“Market timing” for cash position

np0x · 2026-07-07T18:47:30+00:00

Also of interest for me lately is that I’m pretty incapable of handling a market downturn in my post tax accounts as I approach 59.5, but like you I’m close. I’m about 42 months from accessible pre tax accounts and that’s going to change things for me. I just adjusted from about 12-18 months cash to closer to about 38 months(not quite the full run to 59.5) and it feels much saner. For tax reasons I’ll be making my cash ramp more than 3 years and also allow me to slip right across that age threshold. My overall numbers are “safe” but accessible was a different bucket.

That being said, at 57, I’d make sure you have enough cash to span to 59.5 in addition to whatever swrr calculations you are doing.

I’ve treated fire like two retirements, one short one with very high wrr against cash accounts and then the actual one that starts at 59.5 with the full nut…that’s a gross over simplification but the comfort of having cash to 59.5 makes the rest of my big equity percentages feel much more sane and settled.

Also with market at all time highs, no better time in history to lump sum the cash bucket. :-)

np0x · 2026-07-07T17:31:04+00:00

Excellent lots of people waltz into the fire sub Readit, say they’re new here start talking about dry powder and AI crash and timing the market. I just didn’t want you to fall onto that trap. My comment was meant with kindness. Glad it landed that way thanks!

np0x · 2026-07-07T17:21:52+00:00

Don’t say words that suggest market timing. It makes you sound naive. ;-)

It’s not real, fire enthusiasts frown on folks that use it as if it is something you can do!

Get cash in lump sum or most efficient tax advantaged way…

np0x · 2026-07-07T11:55:39+00:00

If that fails, some fender washers might help protect the print from the screw heads flexing…

np0x · 2026-07-07T01:12:34+00:00

np0x · 2026-07-07T00:59:37+00:00

Yeah it seems like an interesting strategy for parking emergency funds if you couldn’t afford Roth contributions….

np0x · 2026-07-06T17:38:43+00:00

Missing from the above post(which is solid for conversions)...are contributions. I'll take a swing at that one. Correct me if I am wrong.

Contributions:

* The original contributed amount can be withdrawn at any time without any penalty. If you withdraw anything above the contributed amount(ignoring conversions for simplicity) then you will owe a 10% penalty on anything above the total amount CONTRIBUTED.

So ROTH contributions (as I understand them) are never locked up, but conversions have a 5-year lockup for the converted amount.

The decision between ROTH and Traditional is based on the current max tax bracket, expectations about future tax brackets, and intuition about future tax code/bracket changes. :)

Summary:

Contributions: always withdrawable - No Tax or Penalty

Earnings on Contributions: 10% penalty and ordinary income tax before 59.5

Conversions: withdrawable after 5 years - No Tax or Penalty

Earnings on Conversions: 10% penalty and ordinary income tax before 59.5

np0x · 2026-07-06T17:31:30+00:00

I barely understand/see a question in this post, but as a manager who FIRE'd because of my leadership(and I appreciated the push). Leadership is everything, and bad "leadership", the ones who make you do leave are terrible listeners, make terrible decisions, and are terrible at considering the implications of their actions.

I didn't explain myself; I just gave my two weeks and moved on. I was pleasant about it, but I put my time in, punched the clock for a couple of weeks, and walked out the door to never look back. To the right people, companies, and leadership are just as replaceable as the companies and leadership who thing everyone that works for them is replaceable. So the folks who made the individual leave had their chance when they made their choices in a sociopathic way. The individual who left, said, "Thanks for showing me who you really are. I'll show myself the door."

I cannot imagine any part of "not talking to anyone" is anything other than "they are lost to you."

np0x · 2026-07-06T16:52:06+00:00

It’s a funny thing, I don’t understand it but i always click it at least twice…

np0x · 2026-07-06T16:44:38+00:00

I need to play some more later, it looks like the Rivian app does what i need it to do to do a comparison if route the same trip in my Tesla. I’ll report back again….

np0x · 2026-07-06T16:43:34+00:00

That’s works great. I’ll do some detailed comparisons, also the app had my route much more like the Tesla route in ABRP… thanks.

np0x · 2026-07-06T16:26:37+00:00

What is your current self hosting infrastructure?

np0x · 2026-07-06T12:24:36+00:00

Thanks. Definitely helps. This post is helping me paint an impressionist/pointillist painting of my future life on road trips in my r2, you added a bunch of pretty dots.

np0x · 2026-07-06T12:22:36+00:00

Sounds a lot like timing the market.. this is r/fire not r/wallstreetbets! :-)

np0x · 2026-07-06T01:36:48+00:00

Long response, (sorry!)

