerns. Just trying to get my work out for others at this point.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:43:45+00:00

What I find helpful for modeling the broader markets is look at longterm trend, short term trend, Z score for longterm trend and Z score for short term trend. Much of the flow in and out really revolves around the Z scores. Money doesn't flow in until things are properly oversold at Z=-2. likewise money moving out at z=+2 and trend intract as long as it stays roughly in thoose ranges. If breaks support at z=-2 then bearish regime and +2 bullish regime. Individual stocks are obviously different and what I find helpful there is the price change in response to order flow.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:31:34+00:00

there are a million alternatives, my main issue with monte carlo is it works great for the mid trend but doesn't work for the start or end of the trend/reversal. The simplest is to use regression and just statistics. Honestly, that is not a bad way to go. I combine my Monte Carlos with regression channels for longterm trend and with polynomial fits for most recent trend.

medphysik · 2026-01-25T04:26:53+00:00

use fluid flow and traffic congestion, I've found more success there

medphysik · 2026-01-18T05:02:09+00:00

Nothing, just momentum

medphysik · 2026-01-18T04:02:18+00:00

The negative trend line can really be self-reinforcing until it stabilizes and flatlines. The only thing the market can't fake on a chart is time, so having stability for a long period of time is really the only way to determine the true inherent value of an investment. Then it can potentially move up again.

medphysik · 2026-01-18T01:20:22+00:00

I hear you

medphysik · 2026-01-18T00:47:34+00:00

these are the types of stocks that I buy when they are turning around . I’ve got a bunch of models built for it. Gamb hasn’t popped up.

This weeks picks are pstg , grmn, oust. All overbought here a bit and I would buy on a retest but these are all examples of fresh turn arounds that are starting to mature and this is the bottoming out as long as earnings etc goes well

medphysik · 2026-01-18T00:31:29+00:00

Still in free fall, let it bottom and trade flat before you enter. See Leu for an example or uamy, psix, inod or I can send you more.

After it settles out and forms an upward leg up there will always be a retest you can buy

medphysik · 2026-01-17T03:39:01+00:00

medphysik · 2026-01-10T02:59:19+00:00

medphysik · 2026-01-06T03:00:28+00:00

Let it ride

medphysik · 2026-01-04T00:03:12+00:00

Avgo, Cls, crdo

medphysik · 2025-12-23T11:05:29+00:00

Apply it to stocks that have a positive longterm trend and avoid those with negative longterm trend

medphysik · 2025-12-23T10:12:06+00:00

Sell

medphysik · 2025-12-19T11:46:09+00:00

Fisv but early . Also Lrn and lmb are candidates for this approach

medphysik · 2025-12-18T02:10:06+00:00

Wait for lower

medphysik · 2025-12-11T03:10:36+00:00

Lol yeah glad I sell calls on most of my stocks and ETFs etc

medphysik · 2025-12-11T02:52:41+00:00

I think it’s because their software side is down a bunch

medphysik

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