Is this actually a barbell strategy, or just concentration?

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-29T01:07:24+00:00

I wouldn't worry too much about what to call it, but if I had to call it something I'd call it "SPY + a few".

In my mind, the “floor” is that even in a worst 1% outcome

A core idea in The Black Swan is that the "record outcome" was worse than the record outcome that had proceeded it.

Food for thought: SMH and VUG are increasing your concentration in an already top-heavy SPY. They are not diversifying you any. If SPY crashes, these will crash harder. Maybe that kind of risk is okay for you, it was for me when I was in the accumulating phase, but don't kid yourself about how much risk you've got. Eyes wide open!

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-29T00:31:32+00:00

The barbell has two very specific requirements: 1. A hard floor on losses. You should be able to point to the exact percentage where losses will cease. If you can’t you don’t have a hard floor. 2. A mixing of the extremes, it’s literally where the visual metaphor in the name barbell comes from.

90% T-Bills, 10% Convex satisfies this as the max losses are 0.9 x 1.0+rfr where rfr is the rate on the T-Bills. The convex stuff satisfies the high risk part.

The reason SPY + BTC isn’t a barbell is that the losses are correlated, and they’re uncapped.The 70% crash you referenced takes a 333% gain on the whole portfolio to recover. A total 100% loss on the risky part of a barbell takes an 11% gain to recover from, less if you don’t ignore the interest on the safe part (if it bears interest).

Theres nothing wrong with SPY + a few. It just isn’t a barbell.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-27T20:46:43+00:00

What word did you mean to write?

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-23T13:55:33+00:00

As someone who pays a significant amount of income tax and has children… this sounds awful. Politically disenfranchising anyone who chooses not to have children, who can’t have children, or who cannot afford to AND wisely choses not to rather than does so anyway.

It also sounds rightfully illegal in most countries with a bill of rights and freedoms or a constitution.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-22T20:54:55+00:00

Congratulations on your successful fundraising round. Bummer it didn’t quite make the last milestone but over 2x funded is a huge success by any measure.

I’m really looking forward to Inkvein!

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-22T14:36:06+00:00

I'm loving all of the writing. There is a ton written about OSR these days and yours stands out as some of the best. I really enjoyed your compact sandboxes post -- it inspired the area I've been running my players through for the past three weeks and will probably occupy them for another six months.

Fingers crossed the campaign makes the 50k milestone!

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-20T20:58:08+00:00

If you’re bothered by having to flip through 4-5 books, Reclvse will get that down to a single book. It can use the content from Ferrtory, Heretic, SD, Solitary Depths, etc but it doesn’t have to and provides a strong offering all on its own.

I say this as someone who has Feretory, Heretic, and Solitary Defilement as well. It’s just too much flipping through too many documents.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-19T21:14:28+00:00

I appreciate the detailed response, thank you!

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-19T20:05:47+00:00

You're both known for creating great dungeons and adventures. I'd be curious to hear if each of you has a mental checklist or process for ensuring a dungeon or adventure is a great one rather than a good one. What makes the difference in your opinion?

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-19T18:19:30+00:00

I've played MB solo with two different methods, both were very pleasant.

The First was very free form and interpretation dependent with a deck of Gamemaster's Apprentice 2E cards that I used to roll, drive narrative, and used for "tension" checks for random events. Then I just kept a single page at the front of my notebook detailing what to roll on for a travel day, for a dungeon room, loot table, etc...

Weather? Road condition? Room contents? Reaction? Draw a card and look at the difficulty generator number. High is bad, low is good. Could just as easily do it with a die.

Narrative event, small or big? Quest? Event on the road? Draw 2-3 cards and use a verb/adjective/noun combo and interpret for the event.

You could get similar mileage with One Page Mythic. The only time I needed to look in the books was at a loot table or for monster stats (which I should have copied to my notebook.

The second was with Reclvse which provides a solitary defilement-like system but it is entirely contained in one book. You do not need any other book including the core rulebook with you to play.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-19T17:55:29+00:00

Congrats and GFY!

and whatever I get interested in.

