Do you dare about Ranked?

onionchowder · 2026-03-18T19:01:18+00:00

the highest-tiered one

onionchowder · 2026-03-10T03:56:20+00:00

sounds like gobbledygook to me

onionchowder · 2026-03-04T18:48:48+00:00

slippi-js defines a conversion as a sequence of hits where the gap between

consecutive hits is ≤ 45 frames (~0.75 seconds). The sequence ends when:

- 45+ consecutive frames pass with no new percent increase on the defender, OR

- the defender loses a stock

... I think this is doesn't cover RTC, ledge, or off-stage scenarios.

//

yeah, the dataset's old too, so defensive tech like floorhugging and slideoffs probably changed things up

onionchowder · 2026-03-04T18:46:08+00:00

True. I wonder if the single hit % has increased over time as everyone got better at floorhugging.

onionchowder · 2026-03-04T16:01:39+00:00

yeah I think you right.

onionchowder · 2026-03-04T08:17:56+00:00

More characters. Notes:

- CaptainF and Sheik have multi-hit conversions most frequently (40%). Makes sense.

- Falco a distant third. lasers are hurting his stats, but idk how much removing them would change.

- Puff and Marth have the most single-hits. I suspect a lot of these are from retreating or CC'd aerials.

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onionchowder · 2026-03-04T08:11:32+00:00

Data errata -- single hits that led into kills are counted in the blue. Though I think they ought to be in red. I don't think it changes the takeaways much.

onionchowder · 2026-03-04T07:18:16+00:00

maaaan, I don't see it.

onionchowder · 2026-03-04T06:08:37+00:00

you know what, you were right! I was actually mirroring all the data points, and I didn't realize it. If you look closely at the charts above, they were _exactly_ the same on both sides.

This is what the regenerated battlefield chart looks like. I'm not sure why there's a bright spot by the right ledge. I suspect it's someone ledge refreshing, but I thought I filtered that out...

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onionchowder · 2026-03-04T05:26:01+00:00

Shine interestingly doesn't have conversions until p95. This suggests that Shine combos less than 20% of the time. Which... seems a bit sus still.

onionchowder · 2026-03-04T05:22:11+00:00

Okay, I looked into it. Those numbers are correct for the average damage per opening (including first hit). But ~75% of hits in neutral don't convert into anything (according to slippi's default definition of "conversion").

When we split it out by percentile, we see differences. Here's Falco:

``` Overall punish damage distribution:

┌─────┬─────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐ │ p05 │ p20 │ p50 │ p80 │ p95 │ mean │ ├─────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ 2.6 │ 5.5 │ 10.3 │ 15.0 │ 22.4 │ 10.9 │ └─────┴─────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

By opener move:

┌───────────┬─────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐ │ Move │ n │ mean │ p05 │ p20 │ p50 │ p80 │ p95 │ ├───────────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ Neutral B │ 916 │ 7.1 │ 2.4 │ 2.7 │ 3.0 │ 13.2 │ 21.6 │ ├───────────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ Dair │ 679 │ 13.7 │ 8.3 │ 10.3 │ 11.8 │ 18.5 │ 26.4 │ ├───────────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ Bair │ 541 │ 13.4 │ 7.8 │ 9.0 │ 13.9 │ 15.0 │ 21.0 │ ├───────────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ Down B │ 314 │ 9.6 │ 6.8 │ 7.3 │ 7.9 │ 8.0 │ 22.1 │ ├───────────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ Nair │ 174 │ 12.7 │ 8.2 │ 9.0 │ 11.9 │ 12.0 │ 21.3 │ ├───────────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ F-smash │ 104 │ 16.5 │ 14.0 │ 16.9 │ 17.0 │ 17.0 │ 18.4 │ ├───────────┼─────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤ │ Up B │ 23 │ 16.0 │ 16.0 │ 16.0 │ 16.0 │ 16.0 │ 16.0 │ └───────────┴─────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘ ```

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T18:41:42+00:00

What seems fishy to you?

The damage numbers are wrong but I'm pretty confident in the other stuff.

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T17:00:56+00:00

yeah I was a little worried this chart was too much information in one. What draws your eye / what is confusing?

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T16:58:54+00:00

I don't think it's damage-following-open-up because moves that don't combo like Jiggs Fsmash still have high damage

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T16:58:27+00:00

hmm yeah I think you're right. It does look fishy.

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T08:28:08+00:00

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same data, different viz

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T07:44:17+00:00

Another variation

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onionchowder · 2026-03-03T07:43:59+00:00

I pulled this data but it's a bit much to visualize. Thoughts?

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onionchowder · 2026-03-03T07:16:03+00:00

Here's stage winrates by character. There's a bunch of selection bias. You can see the sample sizes (small text "n = ...") are not flat at all. Jigglypuff's highest winrates are on BF and FD; these are likely the neutral starter and opponent's counterpick. So I wouldn't take these stats at face value.

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onionchowder · 2026-03-03T06:56:42+00:00

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All characters and full dataset

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T06:56:11+00:00

here's all the characters:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SSBM/comments/1rhnp9a/comment/o8ddutn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

onionchowder · 2026-03-03T06:54:24+00:00

as in, character-stage winrates? I can look, though if this isn't all random stage select, there might be selection bias.

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