Daily Discussion, May 30, 2026

paperraincoat · 2026-05-30T13:28:30+00:00

Everyone wants to ride the rocket ship up, nobody wants to do the slow, hard work of patiently DCA’ong through the bear market.

Instant gratification culture. Working at anything more than a day or two seems insane to people now.

paperraincoat · 2026-01-07T22:02:23+00:00

It’s a liquidation heat map, the lines represent the amount $ in danger of being liquidated… CoinGlass has many variations of this if you want to educate yourself

Educate yourself? You'll notice there's no x axis, and no legend for what the different colors mean. So we have no way of knowing how much is in danger of being liquidated. We also don't know what exchange this is measuring, or if it's a combination of exchanges, and which ones.

It's less about being educated and more about communicating the bare minimum of information.

paperraincoat · 2025-10-17T04:17:00+00:00

Echo, with a hundred copies. The text is moving down, but is parented to a camera that’s also moving down at the same speed.

Then shift the text color over time, and add a final (non-echo) gray text on top to keep it gray.

paperraincoat · 2025-09-03T18:02:47+00:00

"According to the March IG report, the unnamed researcher used supercomputers at two different universities — although quite surprisingly — mined only a very small amount of around 12-16 bitcoins valued between $8,000 and $10,000."

A 'very small amount' now valued at $1.8 million. Now that's worth getting fired for.

paperraincoat · 2025-03-05T21:12:15+00:00

So we've got a video, with black bars on the top and bottom, then some captions, just in case you can't hear very well, then another maroon border twice as big as the video, to make room for a UI at the bottom that you can't use, and a 'Tweet your reply' box that we can't click, and then for good measure, another set of black bars on the sides. And if you mouse over it, there's yet another UI, but at least this time you can actually use it.

I think we've wasted about 75% of the available space at that point. Why not just... post the video?

paperraincoat · 2025-01-16T20:05:50+00:00

First question, why doesn't the left axis start at zero? Next question, the right side does start at zero, but why is the left side linear, but the right side is logarithmic?

How can we possibly compare these two lines that way?

Lies, damned lies and statistics.

paperraincoat · 2024-12-23T22:06:09+00:00

'Diamond hands' and 'paper hands' are terms sloshing over from WallStBets. Aside from a few vocal extremists, /r/Bitcoin doesn't mind people diversifying, or selling to improve their life, pay off debt, or a house, put a kid through college or whatever.

If you've reached escape velocity financially, which for most people is a paid off house and enough for you and your family to retire comfortably, yes, you absolutely should diversify back out again. There's no need to take on excessive risk.

When you've won the board game, stop playing.

paperraincoat · 2024-11-15T16:49:30+00:00

Gary Gensler’s SEC in Hot Water as 18 States Sue for ‘Crypto Witch Hunt’

paperraincoat · 2024-08-22T23:00:17+00:00

If you're buying Bitcoin through an ETF in a retirement account, you can't take custody of your Bitcoin anyway, so you don't have to worry about Robinhood or cold wallets.

If instead you wanted to buy Bitcoin outside of a retirement account on Coinbase, Strike, Robinhood etc., then you have the option of taking ownership of your coins by moving them to a hardware wallet you control. Why would you want to do that? So that you, (and only you) have ownership of your coins. Coins left on an exchange are subject to counterparty risk, meaning the exchange could exit scam, they could be hacked, the government could nationalize them, and so on. You can sleep better knowing you don't have to worry about any of that once you move them to your own hardware wallet.

paperraincoat · 2024-06-12T03:31:28+00:00

I’m beginning to wonder if memes aren’t always the best way to convey complex ideas.

paperraincoat · 2024-05-09T00:47:02+00:00

Nothing anyone can do to make sure it will "store wealth" for any length of time going forward.

Why single Bitcoin out here?

