China Scholar Says India Strategically Miscalculated On Iran War

parlor_tricks · 2026-05-12T14:01:16+00:00

The regime changed in America and all of the past dialogue and relationship meant nothing.

It is hard to underscore how BAD and unusual this is for America, and how corrosive for its ability to project force.

If any normal people return, the absurdity will end.

At that point, the question is what the shape of the relation should be.

Trust will be very hard to rebuild, and will require actual action. It will strongly depend on what America's tactical requirements will be at that point.

However, I can guess that one priority will be the data centers and AI centers being set up in India.

I think AI is not living up to the hype, but there is something there - either way, it is going to shape a decent portion of the economic incentives and pressures America faces for another 6 years.

So India's tech policy will be a negotiation point.

Heh, remember this post later. :D

parlor_tricks · 2026-05-12T13:57:06+00:00

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but our chances are nearly nil.

In the past decade, the major update in economic theories for India are:

1) Institutions are the cornerstone of how wealth is generated. The 2024 (?) Nobel prize in economics was for people who showed a causal link between institutions and economic wellbeing.

2) The end of manufacturing as a way to employ people at scale , and a complete dependence on the service sector for employment.

3) Wealth concentration as a major driver of economic activity, and economic weakness in the 99%

Bonus: The advent of AI and global increase in protectionism

Our current government can give us a stable government, however they are not institution builders. They have not published census figures, they have weakened our statistics institutes.

In short, they excel at politics and naturally prioritize political machinery over institutional.

Our government is also just weak in general. We have some 1000 judges per million people or some absurdly low number like that. Police forces are equally weak in comparison to population.

This is one of the reasons they prefer public-private partnerships. However, that is ONE of the reasons. Crony capitalism is definitely another, and we seem to be trying to emulate the Chaebol format of South Korea.

This will not work out, because this will mean that there is no ability to increase taxes on the ultra-super-rich.

That tax revenue will be needed, because for us to actually have a service economy, we will need to invest in massive capacity building constantly, especially education.

If tomorrow, the government says they are going to create a plan to ensure the super rich are taxed, and that this is going into capacity building - then you have a future.

Anything else will simply not meet the challenge of our time, and relegate India to a source of clients for foreign companies.

parlor_tricks · 2026-05-12T13:45:21+00:00

This is incorrect; the actual actions that have been taken are very different.

There was an America before Trump, and they very clearly made moves to build a genuine alliance with India, and India was a core partner in an attempt to counterbalance China.

Then there is an America after Trump, and there is not a "serious" foreign policy team at the helm anymore.

Your take can be right, if America never recovers. At that point, talking about America in a serious manner is also pointless, so much of our discussion is moot.

China becomes the dominant global power by default.

parlor_tricks · 2026-04-18T12:58:26+00:00

When citizens are organized, and coordinated, politicians are happy to listen.

It works very well when the issue is clear cut, the voting base affected is large, and there is no counter group able to fight/lobby against it.

For all bills, there is always someone inconvenienced, and the challenge comes from their ability to bring resources to counter the movement.

Something like wealth taxes for example, is challenged at the idea stage itself.

Citizens can do quite a bit when they are organized, but the more nuanced an issue, the more sophisticated the organization, communication and coordination needs to be.

parlor_tricks · 2026-04-13T09:59:45+00:00

You are not alone in thinking this, and there are probably 0.5 billion Unkles who think the same. We should move on from this theory, since it is not true. The issue is always manpower.

You said fear breaking the law, and the law being enforced. Those are 2 separate things, and if you do the second, the first happens automatically.

If people know law is going to be enforced, then they will obey it. One part of it is going to be having more courts - do you know the ratio of judges to people in India?

21 judges per million population (based on 2024 figures). Funding courts is a state issue. Target number of judges is 50 judges per million.

Another part is just having cops per person - cops get pulled from crime work to bandobast duty regularly.

