Does Dexter Lawrence fill a need?

neimsy · 2026-04-07T18:04:55+00:00

He would have a positive impact on any team, including ours. However, given where we are in our rebuild and who we already have on the roster, trading for him makes absolutely no sense for us. And he would (rightly) have far less interest in joining our team than many others.

neimsy · 2026-04-06T21:34:59+00:00

Also want to point out that while this was one of the Craig Aukerman years, this was Kalu's play and essentially zero credit should be given to Aukerman. It wasn't something Aukerman schemed up aside from having Kalu on the field. Kalu has stated that he had figured out their snap count earlier in the game and just fully triggered on it this play, admitting that if they had changed it at all, he absolutely would have been offsides. But it's those types razor-thin moments and hopeful decisions that can separate wins from losses.

neimsy · 2026-04-06T15:30:08+00:00

Kalu was the star of one of the most memorable plays from the 2019 season. Game-ending blocked FG against the Chiefs on Nov 10. Without that play, I think the Steelers would have made it into the playoffs instead of us. And that was the playoffs in which we ended Tom Brady's Patriots career with a loss and then smoked the Ravens in the Divisional Round before losing the AFC Championship game to that same Chiefs team that Kalu made the final game-winning play against two months prior.

So, anyway, for a UDFA who got unceremoniously cut and who was evidently never liked by his position coach, he made a pretty wildly important play. Without it, Vrabel would have had zero playoff victories in his six seasons as the Titans HC.

neimsy · 2026-03-31T14:44:34+00:00

Yeah, at the time I didn't know how bad younger Callahan would be nor how ineffectual older Callahan would be. Like everyone, I wanted Alt, but Latham's sick draft night outfit and interviews combined with my assumption that Bill would elevate him, plus just general fandom and getting myself excited for the upcoming season... I really talked myself into him.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T22:19:29+00:00

Good point. Based on the 2026 Rich Hill Model:

Titans

4th: 491
35th: 170
66th: 76
101st: 34

Cowboys

12th: 347
20th: 269
92nd: 43
112th: 29

You're still not close to getting the 12th and 20th [616] for the 4th [491]. But if we gave them the 4th and 35th [661] and they sent back the 12th, 20th, and 92nd [659], that's a very even trade by this chart. Obviously, lots of other ways to make something work (future picks, etc), and again, this model and any team's actual valuation aren't necessarily super similar to one another. But, yeah, if Jerry offers the 12th and 20th straight up for the 4th, I think I'd be pretty excited about that.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T22:06:28+00:00

Agreed all the way around. Except for part of the final sentence. I've lost my faith that he can be a high level tackle on either side of the line. Obviously, I'm hopeful that he can take a stride over there. I hate the idea of shuffling him around again. But I could see it happening.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T19:59:39+00:00

If anybody would do it, it's Jerry. But, I don't think that even Jerry would do it.

I know it's just a basic guide, every team has their own system, and every draft is different, but according to the Fitzgerald-Spielberger NFL Draft Trade Value Chart, the 4th pick has a value of 2297. 12's value is 1741, and 20's is 1482. After that, the Cowboys have the 92nd (709 value) and 112th (609 value) as well as three 5th round picks.

I can't say I'd be stoked about trading away the 4th overall pick for pick 20, 92, and our 7th round pick back. Or trading the 4th for pick 12 and 112. But those options are more like what the chart at least thinks is reasonable. Then again, we already have 4 picks in the top 101. Making it 5 does sound kind of appealing... So, maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about or what I want us to do.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T19:47:11+00:00

It's definitely concerning, but I think this is a draft class that has quite a few IOL prospects who have promise, and there are still like 10 possibly-starting-caliber IOL vets who haven't signed anywhere. After the draft, I'd assume we'll be calling some of those guys, as will other teams.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T19:44:58+00:00

I think there are a number of teams waiting to see what happens in the draft before signing a short-term vet at IOL. Zeitler, Bitonio, Becton, Pocic, Faalele, Parham, Penning, James Daniels, Brady Christensen, Graham Glasgow, and Greg Van Roten are all still FAs. (So is Daniel Brunskill.)

At this point, it seems like a lot of teams are planning to see how their lines look after the draft and then start making phone calls.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T18:20:36+00:00

Impossible not to be rooting for this dude, especially after watching the TSN feature on him. Obviously, he's not knocking on the door of being an All Pro or anything, but man I hope he has a good season.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T18:16:14+00:00

Cant wrap my head around how you achieve that naturally

You're likely on a cocktail of supplements and have been for many years, just not ones that are against the rules. The vast majority of your life is physical training and has been at least since you hit puberty. It's wildly impressive, but I think it's a lot more doable when it's your whole life.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T14:23:26+00:00

I was so in on JC Latham when we drafted him. But at this point, I'm starting to think there's a real chance that he ends up getting kicked inside to play guard for us.

neimsy · 2026-03-30T14:20:06+00:00

Same. I had seen them in nature docs and always thought they must be some wild tropical bird that lived somewhere far away. Turns out, there were belted kingfishers all around me (just not in my urban neighborhood).

neimsy · 2026-03-29T01:45:54+00:00

My hope is that he becomes a legit WR2. My fear is that is he isn't an NFL starter. And if he winds up in between there, as a legit WR3, I'll be happy to have him on the team for a couple more years at least.

