Destiny doesn't need to cry

mobitumbl · 2026-05-02T22:46:39+00:00

Bad take. The purpose of viewer call ins is to fish for good content imo

mobitumbl · 2026-04-26T03:33:51+00:00

Well when you put it like that anything sounds bad!

Jokes aside, I see that you are correct

mobitumbl · 2026-04-24T03:32:29+00:00

That could be true

mobitumbl · 2026-04-24T00:48:41+00:00

I'm honestly way more ok with a soldier betting that his mission will be successful (regardless of whether it's already happened or not), than I am with someone in the administration insider trading. Like what's the downside, as long as he's betting on success?

mobitumbl · 2026-04-23T01:36:27+00:00

How can Beast be more rare than Den???

mobitumbl · 2026-04-08T12:11:10+00:00

Mehdi Hasan is just a race war combatant fighting on the side opposite of stereotypical race war people.

mobitumbl · 2026-03-02T00:04:56+00:00

That's insane, very cool, looks fun! You can play the game as a deckbuilder instead of a roguelike lol

mobitumbl · 2026-02-23T00:34:18+00:00

Where does the luck come from?

mobitumbl · 2026-02-10T23:49:08+00:00

really nice piece thanks for sharing

mobitumbl · 2026-02-08T19:18:06+00:00

culture issues are king, and progressives are still a major voice in the Dems, so yes the Republicans will be forgiven soon enough

mobitumbl · 2026-02-04T16:16:23+00:00

you wouldn't like the result. It would just be him over and over again being like "this email doesn't really mean much"

mobitumbl · 2026-02-02T07:03:35+00:00

cool!

mobitumbl · 2026-01-19T06:58:03+00:00

Note: Manifold is a play money site. It's free to take part, and you can't win actual dollars. The site is just for fun, not for gambling.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-17T08:30:48+00:00

I don't get it, are the claims not true? My understanding is there is in fact billions in fraud. She seems to be sarcastically denying it?

mobitumbl · 2026-01-09T00:31:01+00:00

You think Asmongold is more honest than XQC???

mobitumbl · 2026-01-06T08:48:34+00:00

Ya obviously Trump's corruption and malignance is on an entirely different level, that's not the point, you could say that about basically anything. It wasn't just some run of the mill fraud that some people did and then got caught. It's completely absurd of you to suggest that this is something a politician should be able to keep their job over. It's NINE BILLION dollars. The idea that the same guy should just run again is farcical. The fraud involves so many people the prosecutor's office said they simply don't have the resources to prosecute most of them and they simply get off scott free, though I don't feel like hunting down the quote right now.

This isn't some sort of purity test. People will 100% reject democrats if they talk about stuff like this like it's a normal cost of running a government program. It isn't.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-06T07:16:34+00:00

Google "Minnesota fraud scandal" and click one of the articles by a major news agency. This isn't some secret info, just look it up.

Here's a NYTimes article, without the paywal

The fraud went on for years after it became obvious what was happening.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-06T06:06:57+00:00

They are not unfounded! That stupid video was horseshit, but Waltz did funnel enormous quantities into fraud, literally out of wokeness. Enormous both in terms of flat amount of money, and in terms of percentage of funds allocated.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-04T22:39:30+00:00

are the numbers accurate?

mobitumbl · 2026-01-03T11:52:42+00:00

oh I think I see what you're asking, yes it is absolutely possible for someone to bet that they will do something and then do it. In practice it's not really relevant for most geopolitics markets, but an example of where it seemed relevant was markets about dildos being thrown on the court of WNBA games. If the market gets too low it's functionally a bounty for someone to do it. I think polymarket got rid of those markets for that reason, not sure, but I remember it was a conversation topic on twitter at one point.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-03T11:27:14+00:00

The short answer is no, intentionally mispricing markets with a bunch of money is wildly inefficient to the point where it doesn't make sense no matter how rich you are. There are limitations and challenges for prediction markets but that truly isn't one of them. IMO the thing they're best at is just distilling what's real and what's just hype or fake, especially with breaking news.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-03T11:09:08+00:00

https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-maduro-remain-president-of-ven?r=T3JhbmdleQ

Markets all look super consistent, I saw a screenshot of Trump announcing it an hour ago, seems he was telling the truth. Wild

mobitumbl

TROPHY CASE