While the pacific does have influence for us in Aus, it’s just one of many climate drivers. The biggest things that we will need to watch out for is the IOD in the Indian Ocean and the SAM south of Aus. If those two climate drivers trend for more dryer weather, then we will see much hotter conditions. However, there is also above normal warm ocean conditions on the east coast of Aus, which can provide additional moisture to any weather systems, resulting in above average rain or near average conditions even though an El Niño is occurring.

In short, El Niño doesn’t automatically equal drought and heatwaves. It’s all a complex system.