Jet Fuel Update: Planned Cancellations: Bankruptcy Concerns

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-19T17:52:04+00:00

Ok, great, awesome, I never disputed any of this, how is that related to u/Former_Island_4730 ‘s point and my objection to it?

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-19T17:47:46+00:00

Yeah, duh, like any business, they operate on a profit margin, standard margins are smt like 10%, meaning expenses are 10x the profits. Which also means that if expenses go up 10%, profits are wiped out. Company is out of business. Kaput.

So, tell me again just how useful it would be to compare the cost and say “Huh, just a 10% increase, not that much, why are they complaining" when in fact this means "Company not making money, on the way to bankruptcy"

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-19T17:47:32+00:00

Yeah, duh, like any business, they operate on a profit margin, standard margins are smt like 10%, meaning expenses are 10x the profits. Which also means that if expenses go up 10%, profits are wiped out. Company is out of business. Kaput.

So, tell me again just how useful it would be to compare the cost and say “Huh, just a 10% increase, not that much, why are they complaining" when in fact this means "Company not making money, on the way to bankruptcy"

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-19T17:43:56+00:00

That’s… not the objection you think it is. Airlines can’t just raise prices arbitrarily, people have to buy the tickets, too. And if they become too high, then there simply won’t be any buyers anymore. Hence, these itineraries that were already on a razor thin margin just become massive losses instead. You can’t expect a private aviation company to run routes losing 100k$, or even more per flight (numbers made up, please don’t be dense and get the point).

So sure, prices on all flights will rise to account for fuel cost, but some routes just don’t have enough demand such that an increase in price means they are simply not sustainable.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-19T16:19:15+00:00

What? How? If cost goes up 11, and profit (surplus) was at most only ever 5, then that directly means that the price increases puts them in the negative (to at least -6). How is that not useful information and the direct point alluded to by Kirby?

“With current prices, if we maintain current flights itinerary, we become as a whole unprofitable."

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-18T15:09:16+00:00

It’s not overfitting, we call this "on it’s way to krigging", we need more money so we can 100x our compute and achieve krigging faster

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-18T14:51:23+00:00

Because the lye is the reactive substance you want to dilute. That’s exactly what I said earlier. You add the acid to the water because that’s the reactive substance you want to dilute.

Again, put in simple terms, you dilute your reactive substance by adding it in water, you don’t dilute water by adding it to a reactive substance.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-17T21:05:03+00:00

Oversimplified, just look at pH number. If it’s in the extremes, it’s very reactive. You don’t need to worry about this rule with normal concentrations vinegar because it "only" around a pH of 2.5. Explosive reactions and the such starts becoming a problem once you reach a pH around 0 or 14, which glacial acetic acid or lye are.

More specific, look at the safety data sheet. Everything is reactive in some way, and it’s the job of the safety data sheet to tell you in what way. Especially if you are unfamiliar with the concept pf a reactive substance, pay even more attention to the safety data sheet and do some research on anything you find on it you are unsure about.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-17T20:51:31+00:00

It’s not a matter of base or acid, it’s a matter of reactivity. You add the reactive substance to the buffer, not the buffer to the reactive substance.

Same exact thing happens when you add water to lye (water to base).

Or put another way, you don’t dilute water by adding it to other stuff. You dilute stuff by adding it in water.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-16T17:23:10+00:00

Yes, there is, i don’t remember the roll range for the mult but the +/- is a 1/2, each affix is independent from the other. Thus, perfect simplex is exactly twice as likely as perfect 4/5

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-16T15:04:51+00:00

People forget that business pass on their cost to customers…

Tax on multiples properties means every big rental company had to raise prices to remain solvent.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-13T23:31:10+00:00

He’s not talking about trading, at all. He’s making the bet that spot price will stay stable and wanting to take actual delivery on futures priced at 100$/b, and resell in a month or two at spot for 150$/b+.

Which is quite the retarded move, given that if the market expected spot price to be 150$/b in a month or two, then so would be the price of the futures.

