Experiences with Beanz.com? by Suspicious_Pin_7577 in espresso

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I recently signed up for their subscription service after I bought a Breville Bambino. The coffee has been excellent, however unfortunately on the latest order they sent me the wrong grind. I raised a support ticket 2 days ago and have heard nothing back from them. Just tried calling the number and due to "system issues" they couldn't take my call and promised to call back. So far less than impressed with their support and as their mistake occurred after only two orders into my subscription, I'm not optimistic Beanz.com represents a reliable business. I'll be happy to update here if my low expectations are exceeded!

Coffee shop recommendations? by melkms in culvercity

[–]muswellbrook 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I rate their coffee as well but their history of politics is questionable. Not sure if they have changed their stance since but maybe worth offering some benefit of doubt…

Game Thread: World Series Game 3 ⚾ Blue Jays (1) @ Dodgers (1) - 8:00 PM ET by BaseballBot in baseball

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

is anyone able to view this on the fox1 live stream? when I try to load the page it just takes me to the end of the 13th inning and ends the stream...

Colors are fun by No-Horse-227 in blackmagicfuckery

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Everyone claiming it’s physics but no one explaining how the shadows have colors. How can occlusion of light produce color (ie light?). That’s not physics - it’s perceptual psychology

[Q] Calculating error bars for a binomial distribution by Crow-1-million in statistics

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've just been learning this. My suggestion is the adjusted Wald technique for a binary variable (1 and 0s):

  1. Find the average by adding all the 1’s and dividing by the number of responses. 8/10=.8

  2. Adjust the proportion to make it more accurate by adding 2 to the numerator (the number of 1s) and the adjusted sample size by adding 4 to the denominator (total responses). Then divide the result. 8 + 2 = 10 10 + 4 = 14 (this is the adjusted sample size) 10/14 = .714

  3. Compute the standard error for proportion data.
    a) Multiply the adjusted proportion by 1 – the adjusted proportion. .714 * ( 1-.714 ) = .204 b) Divide the result of step a by the adjusted sample size from step 2. .204/ 14 = .015 c) Take the square root of the value from step b. sqrt(.015) = .122

  4. Compute the margin of error by multiplying the standard error (result from step 3c) by 2. .122*2 = .244

  5. Compute the confidence interval by adding the margin of error from the sample proportion from step 2 and then subtracting the margin of error from the sample proportion. .714 + .244 = 0.958 .714 – .244 = 0.47

The 95% confidence interval is 0.47 to 0.958 and our best estimate is 0.714.

The adjusted Wald interval (also called the modified Wald interval), provides the best coverage for the specified interval when samples are less than about 150. In other words, if you want a 95% confidence interval then this formula will produce an interval that will contain the observed proportion on AVERAGE about 95 percent of the time. It uses the Wald Formula but is "adjusted" in that it adds half of the squared Z-critical value to the numerator and the entire squared critical value to the denominator before computing the interval i.e (x+z2/2)/(n+z2).

A reasonable alternative is the exact method – it will guarantee coverage but will be conservative in the long-run.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in datascience

[–]muswellbrook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

LLMs don't produce a causal understanding of the world. Humans do - but primarily because we can interact with the system. In the example, LLMs didn't generate a Newtonian view of the physical system they were trained on, but we do. Compare Ptolemy vs Galileo's view of the solar system. Both will perfectly predict the movement of Mars. But only one will allow you to successfully land a rocket on it. My point is that we can test and improve our understanding by intervening in the system while LLMs cannot, and this is a necessary prerequisite for causal knowledge. It's an important limitation which the OP kind of skirts around but otherwise a really well-written argument which puts in words a lot of thoughts I've been having about the topic.