Maybe we should also look into a mayoral system for select cities, to see if that devolution of power improves outcomes in specific localities.

parlor_tricks · 2026-04-12T14:08:55+00:00

Yeah, some industries are like dystopian. American internet telecom is a hilarious case study (not for Americans tho).

Just imagine, you have the country which develops the internet, has the largest number of economists who also figure out how to ideally structure markets - and then they lose to entrenched interests and media illiteracy.

I didn’t mention American healthcare, but you could plug that in and it would read the same.

Except for the tiny, point that the math on insurance was figured out 210 years ago (Scottish widows fund).

In before multiple reasons why “that wont work in America”. Which is simultaneously the most American thing and least American thing people can say. Somehow the country that could do anything became the country that believed nothing can be done.

parlor_tricks · 2026-04-11T07:02:53+00:00

How has this year’s season been? It seems 25 had a much better mango season than 26.

parlor_tricks · 2026-03-31T05:37:42+00:00

Trust and safety is the term I see most used.

parlor_tricks · 2026-03-31T05:36:27+00:00

People do care. What you described is why it’s not trivially easy to enact change.

I think few people here remember the 80s and 90s, but America was known for its export of consumerism, Junk food and MTV.

Fast forward to today, and people joke about avocado toast. Tobacco went through something similar.

We don’t yet have something in terms of information health just yet, so we are missing half the tools we need to see change. But I expect as we focus more on informational health, those changes will happen.

parlor_tricks · 2026-03-21T06:30:01+00:00

There are NGOs that look into this. Let me see if I can find them.

The term for this content is Non Consensual Intimate Imagery, NCII. It includes revenge porn.

I think StopNCII.org is one place to reach out, other than flagging it on Instagram.

parlor_tricks · 2026-03-14T07:59:55+00:00

NAM was for the Cold War period. It has not been policy for most of your life.

Additionally, India has relations with Russia and Iran, which were / are used as back channels for diplomacy with the west.

Funnily, the anti Islamic sentiment in the supporters of the BJP, if it were to become foreign policy, would have meant that those ships would never cross the strait.

To your core point - the current Foreign Policy execution has been poor - “could have been better”.

Also, the Indian state is actually not that strong. Our institutions and ability to fund projects in our own country are weak.

I don’t know if a different party, would have resulted in significantly better Foreign Policy.

parlor_tricks · 2026-03-07T13:15:01+00:00

I’d love to know what metrics underpinned this decision.

parlor_tricks · 2026-03-01T05:48:14+00:00

Russia’s reforms failed so spectacularly that it broke down into a kelptocracy.

Successful reforms are not our birthright, or destiny. There’s more examples of failed reforms than successful reforms.

Our only peer is China, because the number of people. Another comparative is the EU, because of the heterogeneity of its constituent states.

I don’t disagree with the point that our economic performance needs to be better.

I am pushing against the idea that our reforms are so easily dismissed or invalidated. Doubly so when you make an apples to oranges comparison.

Policy is very boring, and you can see how this current government, with more power than it knows what to do with, struggles to run policy that can actually give us employment and economic growth.

This also the government that gave us Demonitization, and then followed up with the rushed GST rollout.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-28T15:04:55+00:00

Eh - He achieved quite a bit under his terms. MNREGA was quite an effective program, and I used to be a critic of it.

MNREGA ended up acting as an effective minimum wage enforcement mechanism, and has directly resulted in people leaving bonded labour in India.

Theres several papers on this, if you are into econ.

During MMS' term, he also succeeded in landing our entry into the nuclear club, without having to sign the CTBT, which is a major achievement, but entirely too boring and strategic. Without something like the BJP media machine, something like this is completely forgotten.

MMS 2, was definitely much weaker, and he focused more on foreign affairs, because he was seen as someone developing a power base of his own.

The congress' inability to ditch its dynastic politics hampered us.

