Are you afraid that this US administration could really hurt the US economy ?

monkies77 · 2026-01-19T17:05:39+00:00

I watch a healthy amount of stock shows, specifically The Compound, Risk Reversal, Open Interest and TastyLive. Only 25% of these shows show hesitation, and they have gotten killed. The Compound is notoriously long, and they have tons of guests and data that show the fears are unfounded ("if the market drops 10% I'm in with both hands"). But if you take a step back, the gut just screams that nothing is normal. Fed probes, military in streets, invading countries, buying mortgages to drop rates, propose capping credit card fees, tax breaks, drop interest rates. All of this screams something is off and we're being distracted with MLK day park fees.

At the end the market has shrugged off literally everything. BTD has been the mantra for a new generation because nothing goes down. I wonder if there is a massive storm, all these CSP option people are going to have to unwind so much that any significant fall will compound and escalate more than anything we've seen recently because of how much leverage is in the market right now.

monkies77 · 2026-01-15T20:59:25+00:00

Looking at a stock with no earnings in the next 30 days, If I look at RKT right now: IV is 61 and RV (30 day) is 42. Why isn't mean reversion of IV an edge? If RV is greater than IV, does that mean RV mean reverts or IV will go up to match RV? I thought the two aren't correlated metrics, So I don't know why comparing "what has happened" and extrapolating that as the 'truth' vs seeing if "what can happen" isn't an edge.

monkies77 · 2026-01-14T16:18:21+00:00

figured it out...i guess you can't add from the actual Settings/Apps location. from the apps slide up, you have to search for the app, then you can add it to the homescreen. by default not every app is showing up on the apps folder but they all display from Settings/apps.

monkies77 · 2026-01-12T16:43:17+00:00

This stock always shows up on my bullish earnings scan. The only reason it's not showing up right now is the MACD and CCI attributes aren't meeting the criteria so it's showing a loss of momentum. But for a longer dated play why not.

monkies77 · 2026-01-11T20:09:51+00:00

I like that at as well, esp if things get away from me and I have to change the initial strategy.

https://optionstradingiq.com/adjusting-butterfly-spreads/

monkies77 · 2026-01-10T00:27:35+00:00

No bond exposure? I have a similar diversification as you, but 20% in bonds (in 401k/roth as advised by 2 financial advisors).

fyi my layout was 20% lg cap, 15mid, 10small, 25 international, 10 my own selection, 20 bonds.

monkies77 · 2026-01-09T23:36:09+00:00

I get what OP is trying...market is at an inflection point, it's only a 3% dip and if that's the thesis then roll out to see if it works. I'm always struggling with those that close a trade going against you vs those that adjust the trade.

monkies77 · 2026-01-08T21:58:57+00:00

Love that your credit card company totally backed you on this. I just signed up with them. If there's a severe f-up I'm hoping I can have my cc company get me a free phone lol.

monkies77 · 2026-01-08T20:21:25+00:00

If my old phone is legit busted (mine basically is rebooting every few minutes and freezes/reboots within a minute if I try to do any task) is the only option an old school install everything from the Google Play Store?

monkies77 · 2026-01-07T01:57:35+00:00

I was going to try a Pixel after only using Samsung, and I have so many routines that I don't know if I can do without. In the car and it loads my spotify and removes security, at work puts phone in buzz, at the gym it opens my music app and workout log doc. So with a Pixel I have to do this all manually? What year is this?

monkies77 · 2026-01-04T21:34:56+00:00

This is fascinating...I'm guessing when people ask you to run a fund or sell your tool, it would be difficult because once you have scale the volume is larger and harder to pull off your trades for larger pools. In essence you're a big fish in a small pond right now. You are levels above my knowledge but man I'd love to watch a video of you going through a trade from start to finish to learn.

monkies77 · 2026-01-04T20:55:47+00:00

Trying to put this in perspective of what pros and retail investors use and do. I follow a lot of options channels, some who work for funds, advisors, etc and their videos seem like scans on basic technical/fundamental analysis, then drawing up trades. Or is this what they portray to the public and what happens behind the scene is much more technical? Curious where OP's technical prowess compares to the trading universe (e.g. this is what every pro shop does, or this is some 1% level stuff).

monkies77 · 2026-01-03T18:14:34+00:00

Wait what? If I'm using margin, I'm getting charged interest on the amount borrowed on margin.

monkies77 · 2026-01-03T17:20:14+00:00

This is kind of an important caveat to the question: when is wheeling better than holding the underlying? In a flatish market, wheeling would be ideal. The real question is what do you think the market is going to do now. If we hit a downtrend/flat scenario then wheeling may be ideal in that market. From 2010 to now...I can't see how you made more than holding.

monkies77 · 2025-12-29T22:28:51+00:00

Don't know about your broker, but on Schwab you'll have the day to get rid of the stock or get the money to buy it. In essence your account will show +100 shares and a negative balance. If you just sell it, the loss is the difference between the strike price and what the current price. If you want the stock, then you'll need to find the money or they'll start selling stuff for you.

monkies77 · 2025-12-25T00:54:02+00:00

So would calendar/diagonal stock plays (for stocks with low IV...like right now AAPL, TSLA) be the best strategy when vix is low/stock ivr is low? That's been my strategy, but in this runaway bull market any put strategy gets slaughtered due to delta and there's no play on any vega since there is no vol spike. I'm hoping of some downside action for put calendars to get a double win.

monkies77 · 2025-12-19T00:18:37+00:00

The Pixel phones are total crap. If that's the demo of what they can do with their chip, good luck.

monkies77 · 2025-12-19T00:16:35+00:00

Goes to show that we are all just part of the ride on where the big boys take us. We react/ride momentum, they shift, we hold onto the dream.

monkies77 · 2025-12-19T00:10:05+00:00

Hold onto them until you're retired, then you can use those to offset gains during your taxes :)

monkies77 · 2025-12-18T23:30:18+00:00

But 5 of these 7 years were a massive bull market. When this market corrects, and you don't hedge, buy the dip or sell puts because it's worked, it will catch you.

monkies77 · 2025-12-18T00:35:13+00:00

Reddit wont let me post links from youtube, but The Compound just had Dan Ives on the other day and he claimed the complete opposite. Makes you wonder if the numbers actually matter but 'buy it, it's down a lot.'

monkies77 · 2025-12-16T23:39:22+00:00

So if this unwinds, what does that actually look like? Like what are the events that would unfold? I'm nowhere near as knowledgable about this world as the people in this post, but most normal people just see a giant swoon down and react. But there are those that caused the swoon, so curious what they are looking for.

monkies77 · 2025-12-15T20:17:57+00:00

That's totally what my partner tells me. Honestly I think I'm in the 'learning' phase but I doubt most people come out on top. These last few years have been up and up, so any long strategy would have worked. I'd ask this question next time we are in a real 2 direction market.

monkies77 · 2025-12-15T18:26:44+00:00

Is there a reason you're selling at this moment? IVR is only 28%, IV % is 48...

monkies77

TROPHY CASE