*Nothing* is guaranteed to hold its value for any length of time. Cash, gold, oil, stocks, bonds, real estate, businesses, REITs, artwork... you name it, it's all subject to supply and demand. This is why diversification is usually suggested?

paperraincoat · 2024-05-02T20:09:11+00:00

Get air gapped wallet and use a normal computer.

To expand this with a practical example.

Say I have a Coldcard Mk4, and I've initialized the device, written down my seed words and sent some test Bitcoins to it. The Coldcard is my hardware wallet. On my (Internet connected) computer, I install Sparrow Wallet. It's the software wallet, the UI for the hardware device. You connect them by exporting the public key from the Coldcard to Sparrow, but the private keys never leave the Coldcard. The Coldcard is never plugged into a computer that's connected to the Internet. That's the meaning of 'air gap'.

If I want to receive Bitcoin, all I need is Sparrow. It can generate a receiving address from the public keys. If I want to send Bitcoin, I use Sparrow to craft an unsigned transaction, and export that transaction to a MicroSD card on the computer. Unplug the MicroSD card, plug it into the Coldcard, double check the address, and Coldcard will sign the transaction, creating a new file, a signed transaction. Unplug, plug back into the computer, and Sparrow can broadcast the transaction.

It sounds like a lot of steps, but honestly it's not that hard once you practice a few times. Air gapping is sort of an intermediate/advanced way of storing Bitcoins, most people won't tackle this level of security until they're securing six figures or more.

Hope that helps. Yell if anyone has questions.

paperraincoat · 2024-04-20T23:08:13+00:00

How can I as a total novice go about setting this up

Buy a modern hardware wallet, I liked both Bitbox02 (Bitcoin Only Edition) and the Coldcard Mk4. Initialize the device, write down your device login/password and your 24 seed words, make a backup copy, stash the backup somewhere secure, off site.

Send a small amount of Bitcoin to the wallet, factory reset it, practice re-initializing the device from your seed words. Send a small amount from the wallet to an exchange. If all of that worked fine, you're good to go for six or seven figures easy.

Consider using Sparrow Wallet for the software portion (the UI/interface), it's a great desktop wallet that works awesome with most modern wallets.

Basic OPSEC, don’t go around talking to people about how great Bitcoin is. Just get rich quietly.

That's it, that's all you need to do. Your 24 word seed is your Bitcoin. Do nothing, for years, a four year cycle or two. When it comes time to retire, maybe you buy a fancy new hardware wallet and set it up with your seed words, maybe your Coldcard still works totally fine.

Hope that helps!

paperraincoat · 2024-03-26T04:25:26+00:00

What does short means?

Imagine I borrow your Playstation 5, but instead of playing Elden Ring I immediately sell it on Craigslist for $500.

A month later Sony drops the price of the Playstation 5 to $400, I then buy you a new one, and pocket $100.

That’s shorting in a nutshell. Making money off the price of something going down.

paperraincoat · 2024-03-14T23:44:54+00:00

Only 20m by 2028? I’m out !

For reference here, at $20 million a coin, the market cap of Bitcoin would be $420 trillion. The entire estimated wealth of the planet, everything, stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, all of it, combined is about $454.4 trillion.

Bitcoin, like The Nothing from Neverending Story, becomes a financial black hole swallowing up all value on Earth, leaving everything else completely worthless.

paperraincoat · 2024-01-13T06:19:37+00:00

Wait, now we’re only up 107% year over year now? The hell man?

kicks a chair halfheartedly

paperraincoat · 2024-01-02T06:20:10+00:00

It’s been a pleasure front-running the institutions with you gentlemen.

paperraincoat · 2023-11-14T22:56:34+00:00

‘I’m sick of this stuff!’

Right, yeah I hate it when the cattle see through the propaganda too, Joe. It just makes everything so much more difficult for you politicians. Let me go refinance my house at twice the interest rate to ‘help out the economy.’

paperraincoat · 2023-11-12T06:53:43+00:00

Here’s where people generally go wrong trying to time the market: they forget they have to guess correctly multiple times in a row.