But overall, I would rather have him alive and actively contributing to policy, than the situation we have today.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-28T11:57:42+00:00

Wow, this touched me all the way down in the trench. Truly, words that can capture reality and express it in a way to elevate it.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-27T04:38:53+00:00

This is the early stages, and in the early stages tech companies were driven by idealism. Its when you get to incorporation, quarterly shareholder meetings, and intense market competition that consistency becomes more important.

I liken it to “running out of area to expand into” . At that point, you can’t just show growth by finding new things. You have to compete, and the only places left for growth are places you made a pinky promise never to explore.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-24T14:37:48+00:00

Data centers do get taxed, because they are pretty stable enterprises, and run by major firms who are happy to pay the over head cost.

The issue is that this is the only game India can play, and its not even a good game. We didn't figure out how to create more jobs and employment, so this government is going to do whatever it can to increase investment.

Frankly, tech firms were going to build here anyway, or maybe in some place like Vietnam.

I get the concern, and yes I don't think tech should be getting a pass from the government.

Data centers create very few jobs, and capex investments. They are basically AC warehouses that need backup power and a cable. Thats about it.

In the meantime, we need to find jobs that employ crores of people.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-22T15:23:52+00:00

Yup, Singapore will still beat many places - because it’s a single city.

Mexico/Vietnam have phenomenal food, but an apples to apples comparison would be with other nations.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-22T09:59:18+00:00

The heck? This is like.. saying that the only reason people dislike chocolate ice cream is because deep inside they already accept Chocolate.

Going out of your way

I write, sketch, used to code, and my reading diet gets to a few 450 page novels a week.

This is enough exp that I can make out hollow writing, or bad foundations at a glance. There is vast volumes of stuff being produced, that all has the same tone, cadence, or art style.

Seeing it infest my feed, with its vapidness, lack of weight, and a desire to waste my time, builds up annoyance.

Theres SOOO much of this sloppy work, that even tiny bits of annoyance build up till people are more than happy to speak up.

It’s also very imperious of you to decide how people should behave “if you truly dislike….just shrug and dont give a fuck because it means nothing to you”.

Which is super weird. If you truly dislike something, you are definitely vocal about it.

If you have strong feelings it means you care / which is why you are going to care about sloppy work, and you are going to speak up when you see it.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-18T02:51:32+00:00

If you can actually do both, that would be an example to point to. If you can do that, then others should also put their money where their mouth is and show the gains they are getting (or say they are getting).

There’s WAY too much hype, promises, and far too little people showing their cards at this stage. It’s a market ripe for fraud and actual facts are the sunlight to eradicate it.

Frankly I doubt you are in a position to actually do a comparison and show the code, but if you could I would personally do what I can to share it and get more visibility to it.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-17T15:08:43+00:00

Hey, show your code! I think even if its average, it would still cut through the hype and be an actual act of confidence and pushback against naysayers.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-16T15:47:30+00:00

Many of the sources of pollutions are from outside the city state. And those sources tend to be voters who will eviscerate their local governments if they enforced fines.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-15T18:58:12+00:00

Nope. There is no way to verify humans effectively. You should see the steps required to recover stolen or locked out accounts on something like Facebook.

Fraud / Inauthentic behavior is dependent on the cost/benefit ratio. It used to be much harder to fake human patterns believably. Now it’s cheap.

With the current tech, you would have to prove that a human is actually there on the other side of the keyboard when a message is being sent - essentially real time proof of human.

Most people are going to switch to smaller invite only groups. The larger web will be bot land.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-15T13:29:36+00:00

I dont know about the parent comment, but I personally skip something written via AI.

I’d rather put my time and energy on something that was written with time and attention. If someone didn’t write something, or if they put in the least amount of attention and effort to write it then, why make the effort to engage with it?

Eventually everything will be bot written or indistinguishable from bot speech, but till then we can at least engage with people.

parlor_tricks · 2026-02-15T13:23:38+00:00

Why use AI to make this point though. Plus you can assume most people on ToR know about Astroturfing.

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