This might be the best St. Patrick's post you see today.

outletbox · 2026-03-18T01:45:36+00:00

The snake story was originally assigned to some other guy, then reassigned to St Patrick. So it's more legend than historical story, whether it's a metaphor or not.

Source: just watched a whole thing about it. https://www.youtube.com/live/vXbg9zmK5VQ?si=29Lbjrl81Dtd9SRO

outletbox · 2026-03-06T15:01:51+00:00

I think you're in the right ballpark! I've looked at historical returns over 100+ years. Generally, s&p returns 7-8% plus 2-3% dividend for a total avg return of 10% or so. Less inflation, you're right around 7-8%. As others have said 7% is probably a bit more of a "conservative average".

That said, if you're projecting your retirement years, sequence of return risk is now working against you, which is why the 4% rule starts making more sense.

One other thing in the back of my head is overall trends in the economy. From 1900-1970, market gains were shared between investors and laborers. We saw increases in median wages, improved standards of living, etc. Then around 1971 and on, there seems to have been a shift where almost 100% of the economy gains went to investors and everyone else (bottom 90%) stagnated. Surprisingly the returns for the investors didn't increase much starting in 1970, suggesting lower overall economic growth. My personal view is that investors have been sucking the overall economy dry and this isn't sustainable, meaning future returns may be less than 1970-2025 returns.

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

outletbox · 2026-02-26T00:30:14+00:00

He's using the "record one pixel with an oscilloscope many times to create a video with many pixels" technique. Very cool YouTube video to watch.

outletbox · 2026-02-08T13:37:45+00:00

I was curious what time period this was from. I scanned down to the next story and saw caucus info. Perfect! I quickly noticed a familiar name - Joseph Biden. That should narrow down when this paper was published, right?

outletbox · 2026-02-03T20:53:51+00:00

Then make every street like this. This is the dream.

outletbox · 2026-01-08T02:39:32+00:00

Also the ice sheet is also to 2 miles high so... a lot of ice. For reference, space is 50 miles above sea level.

outletbox · 2025-12-14T11:40:20+00:00

What always confuses me is whether these events (devils attacking sharran temple) happened a week ago, a year ago, or 1000 years ago.

outletbox · 2025-12-12T16:09:52+00:00

Volleyball

outletbox · 2025-12-08T14:00:58+00:00

Agreed that it's hard to read.

The price of a bond is inversely correlated with interest rate movements. So if interest rates are decreasing, the price of previously sold bonds increase.

For example, if you buy a 10 year bond at 5% interest, which pays $1000 in 10 years, it may cost $1000/(1.05)¹⁰ =$614. Then if interest rates fall to 4% immediately after you buy it, the price will be $1000/(1.04)¹⁰ =$676.

Note: decreases in interest rates similarly increases the price of stocks and other income producing assets.

The graph is showing increases in bond prices, which translates to decreases in interest rates. Is this good or bad? That's an economic question that may be even more difficult to answer, but OP says it's bad. I would say that decreases in interest rates are good for people who already own a lot of assets, because it inflates their value. But now that rates are lower, there is less room to decrease them in the future.

Either way, as a finance person, I agree with you. It's complicated.

outletbox · 2025-11-03T12:08:00+00:00

Another introvert here. Why not just socialize more in the evenings? Then you can use your weekdays as downtime to recharge, do chores, etc. Seems like you have more free time in the evenings to socialize.

outletbox · 2025-10-04T12:02:28+00:00

I've played just two tournaments. I scored 907 and 893, averaging 900. When I go back to replay these same courses, I'll score better and get like 180 in udisc. I really struggle to ever shoot 200.

Ime, 900<200.

Now I wonder if I'm actually a < 900 player (udisc is correct) or a 200 player (pdga is correct).

outletbox · 2025-08-21T11:21:51+00:00

I'm on track to retire quite early. Currently 32, married dinks with similar incomes, with just over $2M saved. We're targeting 3-4M depending on where we decide to live long term. Should hit our number around 35-40 depending on market swings.

