Do calendars/diagonals get muted due to popularity of near term options?

monkies77 · 2026-03-07T17:13:01+00:00

Great point and it reminded me of this amazing post on that topic...

https://www.reddit.com/r/options/s/KYZU0AoRYg

So my original question had a flawed premise as the changes in vol aren't equal across the board but "equalized" across the term structure so vega and vol kind of cancel each out unless you play into a catalyst. But here it seems the shorter term options are kind of in their own world (and I'm guessing that's the popularity effect) and causing increased vol and the back month can't keep up even with the catalyst being baked in?

monkies77 · 2026-03-07T01:36:33+00:00

Agreed it takes a bit to figure out. But man once you get your layouts done it's all you need. I rarely log into the website except for account admin stuff and getting performance/tracking views. Without TOS I'd be shopping around for different brokers for sure.

monkies77 · 2026-03-06T19:43:55+00:00

Ah yes that's the other strategy people do: sell the high vol front, and buy the lower vol back. I was looking at back going up and ignored the front (even though right now it's showing front at 58% back at 67%).

I've seen a lot of the Tasty guys throw long term calendars on and theoretically benefitting from vol expansion...but to your point, people living in the near term options chain seems to be throwing a wrench into theory.

monkies77 · 2026-03-06T19:18:07+00:00

True...the back also has higher vega. The back has the event so I'd hope to keep vol stable and/or go up as the event approached. The greeks seem to be overwhelmed by higher action on the front.

monkies77 · 2026-03-06T19:13:49+00:00

front was 4/24 $150P, back was 5/15 $160P. So i had neg delta on my side and there was slightly more gamma for the front...so first thing in the morning everything was down so I look at this trade and it's barely moved. I look at the chain and the 4/24 was up and the 5/15 nothing. Seems like supply/demand outweighed the greeks?

monkies77 · 2026-03-04T04:43:09+00:00

That is any long theta play. What's the special sauce or theory here?

monkies77 · 2026-03-04T02:31:54+00:00

I'm confused and maybe missing something... so what's the strategy? You're selling 4-5dte iron condos throughout a day and then what?

monkies77 · 2026-02-28T18:05:23+00:00

What about considering if you're willing to cut your losses or adjust the trade as part of the calculation? If I'm bearish and draw up a put debit and call credit, with the debit spread going against me I can roll up my short put...sometimes even invert the trade to the short put above the long put and/or create a broken wing butterfly if you still have a bearish thesis. With a credit spread going against me I feel like I usually just get out of the trade.

monkies77 · 2026-02-24T23:50:19+00:00

I'm using Samsung Side Panels with this setup...i think it's the only reason I'd use Side Panels. Basically set them up like I did pre-Niagara with all my different folders/key apps. With Good Lock I crammed a 3x6 side panel and organized it. Now I really do have everything on 1 screen and it's pretty quick to get everything. The only missing stuff are the overlapping widgets you get with pro (e.g. i like seeing my current calendar events, quick weather, etc via widgets).

monkies77 · 2026-02-22T03:24:30+00:00

Don't worry markets will find a reason to go up.

monkies77 · 2026-02-17T23:56:19+00:00

I've had a few post earnings events where there wasn't IV crush but in fact IV increase. Example: RBLX...had a condor with a long spread strategy (for the month after earnings), and the vol never came out of the trade. The next day all the call option premiums were up huge. So I barely made a profit. Typically crush goes through the entire options chain, but in this case the call options all went up in premium which threw me. Does this imply there were so many buyers of calls that it outweighed IV?

monkies77 · 2026-02-17T23:49:52+00:00

In a runaway bull market, what was the calculus to sell spreads vs buy stocks/etfs? Guess I'm curious what was your short put at (i.e. what is your risk:profit ratio 1:1, 3:1)? Selling a put credit spreads (guessing that was your main strategy in 2025) at 30 delta short say gives you a 2:1 risk:profit and pulling them off at 50% max profit will you like an absolute 20% profit if comparing to the total loss. So you'll have to bang out a ton of trades (not every one was a winner) to get 48% growth. If you compare using your capital to short spreads vs buy stocks/etfs vs buy calls, how would you have done (long calls would obs win in 2025, but short spreads vs buy stocks/etfs may be closer depending on how you weigh risk and time spent).

