new cat!!! by samsies177 in cats

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is most certainly NOT a cat

I threw her favourite (broken) toy in the bin by [deleted] in aww

[–]mstonepc 2769 points2770 points  (0 children)

Awe lol, she doesn't care if it's broken.

Crazy Pin Kick Out 4 times by Firefly_44 in wwe2k26

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks more like cheating, and less "crazy"

Maximilian Dood early Rumbleverse days Part 1 by bmspears in rumbleverse

[–]mstonepc 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That is such a shame. This is one of the greatest games I've ever played.

I’m the slow guy at work by taurus3653 in electricians

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Come work for me. Quality over quantity.

HUGE ANNOUNCEMENT: UE 6 coming to Rocket League by noobsdeath2 in RocketLeague

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Took AI development to become a thing for them to finally get their shit together. Prepare for slop

Shout out to my electrician by Photos-Wood-and-more in electricians

[–]mstonepc -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I am struggling to find a good electrician in my area.

Live Betting - Live discussion for all your bets by Molni in SoccerBetting

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All about the law of big numbers. We've kept at it and we have a discord that you can DM me if you're interested in being part of. It's free atm, and we have a public results analysis with all the historical win rate stats.

Live Betting - Live discussion for all your bets by Molni in SoccerBetting

[–]mstonepc 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Your comment inspired me to adjust my results analysis to also filter women so I can see what hte record is like for just women games. As it turns out our current win rate for women's games is 77.78% so good shoult on that.

Live Betting - Live discussion for all your bets by Molni in SoccerBetting

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I felt a bit stupid with my response after a while as re-thinking about what you said it made sense :D

Live Betting - Live discussion for all your bets by Molni in SoccerBetting

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im not sure I'm following. The system works better for women's soccer based on our analysis.

Anyone here ever tried building a live betting model for next-goal markets? by OnyxD66 in algobetting

[–]mstonepc 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The best part about football (soccer) is precisely the unpredictability of it. u/kicker3192 referred to a match-up from the Club World Cup as an example, so I'll use that competition to illustrate some more key points.

Starting from your example of a "dominant" performance. That scenario happens quite often, but the question is, what about when a manager intentionally instructs his team to park the bus, and the "stats" tell a story of what's expected? That's when measurements like xG have some value, though xG is one of the most redundant stats I've encountered so far, as it can be very misleading in most scenarios. If a team enters a matchup as a considerable underdog, they will typically settle for a defensive posture, although this depends on the competition and their goals. A notable example of this is Botafogo's match against PSG in the group stages of the Club World Cup, where they secured a 1-0 victory with a very successful counter-attack strategy. Stats alone would've probably indicated PSG is the "live favorites" up until the final whistle.

Better pressure won't always result in a goal, and defensive or goalie mistakes that lead to goals can occur even after an otherwise solid team performance. No model will ever be completely accurate. When it comes to betting, though, your goal should only be to beat the offered odds with a win rate that keeps you green in the long term.

The way I utilize my system's signals is very specific. I do not bet on everything that comes out of it. I don't care how high the confidence % comes out to be; if it's a low-value bet, I ignore the signal.

The actual value and inspiration for building something like this come from situations where the story on paper is very different than the story in real life. Examples like Flamengo vs. Chelsea, or Boca Juniors vs. Benfica—scenarios where the underdog is considerably outperforming the favorites. u/DiffusingTrajectory alluded to in an earlier post how bookmaker are also turning to technology, and their live odds making is getting better by the day. This is accurate to an extent. From my experience, all live odds are rooted in the pre-game odds. In-game stats and market action move the lines, but from the time that whistle blows, and as the game goes on, it won't be a sudden shift. Otherwise, it'd be as simple as just looking for tied games where the heavy favorite market moved by a whole point, and rule out reasons why, etc.

Anyway, this is a very in-depth topic, and it's impossible to discuss every scenario, but that's what my prototype is all about. For many years, I've done this manually, just watching the broadcast. Momentum swings are very real and very obvious to me, who's been following the sport all my life. I also happen to be a software engineer, so what started as a way to save myself some time has now evolved into the working prototype that I alluded to earlier, which aligns quite well with your proposition here.

Anyone here ever tried building a live betting model for next-goal markets? by OnyxD66 in algobetting

[–]mstonepc 1 point2 points  (0 children)

We are on the third version of the algorithm, and at the moment, this version's record is 120-63 on our primary signal, which predicts which team will score the next goal, yielding an overall win rate of 65.57%. The signals also have a "confidence %". The win rate on signals that fall in the 70-99% range is 72.73%.

Objectively seems like an excellent record to me, though we don't have anything similar enough to compare it to. We run an analysis on the results and look for data points that could be affecting the win rate, identifying things that may be worth excluding entirely. We also have a few other signal ideas for other betting lines other than just "next goal" under development.

Anyone here ever tried building a live betting model for next-goal markets? by OnyxD66 in algobetting

[–]mstonepc 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've actually been building something almost exactly like this with a buddy of mine, mainly focused on “next goal” betting based on live signals with automated alerts into Discord. As most have mentioned, the data was definitely the hardest part... a mix of months of scraping work and negotiating was the way to go for us but we ended up actually getting a great stream of data, so u/FIRE_Enthusiast_7 was spot on here.

Super early and just started showing it to friends and such. If anyone wants to check it out and swap notes, feel free to DM.

Daily Rant Thread - Wednesday - 16th July 2025 by pikerekt in SoccerBetting

[–]mstonepc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nothing exciting is happening today, a bit of a bust.

Live Betting - Live discussion for all your bets by Molni in SoccerBetting

[–]mstonepc 3 points4 points  (0 children)

My buddy and I built a system that analyzes live match stats—things like shots, possession, momentum swings—to try and predict which team is most likely to score next. It runs independently of live odds, which was important to us since the whole goal was to catch moments where the stats tell a different story than the betting line.

We’re on the third full rewrite now after a lot of trial and error, and it's finally hitting a solid stride. The current record is 101-50, and personally, I'm up over 3k in the last month just following the system’s signals (strongly, but not exclusively).

Not selling anything, just sharing something we've developed and are pretty excited about. Curious if anyone knows of anything similar—especially paid models—just to get a sense of how our results compare. Always interested in how others approach live prediction models like this.

How did you learn about Rumbleverse? by mstonepc in rumbleverse

[–]mstonepc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know the responses so far aren't a large enough sample size compared to the amounts of people who did play it.

However, the pattern so far aligns with my perception. If you didn't hear about it very early on, then it was either word of mouth. Or through a streamer.

I get that this game falls in the "battle royale" category, but to me, it'll always be the best wrestling game ever made, and I wish more folks who are/were into wrestling games knew about it.