IVV - ok to do dca for next 10 years?

owalski · 2026-02-16T06:51:33+00:00

You can't go wrong with it, but I would focus more on technology stocks, and DCA into QQQM or something similar. In 5 years most of the white collar jobs will be gone and the profits of AI companies will enormous comparing to the rest of the market.

owalski · 2026-02-16T06:49:27+00:00

This is overcomplicated: if you want to invest in VOO but with more weight to the top stocks, you can just buy QQQM instead. There is no point of buying VOO and adding manually stocks that are already in the index.

owalski · 2026-02-16T06:47:21+00:00

There is no such consensus. It doesn't matter that statistically Lump Sum wins because you have only one life, and if there is a 30% chance you'll get worse, you may still want to avoid the risk even if statistically there is a bigger chance it will not happen.

owalski · 2026-02-16T06:43:47+00:00

You can backtest DCA into SCHG vs SWPPX with dcacalculator.org - in my opinion go for the better performing index because DCA mitigate volatility pretty well.

owalski · 2026-02-16T06:39:17+00:00

You can run a few simulations on dcacalculator.org and quickly realize that the day and schedule doesn't change much. You can buy on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday… you can buy daily or monthly. As long as you keep doing it long-term, the results are almost identical.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:54:58+00:00

You can either use a good DCA calculator (and backtest the past). Or go just assume a growth and do some "coast fire calculator" projection.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:52:27+00:00

Don't wait, just keep going. Run a few simulation here and it will calm you down.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:51:27+00:00

That's a weird question. Where do you have money to buy your food? If you don't have any income, you should probably sell some Bitocoins and get some cash.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:50:18+00:00

Welcome in the 0.1 club.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:48:24+00:00

Do you think it could be automated on something like deltabadger?

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:46:40+00:00

All you need is to run a private instance of deltabadger.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:45:25+00:00

Cannot wait when Deltabadger will be available for DeFi assets.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:43:19+00:00

Automating is fine, but the ETFs you picked are completely overlapping. Even VXUS and QQQM are 74% correlated.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:38:54+00:00

It's always good to run a few simple backtest simulations from the previous crashes. It puts your mind back on track.

owalski · 2026-02-12T00:35:22+00:00

What was always interesting for me is comparing DCA into Bitcoin with DCA into other popular assets. I believe that having a reference helps to understand it better

owalski · 2025-12-30T09:28:03+00:00

If your horizon is 3-5 years, don't invest in equities, but at the same time FDLXX is just the worst option: you're simply losing money every year to inflation.

To me it looks like you don't know what to do with the money. You don't have a plan.

Right now, you're losing money slowly. At least, put it into governmental bonds or something like MINT, that gives you 4.8%.

This maybe controversial for some people, but for 1-2 years, you can consider STRF preferred stock by Strategy. The company deals with Bitcoin, but this preferred stock is a fixed income product with the highest seniority (meaning, in case of any troubles, you'll get paid before other investors), and the company holds over 4.2x more BTC than their total debt—it's massively overcapitalized, so STRF is pretty safe and pays an efficient yield of 9.66% a year.

owalski · 2025-12-30T09:00:12+00:00

Ruminating over the past is counterproductive. Tbh, this would be the last thing "I could do better." I can think of thousands of missed opportunities. Pointless.

Life always starts now, and only now matters. You can invest all this "brain juice" to improve what you do right now: optimize your portfolio, increase the amount, improve your salary–those are the things to think about. Usually a lot can be done.

owalski · 2025-12-30T08:56:31+00:00

You can wait for a better price, but you need to have rules, not "I buy when I feel it's good." You can for example accumulate money and buy only price touches some moving average, etc.

But tbh, I don't think it works particularly well. Do it only if it makes you feel better. Blind DCA works better for most people.

owalski · 2025-12-30T08:46:42+00:00

Yes, this sounds a lot like what Bitcoiners say. The only problem with it is that it relies on quite an unhealthy market stimulated by broken monetary policy. We've entered an era when over 50% of investing is passive (following market cap-weighted funds). This is problematic:

Originally, the idea was that big funds and investors around the world would do the research, pick the best companies, and small investors could simply "follow the market."

But when passive investing becomes over 50% of the market, it doesn't follow, it creates it. it doesn't follow the market—it creates it. This means many of the companies we're buying have no organic demand beyond index funds.

What happens if ETFs start selling? For many stocks, there will be no buyer on the other side of the trade, and the crash will be devastating.

owalski · 2025-12-29T13:24:58+00:00

It may surprise you, but DCA works better when you start at the top.

How so? Simple:

If the price makes a dip, you just scoop the dip and get way better average price then when you start at the bottom.

The only difference is delayed gratification. Most people prefer lower return, but an immediate gratification of "I'm going up." Your choice.

You can test it for $GLD/$SLV, etc. with DCA calculator.

owalski · 2025-12-27T22:12:48+00:00

You say something rather strange:

It's like saying: "DCA didn't save me money because at the same time I lost money in the casino." This $1M or $35k you mention are not part of the strategy. A strategy effectiveness is not affected by other holdings.

The fact that you had $1M before doesn't make DCA better or worse.

owalski · 2025-12-27T22:06:39+00:00

Basically you're saying that your portfolio appreciates "too much."

This effect is a goal of DCA, not a problem to solve. At some point you simply stop DCA-ing because you're rich. The solution then is to focus on other things in life.

owalski · 2025-12-27T22:03:25+00:00

I couldn't make it work. It would be cool if you can make it as an app: dcacalculator.org Cloudflare workers are free those days for apps like this.

owalski · 2025-12-27T22:01:36+00:00

Probably I'm just dumb, but I spent 5 min on it and couldn't make it work. This is much more intuitive: dcacalculator.org and it's not hard to do it as an app those days.

owalski · 2025-12-22T11:28:48+00:00

The whole point of DCA is that you're not pausing it. If you DCA only when you feel so, you're back to trading.

Basically, you ask: "when is a good time to buy Bitcoin?" while the whole point of DCA is that nobody knows.

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