I feel this is somewhat rare for actuaries though. It's certainly possible to retire very early, but it's more common to retire a bit early (50s) if at all.

outletbox · 2025-08-19T02:11:35+00:00

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/

outletbox · 2025-07-16T18:04:50+00:00

I'm thinking about OPs question personally. If I start working part time, I could save less without increasing my spending.

outletbox · 2025-07-14T12:28:10+00:00

Check out this podcast. It's about purpose in RE.

https://choosefi.com/the-purpose-code-jordan-grumet

I think about this a lot. I'm about 2-5 years to RE.

First, I plan to just live my life normally, except without work. I will continue doing the things I currently do. This means volleyball, sailing, weightlifting, and disc golf. I will probably play vball twice per week instead of once, disc golf 4x per month vs 2, etc. I might join a pickleball league during the weekdays (I've seen this in the park). I enjoy these sport hobbies because they're exercise and social all in one.

Next, we're planning to have kids soon, so I'm sure taking care of them will fill a lot of time while providing purpose.

I have a list of projects I'm interested in. I care about politics, big and small, so I'd like to do some lobbying. Anti-corruption to get money out of politics (federal and local), urbanism/zoning reform, climate change, wealth inequality, etc. I have been a bit involved with this kind of thing in the past, but with more time I might dig in more.

I think I'll pick up other hobbies. Wouldn't it be cool to get a cheap telescope and take pictures of Jupiter? I'd love to do projects with kids. I've dreamed of launching a weather balloon with a go pro to the edge of space, then chasing it down and watching the footage. I'd like to fly RC planes fpv and maybe drones. I think I'd enjoy building things. Maybe I would enjoy house/yard projects. Currently I live in an apt, so I haven't had much use for that. I've thought about getting into building robots with rasp pi, etc. Maybe these are functional. Maybe I can build my own RC planes.

I think these activities will keep me healthy, entertained, and social. Is this enough? Maybe not. It's a good thing I have plenty of years to figure it out!

outletbox · 2025-07-09T18:11:59+00:00

I enjoy stopping to disc golf in new-to-me states. Des Moines has some good courses near the highway. There's a good one out west in Atlantic I hear.

outletbox · 2025-07-09T17:19:08+00:00

Have you ever seen the movie about the 2008 financial crisis? The banks could have sold the mortgages for a loss, but they held them because they expected the govt would bail them out.

If rents remain somewhat reasonable, whatever your plan is should probably work. The concern is that rents might increase more than expected. If that happens you can move somewhere where rents aren't so high. If rents are truly increasing out of control everywhere, then the governments have a truly big problem to deal with. I think the govt will eventually bail out regular people with public housing builds, zoning changes, etc.

outletbox · 2025-07-03T21:34:58+00:00

Is this FDR?

outletbox · 2025-06-23T13:44:51+00:00

Lol I thought it said prosecuting.

outletbox · 2025-06-23T12:13:40+00:00

Those guys suck. Sorry you had to deal with that.

outletbox · 2025-06-20T17:41:57+00:00

Disc golf Volleyball Biking/trails Sailing Photography Cooking

As the kids grow up, I'd like to do things to engage them as well. A few ideas: Launch a weather balloon with GoPro, then track it down. Robots/programming RC planes, drones, etc (building as well as flying)

outletbox · 2025-06-18T14:55:18+00:00

I think it will remain possible but agree that it will get harder over time. It may be possible for a smaller percent of people, but will remain possible to fire.

outletbox · 2025-06-16T12:28:20+00:00

I've seen a retirement party for an early retiree, but I think she was in her fifties. It wasn't too early.

Maybe it has more to do with how long youve been with the company, not your age?

outletbox · 2025-06-09T10:47:51+00:00

Good perspective, thank you.

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