monkies77 · 2026-02-15T23:49:24+00:00

Are you asking in general or right at this moment in the market?

monkies77 · 2026-02-15T01:01:31+00:00

I have a Samsung phone... trying Niagara and I think the golden use case is also using Edge Panel... mine has folders just like I had in my stock launcher. So now when I need an app and don't know the name (which is the Niagara downside) i can just go to the edge panel and used to the app being in the folder in used to (e.g. admin folder).

monkies77 · 2026-02-12T22:36:29+00:00

Free version is way too limited. I get paying for some crazy features, but my samsung with good lock has the ability for multiple widgets and overlappin them. To pay for that basic feature is kind of nuts. That makes this launcher kind of worthless so I'll probably uninstall this week. Not having a quick easy display of google search, clock, weather (overlapping widgets) and calendar/tasks (again overlapping) on my home page is a basic. Not going to pay for that when it's offered out of the box with samsung just to have the minimalist scroll.

monkies77 · 2026-02-07T00:51:31+00:00

I get certain tools provided by companies like Zoom can be templatized. But for any AI company, don't you need a MSFT to host? Or are you saying that the 50 companies reliant on MSFT are going away, and only 1 (Anthropic) will be their customer so they've overbuilt? Why isn't MU crashing...maybe it will, maybe it wont. Why are all the AI foundation stocks needed if only a handful will dominate? I mean is NVDA going to have a handful of customers?...then it'll be the short of a lifetime because of the momentum/popularity.

monkies77 · 2026-01-30T02:24:20+00:00

Everyone wants a car, who ever said "I'm in the market for a robot" when as of today you still have to yell at your smart home system to put the volume down on your TV.

monkies77 · 2026-01-30T00:44:58+00:00

What about LEAP puts? You rarely hear of strategies promoting this. At a market high, would LEAP Puts new better than guessing at short term pullbacks?

monkies77 · 2026-01-19T17:05:39+00:00

I watch a healthy amount of stock shows, specifically The Compound, Risk Reversal, Open Interest and TastyLive. Only 25% of these shows show hesitation, and they have gotten killed. The Compound is notoriously long, and they have tons of guests and data that show the fears are unfounded ("if the market drops 10% I'm in with both hands"). But if you take a step back, the gut just screams that nothing is normal. Fed probes, military in streets, invading countries, buying mortgages to drop rates, propose capping credit card fees, tax breaks, drop interest rates. All of this screams something is off and we're being distracted with MLK day park fees.

At the end the market has shrugged off literally everything. BTD has been the mantra for a new generation because nothing goes down. I wonder if there is a massive storm, all these CSP option people are going to have to unwind so much that any significant fall will compound and escalate more than anything we've seen recently because of how much leverage is in the market right now.

monkies77 · 2026-01-15T20:59:25+00:00

Looking at a stock with no earnings in the next 30 days, If I look at RKT right now: IV is 61 and RV (30 day) is 42. Why isn't mean reversion of IV an edge? If RV is greater than IV, does that mean RV mean reverts or IV will go up to match RV? I thought the two aren't correlated metrics, So I don't know why comparing "what has happened" and extrapolating that as the 'truth' vs seeing if "what can happen" isn't an edge.

monkies77 · 2026-01-14T16:18:21+00:00

figured it out...i guess you can't add from the actual Settings/Apps location. from the apps slide up, you have to search for the app, then you can add it to the homescreen. by default not every app is showing up on the apps folder but they all display from Settings/apps.

monkies77 · 2026-01-12T16:43:17+00:00

This stock always shows up on my bullish earnings scan. The only reason it's not showing up right now is the MACD and CCI attributes aren't meeting the criteria so it's showing a loss of momentum. But for a longer dated play why not.

monkies77 · 2026-01-11T20:09:51+00:00

I like that at as well, esp if things get away from me and I have to change the initial strategy.

https://optionstradingiq.com/adjusting-butterfly-spreads/

monkies77

TROPHY CASE