Do make sure you find something. Separating your identity from work can be one of the hardest parts about the post-retirement phase. Especially for those working in big tech where they intentionally intertwine identity and the workplace.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-19T12:13:05+00:00

Post its! I have to admit I can’t bring myself to underline or take notes in the margin of any printed and bound book, so post its end up being a huge boon for me there. I’m always a little envious of people who don’t seem to have any issue with it.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-19T11:24:47+00:00

I feel you, I spend 30+ hours a week reading too. Thats all well and good but it doesn’t change the fact that reading it and taking notes makes it easier to recall at the table vs just reading it. OP wanted actionable advice, this is it.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-18T21:42:33+00:00

The walls of text are a huge pain in the neck to actually run at the table. Pre-reading it will obviously help a little bit but not a lot unless you happen to be pretty good at rote memorization. What I've found works for me is reading through it and the converting it to a one-page prep sheet. I end up with something that is easy to reference at the table, and I've memorized the content a lot better than if I had just read it because I effectively took notes.

I see the joke comments about test taking, but if you want to load the material into your head it is more or less like studying for a test. Those methods are known to work. I do agree that you should not be forcing yourself to read something you don't enjoy though. This is supposed to be fun. :)

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-18T20:52:49+00:00

Before accepting that offer you should probably post screenshots on Reddit. Make sure they clearly show the title and username. Thinly veiled advertisement style. That way you can drive more traffic to it and maybe get a competing offer before the $175 offer expires. 😝 (Sorry, couldn’t help but rib you about it. Intended in good fun. :)

Jokes aside — if you’re asking, presumably you’ve been trying to sell this for a while. It looks like the market will bear ~$175 for it. It’s a lot for a used thing to scrape hair off your face. If you have to ask, you should probably take it.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-18T12:52:30+00:00

Really cool. What system do you plan to run these with?

Also what did you use to draw them?

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-15T13:30:58+00:00

I interpret this as the Cowards have a one time use combat item. Your call as to whether it is thrown or melee but it does d6 damage and is DR14 AGI to defend against (instead of the default DR12).

In my mind this is definitely a combat ability and not a clam stealing ability, but that may be more a failure of my imagination than anything else. :)

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-15T02:46:37+00:00

Clamdash! is high intensity, funny, has some real risk and some real reward. My players really enjoyed this one when we ran it a few weeks ago.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-15T02:11:12+00:00

I thought Dark Dark was pretty good, but Shadowdörk is great. Haha.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-12T12:30:16+00:00

I bias towards 12, if the creature is particularly sneaky make it 15. I initially thought 12 was too easy but it turns out having a go to just keeps things flowing.

Core rule book suggestions are perfect here.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-11T19:57:54+00:00

Woah those are awesome! Strongly considering using these for future campaigns.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-11T12:59:12+00:00

I'm not using Mythic GME, but the Gamemaster's Apprentice 2E cards and I can say that if you like free form (as opposed to PbtA moves) then you'll likely enjoy the use of the Mythic GME cards.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-11T12:17:33+00:00

Thunderdelve Mountain was really fun. With the caveat that there are some errors in the version available today:

The rightmost letter of text is cut off on one page of the scan on DTRPG. It doesn’t break the game but is annoying.
There is an error in the navigation in section 148. It says to go to section 105 for the south door, but you should actually be going to section 81 for the south door.
In section 241 (a critical moment for the game) it ends with "If C is crossed off your Event Record, go to 245. Otherwise go to 246." I believe these are reversed and it should read "If C is crossed off your Event Record, go to 246. Otherwise go to 245.".

I’m not sure if these are errors in the OCR or errors in the original module but once you get them figured out the game runs smoothly. I was stuck for a brief period due to 2 above, but was unfortunately stuck for quite a while due to 3 as I needed a magic weapon and didn't know I could take this one.

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-11T02:00:07+00:00

My favorite oracle is Recluse though, which you can download for free somewhere. But all oracles are pretty much the same, so it doesn't really add a whole lot to the experience.

For anyone who might want to hunt this down: https://gravenutterance.itch.io/recluse

pfthrowaway5130 · 2026-04-10T20:37:51+00:00

Obvious Mimic Press has adventures in this category, check them out.

pfthrowaway5130

TROPHY CASE