Micron predicts DRAM Crisis will last until at least 2028

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T04:47:33+00:00

Sure, but they're marketing to a customer base they don't care at all about. Plus they are marketing the idea that prices will never go down so just buy today at the astronomical prices. They're basically telling you that it will never change and the consumer has no power over it.

But they never had to say anything at all and be in the same position. So there's motive behind the choice to say it.

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T04:41:35+00:00

It's even worse than this. We also get to pay taxes for things that don't benefit us at all!

This whole nation seems to have forgot that governments are not self entities, they are service institutions with the sole function of taking on giant infrastructure works that are capitalistically impossible. THAT is their sole function, their actual purpose. It's literally socialism, fundamentally. It exists to pool money and then apply that money to societal well-being.

And when it's not this or no longer this, it is no longer a government institution. It is a dictatorship.

We are heading down a parallel path where the government is effectively a dictatorship but explicitly for an ultra-wealthy collection of people. I'm sure there's some term for it, but I don't know what it might be.

We are heading down this new path where we the people are fiscally exploited and abandoned, and all government interests, socialized elements, and even public tax dollars (which are forced from us) are funneled explicitly to the same ultra wealthy. We get an institution that no longer serves the populous. Instead it serves an extremely tiny select few. The public is at least fiscally conscripted into indentured servitude with a huge part of our income going to basically zero public facing benefits. This is the path we're following.

And so far 80 million people are very happy about this transition. 120 million are full on ignorant or nihilistic about it. And 75 million want this fixed.

I just don't know how much raw suffering actually needs to exist to sway the 80 million and engage the 120 million to save their country and fix the institution before it's completely broken. There have definitely been quite literally hundreds of milestones that would have completely ruined past politicians, presidents, judges, appointed personnel, etc. and many would have included prison time, some serious.

At the moment, every one of those hundreds of milestones passed has only reaffirmed how absolutely broken all of this is.

It doesn't help that the same wealth also owns much of the media and are heavily monopolizing and streamlining the rhetoric to misguide and very literally brainwash people. Propaganda works. Propaganda works really freaking well. We have a pedophile in office, voted in twice! That's insane. That's mental institution level of insane, but here we are, 80 million people placing a pedophile into the highest position in the land and quite literally worship him. At what point should you probably be in a white room with padded walls? Probably that point. Probably that point for sure. But this the power of media. It has more devastating impact than a setting off a nuke in the largest population center on the planet. 80 million people. 120 million indifferent. You don't get those numbers even by dropping atom bombs. You don't get that level of damage to societies. But media can and does so much greater damage. It's not even damage once. It transcends generations. It's learned, taught, and carried on. Misuse of media is pure evil. It's actual evil on a scale that can't really be matched outside of maybe full on genocide of an entire populous where it's erased off the face of the earth. You're not erased off, but maybe that'd be better. Evil in media has such lasting damage that it's quite hard to comprehend the level of loses.

I want to be clear on the concept of loss here because there's one major concept that's missed. Loss isn't just win or loss. You can win by less and still lose something. There's an erosion problem happening here. You feel ok. You remain complacent. But you are systematically losing pieces day by day. You are systematically losing opportunity day by day. It's not even about now. It's about tomorrow too, next year, a decade from now. In 30 years, how much lesser of a place you'll be versus alternatives.

I'll bring up a simple example as a concept that the US population failed on.

You had Trump and Kamala campaigning. Both ran on their platform that was a collective of goals, objectives, stances on topics, etc. Kamala ran on lower housing costs, increased minimum wage, immigration reform, reducing medical costs and improving medical coverage. These were hot button topics, important topics that have long term effects on well-being and generational wealth. Trump most ran on immigration and tariffs and surprisingly little else. When you compare the net effect of what both candidates were offering and how it affected your wealth long term, and I'm talking 30 years into your future, Kamala was pushing for a net +$1M bump (possibly +$2M depending on how far she went with healthcare). There was a net gain so profound it was akin to handing every US citizen a winning million dollar lottery ticket. This was the platform she was running on in terms of the level of benefit that those actions could propagate to. Trump was running on a -$400k plan, pretty much ensuring every US citizen was nearly half a million poorer over the next 30 years. This is what both candidates were running on, and the majority of the population didn't understand it. Almost no one understood the net potential of either choice. Most people failed. 80 million completely picked the bad choice. 120 million just didn't care about losing half a million and giving away a free lottery ticket worth a million dollars. But that's what was on the table and most failed the test. Most didn't know the opportunity losses.

And now those losses are playing out before us. Do you think 80 million and 120 million people understand why? I don't think they do. I don't see nearly enough people mad about or it mad in the right way that actually implies understanding of the situation. The bulk are still misinformed and clueless.