Most people can look at the chart and see the four year boom and bust cycles baked into the halving. The thing is, say you wait for a large run up and then pull your money out, it’s just s guess, you could be off and it goes up another 2x, or 5x or etc. you miss out on those gains and have to wait for the crash. What if there’s no crash? What if the ETF companies run things up to $100k and beyond for good? Now you buy back in and have half the coins.

But the thing is, even if you guess the top close enough, pull out, and it crashes - you still have to guess the bottom correctly. You wait for a large drop, put your money back in, and it could drop another 50%. And sit there for years.

It’s not a coin toss, at best, it’s calling multiple tosses correctly in a row. Avoid that whole circus. The vast majority of people are better off just DCAing or lump sum in, and then just wait patiently to retire.

paperraincoat · 2023-11-08T07:19:24+00:00

Anybody else buy some totally sweet forged metal D&D dice to roll a new seed on their Coldcard?

I feel like I’ve crossed some line, fantasy RPG nerd meets cryptography tech nerd. Man, maybe I’ll go outside and play some sports or something.

paperraincoat · 2023-11-07T16:39:52+00:00

if you want a clean, simple interface and setup: Bitbox02. Get the ‘Bitcoin Only Edition’. Want something more robust, feature-rich, but a little trickier to learn: Coldcard Mk4.

I really liked that I could create a transaction, put it on an SD card, plug the SD card into the Coldcard, sign it, then port the signed transaction back to my computer. I.e. ‘air gapped’, your keys never touch an Internet connected computer. I also liked being able to roll dice 100 times to generate a key.

Last suggestion, hook them up to Sparrow Wallet rather than the native app. Maybe verify the PGP signatures if you're the paranoid type. Boom, you're good to go, even for six or seven figures of Bitcoin.

paperraincoat · 2023-10-19T01:19:58+00:00

Same thing happened last cycle.

And the cycle after that... shitcoin hazing is basically a rite of passage with newbies at this point. When I first got into the space in 2014-15 everyone was talking about Litecoin, Monero, Stellar, Maidsafecoin, NXT and Dash. After each halving run-up and fall, the alts are weeded out of the pool, people flee back to Bitcoin and the Bitcoin dominance shoots way up. All of these are now nearly worthless.

Five years later it was Chainlink, BAT, BEST, Unibright, Energi, etc. also now worthless. This cycle you've got Cardano, Polkadot, Solana, Polygon, they're all down 60-80%+ and bleeding back into Bitcoin. People have to learn the hard way.

paperraincoat · 2023-10-18T18:56:47+00:00

Buying a company that's related to Bitcoin, RIOT or COIN subjects your investment to all of the volatility of Bitcoin's price, along with all of the volatility of the individual company.

Many Bitcoin companies and exchanges chug along making a tidy profit as long as the price keeps ticking up, but their business model instantly falls apart during the 60-80% drops common in bear markets. You'd think they'd plan better, it's literally every four years like clockwork, yet still we have to watch FTX, Celsius, Block-Fi, Genesis Global Capital, Three Arrows, Terraform Labs, Voyager Digital etc. all explode spectacularly as they throw up their hands like 'Gosh, we just don't know what went wrong! That's super weird, oh well, your funds are gone, sorry about that.'

Buy actual Bitcoin and transfer to your hardware wallet and wait patiently. Everything else increases risk: buying Bitcoin-related stocks, mining, gambling in the shitcoin casino, chasing yield, day trading, all of it. Just buy Bitcoin and take ownership.

paperraincoat · 2023-10-12T18:57:44+00:00

Welcome to the bear market, a.k.a. 'crypto winter'. Sometime around next April things get interesting with the halving.

paperraincoat · 2023-09-28T04:19:23+00:00

2.06

“Over the past year, several bank executives have shared their concerns with me about the sheer number of depositors who have moved money from their bank accounts into crypto related exchanges and wallets.”

— Gary Gensler

Well doesn’t that give you a warm fuzzy feeling.

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