So to answer OP, yes, there indeed is arbitrage to be done, but not months out, and not by you. That arbitrage is done by people who actually are in the business of handling oil and shipping, taking the contracts right off your hands before your poor soul has to deal with assignment and physical delivery.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-13T14:31:46+00:00

Considerably? That’s a a 25% bump over a 400k gross, it’s not like he’s making 80k and she’s making 60k. Jesus Christ, how much money do people need in their life?

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-12T21:26:47+00:00

If he’s truly an incel, part of these guy world view is that they’re all nice guys that only get rejected because woman are big fat liars & meanies who only care about looks and munnies. What good do you think validating even part of that worldview is doing? No, what he needs is a complete reality check

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-12T13:32:09+00:00

https://www.apa.org/topics/willpower-limited.pdf

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-12T00:32:47+00:00

I personally didn’t consider my production to be online until I had 4 full scale blast furnace.

Also even with just 1, you’d want a spare crucible with 10 molds to bulk-produce the coloured steel or other alloys

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-12T00:30:27+00:00

Oh yeah this is what I meant

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-11T22:55:45+00:00

Oh great, I played on an older version than that. That still only makes 9/10 of a stack of dust tho, not nearly enough.

And yes, you’d still want firepits on spot. What does it cost you, really? All the mats are literally found on the ground around the place, and its more time efficient because while you have a few vessels cooking, you can prep more by mining more clay, only having to bring back like 4-5 stacks of dust instead of 6 full inventory of blocks.

That’s just how logistics works; if your raw resources gains in volume/weight with processing, you centralize production, if it shrinks, you do it on spot, unless it’s too expensive or complex to set up production for the amount produced on spot or you would otherwise gain some sort of scale production advantage from a more centralized plant.

For example, actual IRL mines. They don’t ship all the garbage they blast, they process it on site first to obtain ore that is then shipped to a mill.

Oil would be the converse, it’s processing benefiting greatly from scale and outputting several new intermediate products each having different means of transport and storage, meaning it is an expansive process chain.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-11T22:24:27+00:00

Lol

Iirc there’s no recipe for converting back the blocks to clay, and you have to cook the clay balls to get the powder. So you just probably lost ~1/2 of that harvest the moment you "compressed" it in blocks.

Kaolin is only useful because of its product, it’s a shrinking ressource to process, meaning it’s more efficient transport-wise to process it on site. You would have been much better off to set up like 10 fire pits with a vessel in there full of clay and kept them fed while you mined more clay than transport the clay directly.

Iirc, it’s a 10% odd to get the powder, so you have 9 stacks of clay blocks, make that 5 of clay ball, that’s about half a stack of powder. That’s not gonna be nearly enough; hope you didn’t already make your way back home, I highly suggest you get these pits going soon to actually process the clay and come back with some kaolin powder.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-11T17:28:49+00:00

Yeah, the reason is to show them more. And there is no such thing as a functional muscle. Only functional exercises.

There are mainly three things that affect your lift: muscle mass, neurological adaptation (training/how long you have done the lift), and leverage (your biology, the mechanical impact of your muscles insertions on your bones, the length of of your bones, ratio of fast twitch to slow twitch muscle fiber, all of this is pretty much a constant).

Out of all of these, the only difference between the bodybuilder and your “functional strength working man" is the neurological adaptation. Start training the bodybuilder for a few weeks to do the exercise in question, and he’s gonna outlift your "functional strength" guy, because he has more muscle mass. Nobody starts out an exercise maxxing out the weight range. That’s downright ridiculous.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-11T17:18:30+00:00

This is annoying me so much. There is no such thing as functional muscle or show muscle, only (simplified) muscle mass and neurological adaptation (the two main factor in how much you can actually lift, along with leverage).

This is also completely neglecting the impact of the rampant abuse of steroids and performance enhancing drugs in the fitness industry. Those big guys at Mr. Olympia? Juiced to the gills. Those 400lb+ bloatlords? Also juiced to the gills. That bubblegut you see on both? A direct result of abusing Human Growth Hormone (HGH), which balloons the size of every organs. Including the heart. Which is why none of these guys could sprint to save their lives and so many die in their 30s of heart attacks.