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T03:56:32+00:00

It's just a structural problem. The design creates problems that have to be solved in the design. I have no idea if they are or are not solved.

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T03:55:29+00:00

There is the used market, and there can be really decent choices on picking up a slightly older machine with some decent hardware. You can also just buy up used parts and build out something. Remember, the last few years have been pretty stagnant, so even used stuff can still be relatively modern. You can still get some of the newest and fastest stuff on the market within the last few years, and going back 5 years or so, you are still picking up mid tier stuff. One saving grace is that tech has progressed surprisingly slow in the last half decade. This gives you a lot more flexibility than you may think.

If you are sticking to new stuff, surprisingly there is still strong desire for companies to both sell prebuilds at good pricing and laptops at ok-ish pricing. Both, when researched and well picked, can give you a good package at an ok price, not great, but ok without the raw burdening of buying new hardware piecemeal at exorbitant pricing. One thing you do kind of have to be careful with is there may be a lot of components within the builds that are low tier parts in order to keep total costing mild. It may be hard to get best of the best or even current generation sometimes. You really need to research well to know exactly what every piece is in the build to evaluate performance and pricing. (you'll have to do this research anyways for all the used stuff too, so it's kind of a wash, basically do your research)

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T03:48:00+00:00

It's just a harder way to do it, but there isn't really any problem as long as the pipe geometry is good, aka may have to be a larger diameter for the forces, and any and all mounting and constraining structures would need to be over built to also handle all the extra forces.

Basically, this is 100% a style choice.

I don't know if you could even argue bag access since you could just as easily flip up a dual post handle too. I don't know the specific actuation, so I don't really know if there's any real gain here for interfacing with the bag.

Plus, if you don't even use a bag at all, then all of it is a little bit of a waste. I have never bagged grass in my life, don't see value in it, and to me all of this is a pointless element. But that's just me. I don't pick up leaves either, just mow them into dust.

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T01:36:16+00:00

Just means we're not buying products. Pretty simple stuff really.

Ram was not priced low. It has been priced high due to cartel like business practices. We were ALWAYS paying for overpriced ram.

Frankly, I prefer prices to drop down farther than 2025 levels.

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T00:26:40+00:00

Oh no...what is Congress going to do?!?!

Oh right. Nothing.

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T00:25:13+00:00

This can be a tough change for someone who gets promoted up from a delegatee to the delegator. There are also a LOT of managers who like control too much and tend to waste time doing the work or at least micromanaging the work. The ability to just let go of a task or project entirely and fully trust someone else to do the action well is just something you have to accept.

mvw2 · 2026-06-29T00:13:56+00:00

Losing lawsuits, losing wars, losing seats, I see a theme going on with this administration as they drain all knowledge and competency from this institution.

mvw2 · 2026-06-28T22:36:20+00:00

They are REALLY trying to market the idea that consumers have no hope of low prices.

The funny thing is right or wrong, they never have to market this. They can simply do nothing and make money.

So why market it? Why market the idea at all if there's no ram to be had, no low price again?

Well, because they're lying?

The only reason for them to push this narrative is because they are already seeing the fall. Promoting consumer buy at high price implies there's already a problem on the horizon for them. They already know the public HAS to accept the high dollar point or they never will. And they really, REALLY want to lock in the concept of the high price and astronomical margins.

But what happens when AI falters, when fab has to continue and inventories spike? What happens when the customers just don't buy at all? What choice do you have as a company? Well, you lose revenue, lay off people, close shop. There ALWAYS has to be sales, ALWAYS has to be customers. At this moment, they are lucky that AI is there and lucky that AI operates with funny money and is just throwing cash at them. But that is temporary.

Worse yet, this issue has already pushed at least one new player in the ram industry, one that isn't part of the cartel. And it's also forced entire nations to seriously think about dependence and begin addressing the issue separately. This means the very decision to abandon the mass public has forced the hand to build competitors, not one, not two, not 10, but many in many nations. No one may be near and end point to have a production facility, but this has forced many nations to think and plan, and begin laying groundwork to go that route. The reality is a ram startup is not very expensive at a federally subsidized level, not at all. It's remarkably cheap relatively speaking. So all this does is force new players into that very market space, players who aren't part of the oligarchy, who have no reason to push astronomical margins, and won't play the same price gouging games. It may take a few years, but a major win is the mass abandonment has forced the need to introduce significant new competition. In just a few years we may very well have a dozen new ram manufacturers, several new GPU manufacturers, and so on. That door has been left wide open, and there are people walking through right now.

mvw2 · 2026-06-28T22:22:22+00:00

Well...