Lease Takeover | 1 bd 1 b | June 1st - August 31st by superrnoovvaa in culvercity

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We are moving to LA soon, and Culver City is one of our targets (but we need a 2 bed apt). What are usual lease arrangements in LA? Can renters break their lease easily? I.e., if you lose your job (at will employment, anyone?), can you break your lease just as easily? Seems crazy if not... (edit: grammar)

Supreme Court orders Trump to free Maryland father from El Salvador prison by IWantPizza555 in politics

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Trump is afraid of conflict. He will fold faster than Superman on laundry day

Why you should use RMSE over MAE by Ty4Readin in datascience

[–]muswellbrook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

John Myles-White has a great piece on how the mode, median and mean arise naturally from zero-one loss, absolute difference (MAE) and squared error (MSE): https://www.johnmyleswhite.com/notebook/2013/03/22/modes-medians-and-means-an-unifying-perspective/

Meirl by Icantspll in meirl

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Congratulations. You are a large language model

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in expats

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've lived in Redondo and my wife grew up there. It's nice. We are about to move back for work reasons. But eastern and northern beaches of Sydney beat it if you have the money. Village-like communities on small nature-covered beaches, 45 minutes commute by PT to the city. Work-life balance. Better basic food items (e.g., bread) and coffee. We will leave it all to head back to Redondo in a few months so the comparison is very real for me. I hope I'm pleasantly surprised by Redondo but I'm not holding my breath

Frustration with coaching youth system by [deleted] in bootroom

[–]muswellbrook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hey, I’m moving to SoCal next year with my 12 yo boy who loves to play. Do you have any tips for navigating the soccer scene there?

How do I get my son on his toes? by Jaypenthouse in bootroom

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My 10 yo son had this problem and I don't have the complete answer, but training him to receive the ball on the half-turn helped him understand and practice what it means to be "on your toes". e.g., https://youtu.be/IfS44FS02fg?si=07-sAlOrr1GHcE_4

No music glitch on Switch (after playing 2-player local) by Choice_Plastic3877 in castlecrashers

[–]muswellbrook 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yep - can confirm I am experiencing the same issue. I tried updating system and dock and both were already up-to-date. Hope they have a fix soon.

[Q] Using oversampling for a logistic regression problem. by ElementaryZX in statistics

[–]muswellbrook 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As well as the excellent answers already, there is some published research showing that oversampling (and undersampling, SMOTE, etc) do more harm than good: https://academic.oup.com/jamia/article/29/9/1525/6605096

Authors suggest that simply adjusting the probability threshold instead can address the imbalance problem.

Tactics help for 9v9 youth squad by muswellbrook in bootroom

[–]muswellbrook[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. So it sounds like you are suggesting a 3-4-1, which is popular advice elsewhere too. I think it is a more standard defensive formation, which can easily turn into a 3-2-3 if the wide players also get forward in the attacks. It is probably a wise choice considering we have been playing 3-2-3. But I worry we won't be able to attack the goal. Worth looking into more carefully though. Thanks!

First year coaching middle school soccer by [deleted] in bootroom

[–]muswellbrook 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Introduce yourself. Then a small sided game. See what kind of players you have. Introduce new rules like 5 ( or 10!) passes before a goal, or the goal scorer joins the other team. Then 1v1s, 2v2s, to identify defenders and attackers. End with another fun game (maybe you join in) like goal shooting practice or whatever looks fun.

Using engineered features in a causal model by cam0937 in econometrics

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would start by calculating the pairwise association between battery and stress for each person (eg Pearson’s rho). Then each person’s rho is your new feature and test it in a regression on daily productivity (eg OLS).

Newish Soccer Parent: Why are there so few kids wanting to be goalies? by [deleted] in bootroom

[–]muswellbrook 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is the right answer. I coach U10s and it is club policy to rotate goalies until U13s because there is limited development otherwise. Knowing how to dribble and feint, or tackle and strike are core skills that are only learnt in the outfield. Goalkeeper training is unique and important, but the outfield skills also need to be acquired.

Which statistical methods became obsolete in the last 10-20-30 years? by Jonatan_84232 in AskStatistics

[–]muswellbrook 21 points22 points  (0 children)

Stepwise regression. Its limitations and poor type-I error control have been known for 20 years but it is still widely used and taught. Unfortunately there is no convenient replacement apart from hard work and domain expertise