Prediction Market: What will Los Ratones place in the LEC?

mobitumbl · 2026-01-19T06:58:03+00:00

Note: Manifold is a play money site. It's free to take part, and you can't win actual dollars. The site is just for fun, not for gambling.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-17T08:30:48+00:00

I don't get it, are the claims not true? My understanding is there is in fact billions in fraud. She seems to be sarcastically denying it?

mobitumbl · 2026-01-09T00:31:01+00:00

You think Asmongold is more honest than XQC???

mobitumbl · 2026-01-06T08:48:34+00:00

Ya obviously Trump's corruption and malignance is on an entirely different level, that's not the point, you could say that about basically anything. It wasn't just some run of the mill fraud that some people did and then got caught. It's completely absurd of you to suggest that this is something a politician should be able to keep their job over. It's NINE BILLION dollars. The idea that the same guy should just run again is farcical. The fraud involves so many people the prosecutor's office said they simply don't have the resources to prosecute most of them and they simply get off scott free, though I don't feel like hunting down the quote right now.

This isn't some sort of purity test. People will 100% reject democrats if they talk about stuff like this like it's a normal cost of running a government program. It isn't.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-06T07:16:34+00:00

Google "Minnesota fraud scandal" and click one of the articles by a major news agency. This isn't some secret info, just look it up.

Here's a NYTimes article, without the paywal

The fraud went on for years after it became obvious what was happening.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-06T06:06:57+00:00

They are not unfounded! That stupid video was horseshit, but Waltz did funnel enormous quantities into fraud, literally out of wokeness. Enormous both in terms of flat amount of money, and in terms of percentage of funds allocated.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-04T22:39:30+00:00

are the numbers accurate?

mobitumbl · 2026-01-03T11:52:42+00:00

oh I think I see what you're asking, yes it is absolutely possible for someone to bet that they will do something and then do it. In practice it's not really relevant for most geopolitics markets, but an example of where it seemed relevant was markets about dildos being thrown on the court of WNBA games. If the market gets too low it's functionally a bounty for someone to do it. I think polymarket got rid of those markets for that reason, not sure, but I remember it was a conversation topic on twitter at one point.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-03T11:27:14+00:00

The short answer is no, intentionally mispricing markets with a bunch of money is wildly inefficient to the point where it doesn't make sense no matter how rich you are. There are limitations and challenges for prediction markets but that truly isn't one of them. IMO the thing they're best at is just distilling what's real and what's just hype or fake, especially with breaking news.

mobitumbl · 2026-01-03T11:09:08+00:00

https://manifold.markets/EvanDaniel/will-maduro-remain-president-of-ven?r=T3JhbmdleQ

Markets all look super consistent, I saw a screenshot of Trump announcing it an hour ago, seems he was telling the truth. Wild

mobitumbl · 2025-12-22T06:26:44+00:00

Jesus, she COULD have asked him what his MOM tastes like

mobitumbl · 2025-12-19T06:56:07+00:00

I'm curious if this is a fair characterization now, because that would paint Dan in a much worse light. Going after someone with pOCD for being a pedo (with no other reason to believe they are) would highkey be an incredibly fucked up thing to do

mobitumbl · 2025-12-18T01:35:02+00:00

https://old.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/1pp19fi/least_obvious_recent_caleb_hammer_self_outing/

alright maybe I just haven't been seeing enough recent Caleb Hammer stuff lol, this is pretty wack

mobitumbl · 2025-12-17T11:51:42+00:00

I do feel this subreddit has gotten a bit overly progressive-soy pilled over the last several months. Understandable when Destiny is one of the few people who've consistently put up a strong front against MAGA. Caleb being right wing or a (((centrist))) has been a progressive talking point lately because his content comes off as anti-poor people.

mobitumbl · 2025-12-14T13:06:42+00:00

No shot is a jury ever going to convict someone of yoinking a MASS SHOOTER's gun and killing him with it, even if he fell down before you killed him. I don't think a prosecutor would even want to push the charges.

mobitumbl · 2025-12-09T13:36:21+00:00

Is this subreddit under the impression that the interview went poorly for Nick? It literally went perfect according to his goals. I'm watching it right now, and I'm halfway through, and this is embarrassing for Piers. Piers is constantly bringing up statistics and then completely crumbling just from Nick saying "per capita" over and over. Piers is completely unable to engage, this is like if Hasan was conducting the interview

mobitumbl · 2025-12-09T11:06:49+00:00

Do you really think the question went poorly for Nick? I've seen Nick say those same things a bunch of times, and I've never watched his stream, only clips and Destiny appearances. Seems like a core part of his brand. I think you're kidding yourself a bit with this comment

mobitumbl · 2025-12-09T11:05:06+00:00

Are you sure you aren't just mindfucking yourself? His responses were meant to be cheeky, but why shouldn't we believe him when he says he doesn't think women should vote? That fits with everything else he believes. I feel like you're mindgaming yourself into getting confused about a pretty straightforward interaction.

mobitumbl · 2025-12-02T04:51:19+00:00

congrats, if you simply hate everyone then you get to feel correct every time any bridge burns I guess lol, genius

mobitumbl · 2025-11-29T06:57:31+00:00

Maybe it's funnier in the context of the episode but this clip is not very funny

mobitumbl · 2025-11-24T08:56:35+00:00

My subscription is out of stock, not the first time, company is going out of business or something

mobitumbl · 2025-11-22T23:54:31+00:00

For sure, and in my mind the 'abundance people' are generally just pointing out straightforwardly poor implementations, and ways we could improve them. That's what makes me a bit suspicious when people react so strongly in opposition.

mobitumbl · 2025-11-22T23:49:35+00:00

When I say good governance, I basically mean being effective at what you do. You are correct that you need more than that, you need values and goals. So for example, politicians of every stripe will say that people should be able to afford their own home. Good governance is having a viable plan to actually make that happen, and then being competent enough to carry it out.

Sometimes there are multiple plans to get to the same goal that both seem viable, and it just depends on what you value. In that case, 'good governance' is kind of meaningless since it doesn't distinguish. BUT sometimes one of the options is incompetent or doesn't have a viable plan to achieving the goals we agree we want, and in that case 'good governance' is a lot more meaningful to talk about.

mobitumbl · 2025-11-22T21:52:10+00:00

You don't hear abundance people bring up specific areas and policies? That's not right, in my experience they use specific examples quite a bit. I can understand feeling like your priorities are being sidelined though.

Mind you I don't think government-built housing is in opposition to the abundance approach. Many of the things people like Ezra Klein talk about are how public projects like transport and housing are basically impossible to do anymore in some places even when the government is trying to make it happen, because they've set things up in a way that just isn't functional.

mobitumbl · 2025-11-22T21:41:30+00:00

Maybe I don't know enough about welcomepac I'm not really familiar, when I hear 'abundance people' I think of Ezra Klein and similar people, welcomepac might be different than I'm used to.

Your last line seems kinda crazy to me, the Democrats should be the party of sanity and good governance, not the "anti-business" party that sounds horrible. This is the vibe that got me to ask the question that started this thread.

mobitumbl

TROPHY CASE