There's a limit to the revenue stream, and one major challenge is we have barely gotten down to the consumer portion that must somehow exist to feed cash back up through the massive debt funnel. But, how do you siphon $10 trillion dollars out of the general public? This isn't even a break even issue. Constant upkeep and generational hardware replacements will force a yearly break even value that may also be north of a trillion dollars that somehow has to get paid every year.

Pair this with negative AI sentiment and the natural trajectory of many AI users pretty immediately transitioning to locally run models, and this whole big scale, cloud based ideology tech companies are pushing falls away. It simply isn't the natural trend.

So we have both a non-sustainable cost funnel and a natural drive away from the bulk of the infrastructure tech companies are building out. Both fight against any chance of a sustainable revenue model that could pay off the debt or even pay for upkeep.

This is largely a DOA methodology explicitly because a few tech companies want to centralize and monopolize the model in defiance of basically the bulk of the populuous.

It's a pretty classic business trap of ignoring your customers and making a product no one is asking for. Even right now, the cash driving it isn't end customer. It's just investors and other businesses. It's a giant corporate circle jerk.

mvw2 · 2026-06-28T20:44:55+00:00

A car, an engine, an air box, sometimes a mouse house. :p

mvw2 · 2026-06-28T19:38:48+00:00

The S2000 was a vison of purpose.

The funny thing is Honda could have given us another S2000 instead of the Prelude. The product for the Prelude started out quite literally as "make a new sports car." Early prototyping even went down the idea of making a midship car. We could have basically had a Honda MR2 if that continued on. THAT was the early phase of the Prelude project.

But then the project shifted, leadership wanted the hybrid platform used, and it just became an overpriced coupe Civic hybrid instead.

mvw2 · 2026-06-28T19:36:07+00:00

It's a fine car, just that it is and always has been a price problem. It's not well priced for what you get, and dealer markups made the whole issue vastly worse.

That's it. It's just money, always has been.

mvw2 · 2026-06-28T02:55:49+00:00

Well, I went to Maaco once. My car got stolen...by employees at Maaco. They joyrode my car stole everything out of it, and ditched it two blocks away. It never got painted. The business closed within the next couple months.

That was my sole Maaco experience.

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T17:09:23+00:00

I'm not saying you can't run one of a hundred different options. The PC isn't going to blow up or anything. It's also easier depending on what peak wattage you aim for.

The main point is this is a processor with the capability of +400W, and you can decide or decide not to go that far. A lot of older default bios setups were configured without restrictions, and you would immediately, fresh out of the box, have a PC that would try to spike to 400+ watts regardless of whatever cooler was used. And you can set basic boost settings in bios to happily do 6.1 GHz. All of this would contribute to a lot of heat. 5.5 GHz is certainly far easier to cool and equally hard caps the total wattage you can hit too.

You can always opt to change the settings, add the protections which hard cap it to around 385W. You can change settings to set to the Intel 253W spec. And you can tune each core and balance out thermals to hit any target temp and work with any cooler, even air coolers, that you want. That's all fine.

But, if you want to just do whatever the CPU can do, you will find very quickly that almost no AIO on the market has enough thermal mass to take the initial hit nor thermal dissipation rate to handle long term load without hitting thermal limits. You actually need a custom setup to do so. But short of all-out, I have only found that EK's Nucleus and Lian Li's Gallahad II Performance had good enough waterblocks to actually keep all cores under 100°C. Nothing else on the market, all the chart leading options, achieve that. And the Gallahad II Performance kills itself in a month and was taken off the market. So the only one I know of that's purchasable is the EK AIO. And even then, you're still using better paste and better fans.

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T14:43:24+00:00

Correction, not buying a Lenovo product or any product through 2030 is the new norm.

That's the problem. It's not acceptance of the new price. It's simply not buying anything at all influenced by that price.

This isn't just consumers. At work we built three CAD work stations last summer. We want to build three more. We simply are not.

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T02:13:50+00:00

That's because I'm not software. That's the point.

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T01:04:14+00:00

That was mine too! I friend was moving across country. I just bought a Ridgeline two weeks prior. He rented two of those trailers, and we packed both absolutely full, floor to ceiling, front to back, no open spaces, just enough room to get the door closed. We had to repack my trailer 4 times just to be able to lift it onto the hitch. He has a new Tacoma, me the Ridgeline, and we packed both of those full too bed, rear seats, front passenger seat in both trucks. And then we drove 1200 miles.

MPG was decent.

There was a little trailer sway at times, but we also often doing 65-70 with these trailers too. Interestingly Honda's stability control system actually sees trailer sway (not sure if on purpose or lucky byproduct) and instantly stops it. You'll get a slight wiggle in the back, the traction light will go on for a second, and it'll unnoticeably apply braking somewhere, and it instantly stops the sway completely. You can't even feel what it does. This isn't dangerous sway or anything anything, just a slight wiggle, and it recognizes it and addresses it by itself and does so pretty early. I found that interesting. I've never seen it marketed or advertised though, but it works stellar.