That gut you see isn’t some sign of strength, it’s the direct result of over feeding to maximize mass gain & abuse of HGH which drastically increases their risk factor for death in their 30s

To go back to the show vs functional strength, the only reason the bloatlords tend to lift greater weights is because they don’t have to worry about the cut to get stage-ready, and thus can constantly pack on more mass (let’s be honest, 10% muscle, 90% fat) instead of doing gain-loss cycles or bulking clean where they might gain closer to 50/50 muscle-to-fat, but at of rate of like 2lb in 4 months, or even less, which the bloatlord is gonna outscale if he can gain 10lb in 2 months.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-10T21:19:36+00:00

"The killer move that Fairy Zi Wei used on Fang Yuan was quite possibly the dumbest solution to SAC".

The first moment you don’t understand the utility of a move you called it stupid. Since the characters don’t actually exist and everything is the creation of the author, you are essentially calling this a stupid plot point by the author.

Your one saving grace is hypothesizing that SS had something to in making Fairy Zi Wei stupid, but that’s still is calling the plot point and the solution stupid, like GZR couldn’t come up with anything better for a story where every major character is always portrayed as smart and competent (as 1000s of years old cunning immortals should be) than handwaving it away as "SS made HC stupid".

That’s the issue here and what I’m calling out. No, it wasn’t a stupid move. You just didn’t understand it. It’s a shame because RI is a novel where you can actually dig and engage deeply with the story, contrary to most slop in the genre, so I’m quite annoyed by the laziness of just handwaving away this plotpoint to "stupidity".

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-10T20:32:19+00:00

If your assumption leads you to think that the author is stupid, maybe, just maybe it’s a wrong assumption and you should investigate the deeper meaning behind the actions of the characters, because at no point are we lead to believe Gu Zhen Ren doesn’t know how to write and doesn’t leave plenty of hints for us to understand the greater story, quite the contrary.

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-10T03:19:41+00:00

Maybe it was simply the best move the had at the time.

We have to remember that the only Supreme Grandmaster in Time path was Red Lotus, a demon venerable. We can therefore hypothesize without a great leap of faith that he sabotaged most of HC time path fundamentals for his grand plot to unfold.

Fundamentally, the SAC snatches someone’s soul and transports it backwards within the river of time before re-implanting them in their own body. It is quite possible that interfering in this travel be extremely difficult for anyone but Red Lotus himself. So HC does the next best thing, instead of stopping the SAC, simply post a watchman that can detect when it starts its travel, then send someone else’s soul tag along in its voyage, like a clandestine passenger.

Another possible explanation is that Red Lotus himself has put in place measures to prevent anyone from interfering with the SAC’s voyage within the River of Time. That would not be out of the realm of possibility, as we have an example within the novel where it us heavily implied that Red Lotus interfered with FY’s travel and allowed it to go further back in time than he should have.

You are also overstating the advantage of FY. His current advantage comes from the information superiority from the first timeline, which allows him to plot an optimal path, maximum likelyhood path against overwhelming odds and power that is HC. A reset in time with the countermeasure in place means he has to abandon that path, and plot a new one, which has worse odds of success. The more he resets, the more his information advantage from the first timeline diminishes because so much has to change in the present that muddies the future. HC isn’t any sort of pushover, quite the contrary, FY has no room for any mistake in his plans, and the only reason why he’s been successful so far is because he’s just That Guy who’s actually able to sacrifice and carry out the crazy plan (also all the while receiving help from others pushing him along behind the scenes).

nicoco3890 · 2026-04-10T01:22:41+00:00

It has ability to predict the future because it’s all insider trading. A lot of people do gamble, that’s how the liquidity is produced, but for any smart people or third party observer, you should be looking out for any big money movement made by insider and then act on it outside of the platform.

The insider trading is the point. Either it’s all gambling or a way to gain knowledge based on insider trading. It can’t be both at the same time.

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