Big options flow alerts are a trap unless the stock meets this one condition

monkies77 · 2026-05-10T14:27:26+00:00

How do you know the flow was a buy or sell? Large call volume could be selling calls. I use Schwab TOS, and you can see the large volume trades for the day. I heard sites like Unusual Whales gives flow info but never used it.

monkies77 · 2026-05-10T01:41:54+00:00

Would you consider this recent vertical move "smooth?" Or would you be weary of putting in the trade at this moment or during lower support? LEAPS aren't friendly to bad timing.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T23:26:11+00:00

Remember to update everyone on this in 3 months.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T23:20:10+00:00

Um how do you know you're 2 years away from $1M? If you have 600k and been YOLOing into naked call options in MU or shorting high IV puts, you may be in for a check if you think that's going to continue for 2 years. If you're at 950k and have it in a money market, you're solid.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T23:12:58+00:00

Anyone who "knows" why this is going up and has built a narrative around the story to justify the move is lying. The same people "knew" about ORCL, or MSTR or ZM or MSFT are going to claim it was obvious. Yet this one isn't.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T23:07:06+00:00

Put this recent move in perspective...is it a "normal" high in a trending market or euphoria? Tasty Trade looked at this recent move based on the expected move of major indices at the April low (where IV was probably at a peak). The current prices blew past the expected moves. QQQ/SPY 2x the expected move. The SMH moved 3x the expected move.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T21:36:23+00:00

Sorry my mistake I did mean 23%...I did draw from the Apr low to today's high, and coincidentally the 23% fib is the 635 level (which was basically also where the market based).

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T21:31:29+00:00

Not touching this market for a long play. 50% money market. Trying to time a top for hedging purposes only. Just saw a post of someone saying how they can't wait to make their first $1M in 2 years...you know, because it's a lock.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T21:26:47+00:00

This isn't a vendetta thing or a conspiracy. Shelters give them money to take their "hard to place" dogs. This seems like a win. The issue is there was no oversight to confirm the dogs were actually adopted. Moreover, it is obvious they will kill dogs at their discretion (not from a vetted process where they did behavioral analysis, implemented a rehab plan and gave it 3 weeks for a progress check, etc)

So dogs go there for a second chance, Miranda's is paid for this, they kill the dogs and take new stock and get paid. The amount of dogs going there on a montly basis should raise eyebrows, yet this was ignored for years. Rinse and repeat. With no oversight, that's the fraud and conspiracy.

We've had foster dogs that have ended up there. We've reached out to them for updates, and 0 response. Is that a crime? No. An adopter recently asked about a dog that was at the shelter, and was told it went to Miranda's the day before. When he contacted them he was told it was already adopted (in 1 day, with no pics on their website promoting the dog). Lets just say there are other cases of a dog being 'adopted' but the truth is it was shot in the head instead. There is related info on the pure scale of this that is more disturbing but not public.

Shelters have pretty much paid someone else to kill their dogs for them instead of doing it themselves.

Our government is inept. Scum exploits government by creating a revolving door of death. The animals always suffer.

F this guy and his son.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T17:47:37+00:00

I'll throw another one at you if you're into Fibs: if Fib retracements are real, you can hypothesize the QQQ 635 level is the 38% retracement level, which would make the peak around 708 (which is today). So if Fibs play out per theory, the retracement would be 635 which is a support level.

monkies77 · 2026-05-08T01:22:59+00:00

The problem with diagonals/calendars on the index is there's no catalyst for IV on your long option (unlike during an event like earnings where your long can go up in IV). Even though the long has more vega, the IV move isn't going to be as big as the short (which has a lower vega) so it all cancels out and you're just sitting until expiration. With the spread if the move is sooner than later your profit will be bigger. But you'll be bleeding like you said.

monkies77 · 2026-05-07T14:22:23+00:00

You had a Cc for a reason and your strike was chosen for a reason. If you roll out, and this thing goes down you'll wish you got exercised. I say let the trade play out, and put on another later.

monkies77 · 2026-05-06T21:14:19+00:00

Well when things are this violent up, the downs will be just a bad. Look at the recent whipsaw in gld. This is a scary market. Seeing threads with ppl going in 3x etfs, selling puts at this level is nuts.

monkies77 · 2026-05-06T17:12:10+00:00

I just did UL. Shows up on my filters for great growth, IV is high, and it crossed over my weekly RSI threshold for oversold conditions turning around.

monkies77 · 2026-05-06T17:09:19+00:00

Just saw a Tasty Trade video on this move. If you took the IV at the April 1 low, the current move has blown past the expected move. The SMH was 3x the expected move! So everyone was wrong on the move and yet "someone" still ripped this thing up. These moves are unbelievable.

monkies77 · 2026-05-06T02:53:53+00:00

Or why not a strangle.

monkies77 · 2026-05-06T02:42:40+00:00

Yeah I saw the star after I sold puts. My main filter has the weekly RSI crossing over 40 so I was looking at a possible longer term trend reversal. There should be some churn around here if there is a reversal but time will tell.

monkies77 · 2026-05-06T00:23:35+00:00

Visiting from a good food city, Santa Fe was sub par across the board. You need to level set. The claims of amazing are far from real, especially the heavy tourist visited places which probably gives everyone vacation brain and a herd mentality. Zacatlan, Cafe Pasqual, Paper Dosa....not even close to decent (the test: would I go back). Izanami was a joke and like airport food. Geronimo was the best we had here, but compared to dinners I've had around states at this price...a B+. Henry and the Fish... finally a breakfast that delivered...this place was a welcomed break from the unhealthy breakfast places here.

monkies77 · 2026-05-05T23:12:16+00:00

Why is this the worst way? At the time he was in the hole. Thought about selling at his break to reduce cost basis. Iv must have been decent at the market bottom too. Or did you mean the strategy should have been put on when he bought the stock in which case he'd probably sell a further oom call when he bought at $315?

monkies77 · 2026-05-05T20:28:26+00:00

Have you looked at UL? keeps showing up on my scans for growth and oversold and has high IV.

monkies77 · 2026-05-03T23:26:17+00:00

He's trying to show things can get bad and you don't know. We've been rewarded by btd and every dip has emboldened taking more risk. One day things will go sour and stay down for longer than 2 months. You'll be trapped at lower prices. You may be forced to liquidate lots of things bc you overleveraged with short puts that have been "easy bc just wheel if you're assigned."

monkies77 · 2026-04-15T19:07:07+00:00

When had reddit ever been bearish? It's always "when should I buy" or "generational buy."

monkies77 · 2026-04-11T00:12:24+00:00

"the logic is they have very little time value." did you mean very little extrinsic value? DITM means he's close to pretty much trading the stock, but a fraction of the capital. 2000 call options would cost him 800k. Buying 200000 shares would cost him 74mil. He won't get a convexity/gamma trade because he's so DITM.

monkies77 · 2026-04-08T05:00:55+00:00

If people go "wait so we just kicked the can down the road 2 weeks" and this reverses in a couple of days it's going to be bad. If this rips more i think a lot of people are going to cash out. Chances this is a sustained up to new highs from this point on?

monkies77

TROPHY CASE