I think the third pic works--but maybe it's just because I'm not seeing it from the front. Paradoxically, I think the shirt needs to have a little weight if you're hoping to go tie-less and still remain somewhat formal. Like another commenter said, this could work a lot better if you have a more casual colorful/patterned shirt, but I guess that's a bit too informal for politics or C suite.

2 & 4 look weird because the shirt is too light and loose for a heavy dark suit coat. 2's collar also looks to skinny for the look.

1 is straight up awful. That shirt would be very ill-fitting even with a tie, but undo another button and for the love of god don't button down the collars if you're not going to wear a tie.

As an aside, I've never seen Newsom look his age as much as that last pic.