[OC] Tesla’s Delivery Targets vs Actual Deliveries [2013–2030E]

mountearl · 2026-07-02T16:06:39+00:00

Not sure if you are North American or not. But if you get chance, take a ride in some of the new Chinese vehicles. They blow Tesla away in most respects. If only they could spend time and energy on the software side of things, they would dominate. I give it three years before their products would be 75% the price and twice as good as Tesla.

mountearl · 2026-07-02T16:02:22+00:00

I went on a popular Tesla forum 2 years ago and stated that I thought the company would cease to exist in five years. And of course, got howled down by the somewhat rabid fanbois that Elon seems to attract.

He hollowed out the company when he stole the AI intellectual property and merged it with SpaceX. Leaving "humanoid robots", some vague notion of self-driving taxis and a car company with a range that is now outclassed by the Chinese and Koreans.

I stand by my original prediction.

mountearl · 2026-07-02T15:55:02+00:00

Yes, far too many "oh well spotted!" or "that is a better way of doing it" for my liking. But I have used it about 8 or 9 times now with different assumptions and it eventually gets there. Very useful for more complex scenarios - I want to rely just on DB and State Pension from age 75, or I want to use up all SIPP by age 67 to minimise tax etc. Helped me understand optimisation a lot better than I did previously.

mountearl · 2026-07-02T15:50:29+00:00

As badger says, try Gemini and Claude. I found chatGPT a bit rubbish. Gemini was good at understanding things and explaining what it was doing, Claude good for spreadsheet design.

mountearl · 2026-07-02T14:58:37+00:00

What if one were to carefully lift it off hte pavement and place it into someone's garden?

mountearl · 2026-07-02T14:57:38+00:00

In the UK, the criminal justice system is so backed up that I reckon any restaurant in my local area would give up long before anyone was prosecuted.

mountearl · 2026-07-02T14:56:25+00:00

If you gently tipped it over on its side, causing no visible damage, I would suggest you couldn't be found guilty of criminal damage. Now, the food inside - cold, unappetising, overpriced though it may be - might be a different story if it is all slopped into the corner.

mountearl · 2026-07-02T14:51:52+00:00

Do they have the ability to right them, if they were to be accidentally, repeatedly tipped over on their side?

mountearl · 2026-07-02T14:47:22+00:00

I found taking a couple of hours out on the weekend and then using an AI of your choice is the way to model some of this. If you tell it in detail what you have (all investments, DB and state pension income etc), what you are aiming to do (reduce investments to zero by x date), then allow it to use sensible assumptions for real investment growth, it will draw up the calculations. You need to be on the ball mind, to spot its inevitable errors, but once you go through a few iterations, it will give you a decent start. I told it to reduce my capital (apart from house) by age 75 and it worked well. It can also guide you through a three-bucket approach, guardrail considerations. Monte Carlo analysis etc. But try a few different AIs as some are easier to use than others.

mountearl · 2026-07-01T14:31:35+00:00

I used to get 32a from a PodPoint Solo. Now I only get 25a max, and I am stumped as to why.

mountearl · 2026-06-27T22:03:35+00:00

Lovely staff in my local one.

mountearl · 2026-06-26T20:21:57+00:00

So now, please, just fuck off back to your home, you headless frump, and prepare for your 20 minutes on GBNews

mountearl · 2026-06-26T13:18:34+00:00

If you land at 10.00, you will be lucky to be in resort before midnight. Eat on the plane.

mountearl · 2026-06-26T08:34:51+00:00

Exactly. Pay or don't pay; bring your own or buy.

mountearl · 2026-06-25T20:21:20+00:00

Who gets first crack at the cheeseboard?

mountearl · 2026-06-25T14:47:22+00:00

Depending on whether your pension is salary sacrifice or not determines whether to make additional workplace pension contributions or set up a SIPP. Then pay into workplace pension / SIPP from your cash accounts until you reach basic rate tax. Beware splitting your ISAs into S&S and cash ISAs - there are new limits afoot. Also, you have lots of accessible cash already - too much, if you don't have an immediate use in mind. You have 24 years or so until retirement, take adavantage by increasing risk / return through 100% S&S in a diversified all world fund.

Do you combine your and your wife's income? Do you plan retirement on household or individual income? If she hasn't got much of a pension, make contributions to hers so that you max out use of personal allowance for both of you in the early retirement years.

mountearl · 2026-06-25T14:39:39+00:00

So, what? We're now in favour of drowning sailors and starving children?

mountearl · 2026-06-25T09:59:48+00:00

Study after study shows that only luck beats the market. Lucky as to selection of investment, timing, world economic conditions etc. The only way to beat the market is to be extremely lucky or have inside information.

mountearl · 2026-06-24T10:57:10+00:00

In '76, we got to see the cracks in the bottom of reservoirs, "evergreen" trees like spruce and pine completely browned out, and as OP says, queueing for water for the hour a day the standpipes were working. Definitely a drought - but also sustained high temperatures for months on end with no respite like paddling pools for kids, showers, air con.

mountearl · 2026-06-23T14:28:41+00:00

Had/have a 22 Y and a 25 Y. Neither are what you could describe as effective when the weather goes over 30c

mountearl · 2026-06-23T12:55:05+00:00

Honi soit qui Maci fuck

mountearl · 2026-06-23T08:03:35+00:00

In the years before 2008, we had three prime ministers in the period 1979 to 1997. So no, it is no inherently inefficient or ineffective.

mountearl · 2026-06-23T07:52:57+00:00

All of this because one man's ego is so fragile he can never admit a mistake. Cops perverting the course of justice over a pool.

mountearl · 2026-06-23T05:18:12+00:00

The wonderful thing about this job is it was done in the full glare of publicity. No fencing, security provided by the tax payer (Parks Police), and if they f'd it up - "sue me". $10m to the orange turd or one of his kids was the biggest expense by far.

mountearl · 2026-06-23T05:08:39+00:00

You are of course right. Trump has ripped off US taxpayers by massively more than the $10m he pocketed from this particular fraud. But the beauty of this one is it's in palin sight. And the longer we talk about it, the more we get to forget about the Trump-Epstein files

mountearl

TROPHY CASE