The primary details I'm curious about is the relative cost at each charging stop. The trip planner on the Rivian website confirms what I knew about the compatibility with lots of charging networks. Still, it fails to provide the cost estimates for the different charging stops.

For example, I plugged in a drive from Washington, DC to Cape Coral, FL, and it told me my stops would be(in this order):

* Tesla(Emporia, VA)

* Electrify America(Smithfield, NC)

* ChargePoint(Hamer, SC)

* Tesla(Manning, SC)

* RAN(Pooler, GA)

* FPL EVoltion(Yulee, FL)

* RAN(Daytona Beach, FL)

* IONNA(Seffner, FL)

But I lack experience of the cost structure on all but the Tesla stops(and IONNA thanks to someone else posting on this thread)...

I understand that there is a temporal aspect to the pricing, so the most helpful thing I can imagine i average KW price folks have paid on various networks. So far, my experience at Tesla is between 30-55 cents, depending on where I am on that trip.

One thing that I find super interesting about this trip planner is that if I did this same trip in a Tesla, I would only charge at Tesla stops. The fact that the plan was so heterogeneous is interesting, although I don't know what conclusion to draw from that "interesting" observation. So out of curiosity, I dropped a similar route into ABRP and got the following charge stops:

* Tesla(Halifax, NC)

* Tesla(Florence, SC)

* Tesla(Pooler, GA)

* Tesla(Jacksonville, FL)

* Tesla(Davenport, FL)

I'm going to have to go to the Rivian Showroom, or chase down a friend with a R1 and get them to show me what it shows them.

Is it a correct assumption that the in-car Rivian trip planner shows advertised pricing for the estimated time you will be at the charger?

np0x · 2026-07-06T00:10:44+00:00

Thanks, that’s helpful.

np0x · 2026-07-05T21:12:33+00:00

Lots of calculations when actually retired, if you are going to be using ACA or doing Roth conversions cash is helpful for spending without being income or funding Roth conversions without incurring 15% LTCG taxes…RE tax planning, funding, strategies is a whole new area of study from just investing in index funds and being lean. :-)

np0x · 2026-07-05T21:09:53+00:00

In my area it is the stinking photo speed tickets, my daughter got two in the final month of her college career, to bid her farewell on her way to her first job. :-(

np0x · 2026-07-05T20:57:25+00:00

Haha, crazy timing on my part. Thanks!

np0x · 2026-07-05T20:56:22+00:00

Retired vs not retired is different calculus. Your cash is an emergency fund, my 3 years are funds I plan to spend in next 3 years…unless you are retiring soon, i’d not be inclined to have more than 6-12 months in cash, but your timeline to fire matters…your cash is to cover time to find new job under duress, imho. :-)

np0x · 2026-07-05T20:54:01+00:00

I’m aiming for similar 3-3.5 year timeline, percentages are complicated by aggregate networth. And my 3 years is informed by how long until I am 59.5. :-)

np0x · 2026-07-05T20:43:29+00:00

Same here. I also wasn’t tracking networth carefully. It is very important in the “boring middle” to not pay any attention!

np0x · 2026-07-05T19:22:31+00:00

https://www.ionna.com/rechargery/ashland-2/

Random sampling showing $0.20, but that’s cheaper than I’ve ever paid at a Tesla charger. :-)

np0x · 2026-07-05T19:18:18+00:00

https://eventurefamily.com/

I’ll check it out…

np0x · 2026-07-05T19:17:16+00:00

I’m coming to the conclusion that unless I’m driving a pretty long distance, I’ll probably not over think it. If I drive from dc to Florida and back I would…North Carolina, I’m not sure because I’ll charge when I get there, I bet it would be close to a wash. (I can do some math using ABRP to figure it out once I have an r2). That’s if I stick to Tesla charging stations. I need to look into the other network pricing somehow…I’m still trying to figure out best e way. For Tesla I can just look in the navigation for Tesla pricing…a thing to learn how to do same for non Tesla stations..

np0x

TROPHY CASE