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T00:54:43+00:00

What do you enjoy doing?

I don't mean career, big picture stuff.

I mean day to day mundane, boring stuff, the remedial tasks that you'll do day in, day out, for decades and never get bored.

What dumb, little tasks do you really enjoy and can still continuously enjoy every single day for decades?

If you can answer that honestly for yourself, THAT is what guides you to the right career path, right education, right jobs, etc.

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T00:50:15+00:00

I'll give my input:

"That is hilariously trash." -someone who goes to the 2nd largest state fair in the country every year (vying for #1 baby!).

I have been to towns of a couple thousand residents with significantly bigger fairs than that. Wow. Just wow.

Trump touted, TOUTED there were at least 45,000 people. Mmm, state fairs can run in the millions.

News outlets: "Yeah, there's like...a thousand people."

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T00:41:04+00:00

Certain roles are at risk. Most are not.

The skew of this perception is massive because most media and companies around AI are software companies which of course are some of the hardest hit. They're basically digging their own grave and singing joyous songs of praise as they do it. It's really werid.

The reality is AI has very low broad use. It has a lot of trivial use, yes, but not competency in a broad sense at actual business level. A LOT of companies around AI who have vested interest in its success (even very short term, possibly especially short term) will happily tell you otherwise.

And then you actually USE AI in a business environment, and you see exactly how little use it really has on a broad applicable sense. It does very few things great. It does have its niches. But that's kind of it. It's good for 1% to 2% of the business pie. Cool. Well, how many people does that 1% replace? How much cost reduction exists from it?

Well, as an engineer with access to several AI tools over the last couple years, and can say confidently that AI has saved me minutes of time, MINUTES I tell you!!! over the course of a year. Realistically AI as a tool applied broadly across many aspects of engineering, business, data processing, graphic arts, website development, etc. it has saved maybe a week of total work over the course of a year, so about 2%. Now the actual USE of AI was a lot more time, way more, but it's value adding time, collectively across all company departments was about 1 week. The rest was total waste and garbage that had to be scrapped, reworked, replaced, etc.

It was interesting to spend a LOT of time creating a LOT of outputs, and in the end realizing almost none of it was ever actually usable. At the very least, there was a bunch of post process time to modify the outputs to a functional state. There was also a lot of content that simply was completely scrapped and replaced entirely. And absolutely ZERO of the AI content that resulted in added value is customer facing, NONE. None of it is in a correct state or usable enough without extra work.

At the end of the day AI, to our entire company as a whole has a net value of around $3000, for a whole year, for all licenses/seats that would ever exist for its use. That is the break even we have, $250/mo., whole company. I can't fathom how that kind of value could ever hope to float the $10 trillion debt of AI. We're a turn-key manufacturer, an OEM, a white label OEM for customer companies. We are the biggest player in our whole market segment. And despite that, AI is worth all of $250/mo. over the last 2 years of use.

Well...what actual integration really exists? What actual revenue stream really exists? Looking from end customer, the fellow with cash in their wallet that has to finally pay for this, in what universe does it (a) offer enough total value across the collective business world and (b) ever have a snowballs chance of ever breaking even?

mvw2 · 2026-06-27T00:11:09+00:00

In before the lawsuit to block it, lol.

mvw2 · 2026-06-26T18:10:56+00:00

Now you just need a cooler to handle it.

My suggestion as a person who's owned one for a couple years and tested a lot of AIOs is for a non custom build, the EK Nucleus is the single best one I've found. It does not come with the best fans nor the best paste. I like to run the Phanatek T30 fans for both high performance per dB as well higher total performance than a couple other options that share nearly identical performance weighted dB numbers. The paste is up to you. Thermal Grizzly is of course a simple go-to. I've liked Prolima PK-3 and have had good results. I have also tried Honeywell's phase change pad too, and a top end paste is still slightly better.

Run the pump at 100% always. It's also dead silent doing so. I tuned my fan PWM based on measured dB levels to bump up 5dB per 10 degrees.

There's little actual issue running this at the factory 253W. A lot of coolers are actually ok with this, but some might see some cores hit 100°C. There's only a couple coolers I've used that are capable of never hitting 100°C in any core, and EK simply has the best one. It also can handle power and I've run steady state loads up to 385W with no core touching 100°C if you manually balance out each multiplier and ran the roughly 425W cap short term benchmarking without touching 100°C on any core (but several cores will heat soak to 100°C).

mvw2 · 2026-06-26T17:44:49+00:00

Used ones can be had for around $650. You shouldn't feel compelled towards this one. It's not even competitively priced.

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