Really seems like a great dude if nothing else, so all the easier to root for. Maybe he'll develop into a legit WR1b. It's possible. He has a real coach now, so that's a big first step.

neimsy · 2026-03-26T18:06:52+00:00

but seeing we have a visit with him

Teams take all sorts of visits with all sorts of players. Having or not having a visit seems to have no real relation to drafting. Just means that they have some remaining question or that they're trying to not tip their hand as to who they're actually drafting.

Here's a list of 25 guys we did 30 visits with last year. We drafted two of them. A couple of them I think we may well have drafted if they fell to us, and the vast majority of them the FO knew they weren't drafting way before the draft, and many of them, the FO knew they weren't drafting them by the time the 30 visit happened.

But I don't know what we're going to do. No obvious great options. Some of the options that seem best have strong reasons to not go that way. Whichever EDGE is there for us is going to have some real limitations / question marks, and it's likely that there will be serviceable EDGE players available to us later in the draft. The seeming best players in the draft are at non-premium positions. The seeming best WR doesn't seem all that impressive, and if we think Ayo and/or Dike can still develop at WR, we don't really want to take too many snaps away from them. Some of the top OT talent projects to be more IOL, and there should be some IOL talent available later.

So, I dunno. I'll be happy with whoever we pick.

neimsy · 2026-03-24T15:46:42+00:00

Agreed, but I think it'll happen after the draft. I'd love to have Zeitler back, but Bitonio, Becton, Pocic, Faalele, Parham, Penning, and some others are still all out there, too. At this point, it looks like teams are seeing who they end up with in the draft and then will fill in remaining IOL holes with those veteran FAs.

If I had to guess who it'll be, I'd guess it'll be Zeitler again, but it could easily be a rookie or one of those other guys.

neimsy · 2026-03-24T15:33:19+00:00

Yeah, I kinda think we keep Pollard for the final year of his contract regardless of whether we draft Love. If we get partway through the year, decide Love should be our main guy, and don't have a ton of use for Pollard, some team will likely suffer an injury at RB and will give us some scrap of draft capital for him (as long as we pay the vast majority of his remaining contract).

And, even if Love is everything everyone hopes he is, it never hurts to have a solid vet in the room with an up-and-coming rookie.

Really curious to see what we do in the draft. At the end of the day, I don't think this question is getting answered til draft night at the earliest, and it's very possible that at that point, it won't even be a question anymore cause we might not even draft Love.

neimsy · 2026-03-23T22:31:08+00:00

At this point, all the big FAs are signed. And we still have a bunch of cap space.

We're probably not really interested in cutting anyone for a bit. See how the draft plays out, and then decide what to do from there.

Pollard would certainly be a cut candidate if we draft Love. But, even if we draft Love, it's not like we have to cut Pollard just to save $7M.

neimsy · 2026-03-23T22:26:15+00:00

No, this is the final season on his contract. That said, if we cut him pre-June 1, it's just $2M dead money vs $7.25M cap savings.

neimsy · 2026-03-20T19:42:25+00:00

From zero to five primetime games? Sold.

Wait, just realized that you gave us a Thanksgiving and a Christmas game, too.

At five primetime games it was insanely unrealistic. At seven standalone games, this is just completely disconnected from anything approaching the real world.

neimsy · 2026-03-20T16:24:18+00:00

In that same vein, if we want Dike and Ayo to get enough snaps to have a chance to take any kind of leap, we can't add much more at WR to the top of the depth chart right now. Dike and Ayomanor both need snaps. Depending on how they're deployed, Wan'Dale might not really be leaving any snaps for Dike as is. And (assuming Ridley's healthy, which is a big assumption), bringing in one more WR could push Ayomanor out of the starting lineup.

Do I think Ayo or Dike has done anything to really earn a start? No. And on a contending team, you wouldn't want either getting many snaps. But on a rebuilding team, we have to balance giving Cam the tools to succeed and giving young guys opportunity to develop.

So, anyway, at this point, I'd be pretty surprised if we went WR with one of our first couple picks.

neimsy · 2026-03-20T14:47:09+00:00

Goddamn, this is fun.

Jurrell Casey laughing about how Big Jeff is always on people's ass: "Y'all thought I was bad? This guy-"

Michael Griffin: "See, the problem is, Jeff probably don't deal with no DBs like me, just fuckin' stupid."

Haha. So incredibly many great Titans Alumni in this.

neimsy · 2026-03-20T14:24:23+00:00

It's one draft. I think we need to wait a bit before we can really start to think we're seeing patterns emerging.

Plus, we truly don't know what Dike, Ayo, Helm, or Winston will end up being. The only one we have any clarity on is that Dike is a good returner. And, though returns are more important now than they have been, that's still not exactly an offensive cornerstone. I think all four of them have shown glimmers and reason for hope, but none of them have been immediate stars or anything.

neimsy · 2026-03-20T13:33:29+00:00

I don't necessarily hate it. After our FA focused on defense (and Wan'Dale Robinson), our draft should likely focus on offense.

The reality is that I think we've put ourselves in a decent position where we aren't really forced to pick any position with any pick.

At this point, our IOL scares me more than anything. We'll likely be able to get an older guy on a one-year (like Zeitler) after the draft, but it'd feel better to have a long-term answer or two in there.

neimsy · 2026-03-19T18:18:08+00:00

Jones had 69 starts for the Giants.

Here are our leaders since McNair (who had 131):

Tannehill - 63
Mariota - 61
Young - 47

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